Tim Tebow and Matt Flynn 2012 Season Props Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 3/22/2012
It’s not too often that a guy who sets a Green Bay Packers record with 480 yards passing and six touchdowns (Green Bay has had a few pretty good quarterbacks, after all) in a game gets overlooked when he changes teams, but that was definitely the case last week when free agent Matt Flynn signed with the Seattle Seahawks. Flynn, the Packers’ backup behind NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers a season ago, was vastly overshadowed by the Peyton Manning circus.
I tie Manning and Flynn together because here I give you a story on some props for the 2012 season involving Flynn with the Seahawks and Tim Tebow with the New York Jets. Of course, the Broncos traded Tebow to the Jets this week after Manning signed with Denver. Certainly some of the teams who wanted Manning and Tebow were also interested in Flynn, largely the Miami Dolphins (Seattle kicked the tires on Manning as well).
Flynn has started only two games in his NFL career but got a three-year, $26 million contract from Seattle. Flynn was a seventh-round pick by Green Bay out of LSU in 2008. He quickly became Rodgers' backup and played in parts of 34 games over the past four seasons. He started once during the 2010 season, nearly leading the Packers to a win at New England when Rodgers was out with a concussion (Green Bay wouldn’t lose again that season on the way to the Super Bowl). Then came that huge game last year in the season finale against Detroit when Rodgers was on the bench because Green Bay had already clinched the best record in the NFL. In his regular-season career, Flynn has completed 62 percent of his passes and thrown nine touchdowns against five interceptions.
Here are the ‘over/under’ totals at Bovada for Flynn this season (all options at -115): 3,600 yards passing, 20.5 touchdown passes, 61 percent completions, 16.5 interceptions. Obviously it’s hard to trend Flynn’s career with the limited playing time. But he has a terrific running back in Marshawn Lynch and some solid receiving options in Sidney Rice (if he can stay healthy), Doug Baldwin, Mike Williams (if he’s healthy), Golden Tate, Ben Obomanu and tight end Zach Miller.
Last season, Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson, who is nothing short of terrible, threw for 3,091 yards on 60.2 percent completions with 14 touchdowns and 13 picks in 15 games. By the way, Seahawks Coach Pete Carroll says that Jackson could still beat out Flynn for the starting job, but I highly doubt that. Flynn, at worst, is more accurate than Jackson. Throwing for 3,600 yards is only 225 a game if a QB plays all 16. Still, I would go under the yards, over the touchdowns and completion percentage and picks. The last time the Seahawks brought in a Packers backup QB it worked out pretty well as Matt Hasselbeck was a Seahawk for a decade.
You can also bet on whether the Seahawks make the playoffs in 2012. ‘Yes’ is at +150 and ‘no’ at -200. Seattle finished last season 7-9, the same record as the year before when it won the NFC West. From Week 10 on in 2011, the Seahawks were 5-3 and their three losses were by a combined 11 losses. Outside of its six games in the division, Seattle faces this schedule in 2012: vs. St. Louis, Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, New England and New York Jets and at Chicago, Detroit, Carolina, Buffalo and Miami. That looks like 9-7 at best, which probably isn’t enough for the division or a wild-card spot. So take no there.
As for Tebow, he isn’t expected to be the starter with New York, but you know the fans will start chanting his name as soon as equally erratic Mark Sanchez throws his first pick. I think the Jets made a huge mistake by signing Tebow as it’s clear Sanchez’s confidence already is shaken and that he has lost some players in the locker room. The plan for now is for Tebow to be a change-of-pace player, running the Wildcat and other gimmick schemes that Head Coach Rex Ryan and new Offensive Coordinator Tony Sparano like – no team ran the Wildcat better than the Dolphins when Sparano was the head coach there. Tebow probably gets in for only 5-6 plays a game unless Sanchez gets hurt or is lousy.
The over/under for Tebow rushing TDs this season is four and passing TDs at one. And will Tebow get at least one start? Yes is -150 and no at +110. Tebow threw for 12 touchdowns and rushed for six last season in 14 games for Denver, 11 of which were starts. I can definitely see him coming in for those short-yardage situations at the goal line. Plus, I do think he starts multiple games even though Sanchez has missed only one game in his three-year career. So take the over on both as well as the yes on starting.
Who knows, you might win the Flynn and Tebow props if they face off against one another late in the season (schedule out next month). By the way, the Jets don’t face the Broncos in the 2012 regular season.
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