This Week in NFL Betting By the Numbers
by Darin Zank - 1/18/2012
It's Final Four time in the NFL, also known as conference championship weekend, which means that Sunday night we'll know the matchup for Super Bowl XLVI (that's 46 for all you non-Romans out there). As far as last weekend was concerned there were several interesting numbers to come out of it, like four, which was the number of touchdowns the Saints and 49ers combined to score in the last four minutes of their divisional-round thriller; and six, as in the number of touchdown passes Tom Brady threw vs. Denver; and three, as in the number of points the Ravens and Texans combined to score in the second half of their game; and 12, which was the average number of beers it took the average Packer fan to drown his sorrows after the loss to the Giants.
Looking ahead to this weekend we've unearthed a few other numbers that might be of interest.
6-2 – The against-the-spread record of the home teams this playoff season.
6-2 – The record on the 'over/unders' this playoff season. Defense and inclement weather often play their parts during the NFL postseason, but not yet this year.
4 – The number of turnovers the Giants forced the Packers into last week. And it should have been five, if not for a blown call on a replay.
11 – The number of turnovers the 49ers have committed all season, including their playoff victory over New Orleans.
76 – The ATS winning percentage of teams that committed fewer turnovers than their opponents this season.
27-20 – The score by which the Niners beat the Giants back in Week 10. The Giants won the statistical battle that day, outrushing the Niners 93-77, outgaining them 395-305 and holding the ball for nearly 35 minutes. San Francisco just made the big plays when needed. As of Wednesday morning Bookmaker is listing the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites over New York for Sunday's NFC Championship Game (6:30 p.m. EST Eastern, Fox).
247 – Rushing yards for Baltimore RB Ray Rice in the Ravens' last two games vs. New England. Baltimore won the first of those games, 33-14, in the divisional round two years ago, and could have won the second game, a 23-20 overtime loss 10 months later. As for the AFC Championship Game this Sunday (3 p.m. EST Eastern, CBS) Bookmaker is listing the Patriots as seven-point faves over the Ravens.
9-3 – The straight up record of home teams in the last 12 conference championship games. And they've gone 7-5 ATS over that span. So while there have been upsets at this level of the playoffs, home-field advantage, in general, still rules.
+450 - The price Bookmaker is offering on a Harbaugh-vs.-Harbaugh coaching matchup in the Super Bowl. Bookmaker is also listing a Baltimore victory over San Francisco at +800, and a Niners win over the Ravens at +900. The lowest price Bookmaker is offering on an exact Super Bowl outcome is +200 on New England beating San Francisco; the highest price is +1,300 on the Ravens beating the Giants.
3-5 – Betting record of your humble correspondent so far this playoff season. We won last week with the Patriots and Giants, but lost on the Saints and Ravens (by a stinking half-point). This week we'll try to get to .500 by backing the two dogs, Baltimore and New York.
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