Good Bet, Bad Bet: The Best and Worst NFL Wagers
by George Monroy - 11/7/2013
The good teams in the NFL are always on bettors’ radars. By this point in the year every gambler knows about the Kansas City Chiefs still being undefeated and providing bettors with excellent value on the season. Every bettor also knows that the Denver Broncos score points at a ridiculous rate, and that they have not gone “under” their posted total once this season. However, there are many other good and bad bets in the NFL that most gamblers might not know about. Let’s take a look at some of the best and worst wagers in this edition of “good bet, bad bet”.
Good bet: St. Louis Rams and the “over”
The Broncos may be the best over team in the league with a perfect 8-0 record, but they are on everyone’s radar at this point in the year, and the oddsmakers are starting to shade the lines heavily. Denver’s total opened at 57.5 points for this week’s road matchup against the San Diego Chargers, and the over is still receiving a whopping 96 percent of the action at BookMaker. The Rams may not be on anyone’s radar—especially with a 3-6 record—but they are a one of the NFL’s best over bets with a surprising 7-2 record against their set totals. St. Louis and their opponents have failed to score 45 combined points or more only once this season, and they have gone over 50 points five times in nine games. St. Louis’ last four totals were set at 44, 39.5, 41.5 and 42 points, respectively—the team went over in all of them except one. Let other bettors take Denver’s crazy totals in the mid-to-upper 50s, and wager on the more reasonable numbers that the Rams are getting.
Bad bet: Atlanta Falcons on the road
The Falcons have been horrible this season and are currently sitting on a 2-6 ATS and SU record. The one area where the team has been particularly atrocious is on the road. Atlanta has not been able to cover a single spread when playing outside of the Georgia Dome, and the Falcons are losing by an average of 12 points per game. Wagering on the Falcons during any situation is probably not a good idea this season, but doing so on the road is one of the worst wagers in the entire NFL.
Good bet: Dallas Cowboys as an underdog
The Cowboys are currently 5-4 and sitting atop the messy NFC East. The team, however, has the best record as in underdog in the entire league. Dallas is 4-0 against the spread when receiving points and has covered in those situations by an average of six points per game. As underdogs, Dallas has received an average of four points per game and has continued to be the best team in that category for bettors to wager on. This week the Cowboys are getting seven points as a road underdog against a New Orleans Saints team that lost to the New York Jets last week. According to BookMaker, 76 percent of the action is on the Saints to cover the spread. This matchup might be a great situation to go against the public and wager on a Cowboys team that covers more spreads than most people realize.
Bad bet: Philadelphia Eagles as a home favorite
Philadelphia has received a lot of media attention since the beginning of the year, and most fans know all about coach Chip Kelly’s struggling offensive system and quarterback issues. In general, the team has been decent ATS-wise and currently has a 4-5 record. However, the Eagles have been horrendous as a home favorite, and they are currently sitting on a league-worst 0-4 record. The team has lost in those situations by an average of 8.8 points and is not coming close to covering those spreads. A few fans and experts believe that Philadelphia might have turned things around by handing over the quarterbacking duties to Nick Foles, but it is probably in the best interest of bettors to stay away from the Eagles as a home favorite at this point in the year.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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