NFL Totals Betting: Week 5 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/5/2011
It was one way or the other with the total line in the first three weeks of the season, but the oddsmakers sharpened things up last week as nine games went ‘over’ the total and seven games stayed ‘under’. For the fourth week in a row we cashed in on our ‘NFL totals betting picks, bringing our year-to-date record to 8-4.
Even if the oddsmakers have gotten their act together, there are always a few ‘bad NFL lines’ out there if you know where to look. The following are this week’s top three plays for NFL totals betting as provided by BetOnline.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
The Seahawks come into this game ranked 25th in the NFL in scoring with an average of just 14.5 points a game, but their defense has been almost as bad; giving up an average of 24.2 points a game, which is ranked No. 18.
The Giants continue to find ways to not only win games, but to manufacture points when they need them the most. They scored 15 fourth-quarter points in a win over Philadelphia in Week 3 and 21 points in the final quarter last week to pull out a win over Arizona.
The total line opened at 41.5 and has stayed steady so far. The total has gone ‘over’ in 11 of Seattle’s last 13 games against the NFC and in 12 of its last 15 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in 16 of New York’s last 23 games against the NFC and in four of its last six home games. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last seven meetings between the two.
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
The Eagles have proven one thing in their dismal 1-3 start. They still know how to score points on offense despite a minus -6 ratio in turnovers, and their defense has no clue how to hold on to a lead. Philadelphia has given up a combined 36 points in the fourth quarter in its last three games.
The Bills have gone the opposite route in their 3-1 start, with a couple of dramatic second-half rallies to pull out some wins. They are averaging 33.2 points a game, which is ranked fourth in the league, while allowing an average of 24 points a game on defense.
The total line opened at 48.5 and has crept a bit higher, but both these teams have the ability to light up the scoreboard with a quick-strike offense. The total has gone ‘over’ in 10 of Philadelphia’s last 11 road games and in Buffalo’s last five games overall.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Bengals lost a veteran quarterback and two veteran wide receivers from last year’s team and replaced them with rookie QB Andy Dalton and rookie WR A.J. Green. It is no surprise that these two have not exactly been lighting things up with an average of just 20 points per game.
The Jaguars cut their starting quarterback just days before their season opener and have already handed the reins over to another rookie, Blaine Gabbert. The result has been an even less effective offense that is averaging just 9.8 points a game, which is ranked dead-last in the league.
The total line opened at 35.5 and has climbed to 37 mainly because the betting public loves to take the ‘over’ on low numbers. This plays right into our favor given the fact that the total has stayed ‘under’ in six of Cincinnati’s last eight games as a three-point or less underdog. The total has also stayed ‘under’ in Jacksonville’s last four games overall.
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