NFL Totals Betting: Week 6 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/12/2011
Points were once again plentiful in the NFL in Week 5 as the total went ‘over’ in nine of the 13 games. This mirrored the trend for the first two weeks of the season when 71.8 percent of the games went ‘over’ as well. For the fifth-straight week we were correct on two-of-three of our NFL totals betting predictions, bringing our year-to-date record to 10-5.
The bye week has reduced the NFL schedule to just 13 games, making it a bit harder to mine out the value in the NFL lines, but there are always a few gems to be found. The following are this week’s top three NFL picks for totals betting as provided by BetOnline.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville will never be considered an offensive juggernaut this season with an average of just 11.8 points a game, but its defense has done a fairly good job at holding the score down; giving up an average of 23 points per game.
The Steelers’ offense has also struggled to put points on the board, but their defense remains as stout as ever in giving up an average of just 17.8 points a game. This team is at its best when grinding games out on the ground and letting its defense do the rest.
This line opened at 39 and has spiked-up to 40, which is the right direction for this play. The total has stayed ‘under’ in five of Jacksonville’s last seven games following a straight-up loss. It has also stayed ‘under’ in Pittsburgh’s last four home games against a team with a losing record on the road.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans’ high-flying offense is off to another great start with an average of 452 total yards and 31.4 points a game. The Saints’ defense gave up 27 points to Carolina last week and is giving up an average of 25 points a game.
Tampa Bay is 3-2 on the year, but it could be a case of smoke and mirrors with an offense that is ranked 20th overall and averaging just 17.4 points a game. Its defense is also giving up an average of 25 points a game and is ranked 23rd in total yards allowed.
The opening line has ticked slightly upward from 49 points as the current trends paint the picture of a high-scoring game. The past trends between these two paint a different picture as the total has stayed ‘under’ in the last five meetings. Last season, New Orleans won 31-6 on the road and Tampa returned the favor with a 23-13 road victory later in the year.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
We have yet to figure out what to expect from Tony Romo and the Cowboys this season, but three of their four games have gone ‘over’ the total and ,on an average, they are giving up as many points as they are scoring (25). Dallas is also coming off a bye week, so it has had two weeks to prepare for this game.
New England has scored 30 or more points in its first five games and is ranked second in the league in scoring with an average of 33 points a game. This team has needed to score this many points with a defense that is ranked dead-last in the league in total yards allowed and is giving up an average of 24 points a game. It’s little wonder that the total has gone ‘over’ in four of its first five games.
The line in this one resembles a college game, and it has actually gone up after opening at 54. The betting public loves to bet ‘over’ on games like this, and while we normally do not like to follow their lead, the past and present trends for a high-scoring game are just too strong to ignore. The total has gone ‘over’ in seven of the Cowboys last eight road games and in 17 of their last 22 games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in 20 of the Patriots last 26 games overall.
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