Free NFL Prop Predictions - Week 6
by Jay Horne - 10/15/2009
The New York Jets newly acquired Braylon Edwards kept us out of the "green" last week in our prop bet selections. Edwards had a fair opening night, catching five passes for 64 yards, which was just over what we expected. Our props went 1-2 for Week 5, knocking us back to even on the season. However, rest assured we will get back in the profit column again this week. Perhaps the biggest story out of Week 6 was the Denver Broncos, who remained undefeated with their second straight huge win in an overtime thriller against the New England Patriots. Denver remains perfect on the season and we will give some side action for those jumping on the Broncos banwagon in this week's edition of free prop bets. Also, we will be releasing some of these prop bets from early betting lines that you can find at Sportsbook.com.
Prop Bet No. 1 - Kyle Orton Total Passing Yards vs. San Diego Chargers Week 6
The most surprising aspect to the Denver Broncos unblemished 5-0 start lies on the arm of QB Kyle Orton. Orton has silenced the nearly 99.9 percent of people who criticized Denver's lucrative trade that gave up Jay Cutler for Orton and a few first round picks over the next two years. However, the Broncos quarterback left the demons from Chicago in the windy city. The new attitude in the Mile High city has been completely opposite as the Broncos starter has completed 63 percent of his passes on the season while racking up 1,236 yards, seven touchdowns, and most importantly just one interception on the year. Orton had a big game last week while playing for the first time without a glove on his throwing hand.
The Broncos got behind the Patriots early, 10-0, and the Denver offense turned to their quarterback for 48 passing attempts. Orton not only completed 35, but had 330 passing yards equaling his best performance since Week 5 of 2008. The increase in passing attempts shows a lot of confidence in Orton and he played very well whether the glove played any type of factor or not. This week Orton is going to stay hot for a few reasons. The most important is that the San Diego defense is pretty close to shameful. The Chargers secondary gave up 333 yards to Ben Roethlisberger in their last outing and this same defense gave up 208 yards to JaMarcus Russell of the Raiders, which is pretty embarrassing as well. The Chargers offense can score points behind Phillip Rivers, which means this game could be high scoring and could be a lot of offensive possessions. Orton has been known in the past for being a streaky thrower and he will continue to play well at least for another week.
Pick - Over 245.5
Prop Bet No. 2 Will Either Team Score in the First 7 Minutes of the Game - Pittsburgh at Cleveland
This particular side action basically boils down to if either team will get off to a fast start. The Cleveland Browns can't score in any quarter of the football game much less be a factor in the first quarter. The Browns average an embarrassing 11 points per game. Cleveland has also scored just six points all season in the first quarter and has been shutout in the last three games in the opening quarter.
It's likely that they will not only be shutout again in the first quarter to a dynamic Pittsburgh defense, but definitely not in the first seven minutes. The Steelers, on the other hand, definitely have the ability to score quickly. However, being on the road should slow the offense down. Despite the Browns 1-4 record, their pass defense is fairly good. The Browns rank 10th in the league after five games, holding opponents to just 208 yards per game against some very good passing offenses. Roethlisberger's chances of firing out of the gates and scoring may be slimmer than expected. Also in the last seven meetings between these two division foes, only once has a team scored in the first seven minutes of the football game. Expect the trend to continue.
Pick - No
Prop Bet No. 3 - Total Points Score by Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens
We made a hit on the Vikings last week by predicting they would score more than 25.5 points against the Rams and we are going to have another play this week as we just may have the Vikings figured out. Brett Farve had another solid day against the Rams secondary last week and running back Adrian Peterson continued to somewhat struggle with just 69 yards. Everyone would expect Peterson to be in need of a big performance as he has been held under the century mark since the opener.
However, it may not happen again this week against one of the best rush defenses in the league. Baltimore is allowing just 76 yards per game this season, which is fourth best in the NFL. The Ravens secondary has given up 238 yards per game, but we warn those stats may be a bit misleading. Baltimore has already faced off with Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers, who combined for over 700 passing yards against them. The Ravens defense is much better than some of those numbers indicate and they will not give up a ton of yards to Farve this weekend. Expect Baltimore to make it tough on Peterson as well with a chance of handing the Vikings their first loss of the season. All indications point to a low scoring contest here, and the under is the play.
Pick - Under 24.5
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