10 Reasons Why the Bookies are Cleaning Up this NFL Season
by Doc's Sports - 9/23/2013
Well, it’s certainly been a slow start to the NFL season. But fear not! There are still 14 regular season weeks left and a full playoffs remaining, with everything leading up to what should be a snowy, blizzardy mess of a Super Bowl in Giants Stadium this February. There are a lot more twists and turns and ups and downs to this season, and we’re looking forward to all of them.
The first three weeks of this season have been as unpredictable as we at Doc’s Sports can ever remember seeing this early in the year. The books have been slaughtering the players through the first three weeks – even the biggest, sharpest bettors in Las Vegas – after back-to-back years of the bettors having the upper hand.
There are a few reasons for the slow start by the sharp bettors. And in speaking with some of our handicappers, these are some of the reasons we think can explain it:
10. Things are always a little screwy the first few weeks of the season.
Remember last year when the Cardinals beat the Patriots in Week 2 as a 14-point underdog? With the new rules shortening practice time, these NFL teams aren’t as sharp coming into the season as they used to be. Things will normalize as the year goes on and the cream will rise to the top. But right now there is a lot of sloppy, uneven play.
9. Terrible quarterback play.
There are so many young, inconsistent quarterbacks that it is difficult to get a grasp on who is going to play well each week. Seriously, where are Brad Johnson, Jake Delhomme and Mark Brunell when you need them? Even guys like Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller could be counted on to suck every week, which is more than we can say for Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, E.J. Manuel, etc.
8. Scoring is easy enough where teams can’t hold onto leads.
It used to be that once your team got up three scores, your bet was pretty secure. But now huge comebacks are a weekly staple. Green Bay is the most recent example, blowing a 30-14 lead and losing outright to Cincinnati.
7. Miley Cyrus and these damn kids.
I’m joking here. But one thing that has been an issue is that, like the quarterbacks, more rookies than ever are playing right from the get-go. And because of a lot of injuries to star players and important players for teams, young players are being forced into action sooner than they should be. They are inconsistent.
6. More parity between teams.
The last two weeks saw 22 of 32 games decided by a touchdown or less. That means that everything is coming down to those last three or four minutes, and bets are being determined by just one or two snaps. That is a tiny margin for error, thanks to those communists in the league office who skew things so that all teams are nearly equal.
Which leads to:
5. The points are in play more than ever.
Only about 40 to 45 of the 256 games each regular season feature a team winning outright but losing against the spread, and that has been consistent over the last 20 years. The first two weeks of the season 10 of 32 games (31 percent) saw the number come into play. Allen Eastman said that’s by far the highest number he has seen in his 20 years of keeping track.
4. President Obama.
Because it’s all his fault!
3. Traditional powers have fallen off the map.
Teams like the Giants, Steelers, Patriots, Falcons, Packers and 49ers have been some of the best bets in football the last five years. Those teams have combined to go just 4-14 ATS. And Houston, a Super Bowl contender, is 0-3 ATS. There is always some turnover at the top. But no one saw ALL of those teams being terrible at the window.
2. This is a slight regression.
The bettors got the better of the books early in the last three seasons, especially in games on Monday and Thursday night football in primetime. Things were going to even out. At some point they will swing back in our favor, especially as the books are forced to post smaller and smaller numbers.
It is tough to trust a group of people whose collective number of concussions outnumbers the population of Texas. Seriously, what are these guys thinking?
It’s been a slow start. But like we said, it is a long season. We are in it for the long haul. We are staying positive and going to continue to look forward. That is why we practice good money management for our clients. You have to be able to weather a few bad weeks. The pendulum is going to swing the other way, and when it does we’ll be back on top like we normally are.
Doc’s Sports is having a brilliant overall football season. Robert Ferringo and Jason Sharpe have shown a profit so far this year. Strike Point Sports just hit their NFL Game of the Year. Allen Eastman’s NFL 411 System has hit over 60 percent for over five years. Things will be fine!
Thanks for your patience, and let’s get them this week!
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