Monday Night Football Betting Stats and Trends
by George Monroy - 8/30/2013
“Monday Night Football” might be the most anticipated day of the football week. It’s a day for bettors to try and get even or extend their profit from the previous week as well as the one day that football is thrust into the national spotlight with a prime-time television slot. MNF has become an America institution, and it is the one game of the week that has all the attention of the general public and gambling world. Let’s take a closer look at MNF over the last three seasons and see if we can find any betting trends or stats that might help bettors find an edge over the sportsbooks and squeak out a profit this season.
Over the last three years, the home team has gone 28-23 over 51 Monday Night Football games. In 2010 the home team went 6-11, in 2011 the home team went 13-4 and in 2012 the home team went 9-8. Over that time frame there really are no discernable trends that a bettor could rely on, and even though the home team has had a clear advantage over the last three years, during any given season the road team can come out on top.
The margin of victory stats for “Monday Night Football” games seem to have a little weight that gamblers can hold onto. The average margin of victory for Monday night games over the last three seasons has been 13.8 points per game. In 2010 the margin was 14.47 points, in 2011 the margin was 15.11 points and in 2012 the margin was 12 points. The one take away from the scores is that blowouts happen a lot during Monday night games. Over the last three seasons 31 of the 51 games played ended with up a margin of victory of eight points or more.
MNF home team records and margin of victory:
2012: 9-8, 12 points
2011: 13-4, 15 points
2010: 6-11, 14 points
The totals scores over the last three seasons have varied widely from an average of 46 points per game to 40 points per game. In 2010 the average Monday game total was 46 points, while in 2011 the average was 43 points and in 2012 the average dipped to 40 per game. In general, MNF scores tend to gravitate toward the extremes; the average score over the last three years has been 40 points per game, but 20 games have gone under 40, and 16 games have gone over 50 points.
Monday games have been become lower-scoring affairs over the last three seasons, and that decrease could have something to do with the addition of Thursday night games, which throw a wrench into a NFL schedule and recovery throughout the season. There are not many trends that pop out for “Monday Night Football” games, but that does not mean that bettors cannot make a profit from betting the final game of the football week. Blowouts of eight points or more have happened 60 percent of the time during Monday games over the last three years. The hard part is trying to be on the correct side of those blowouts. The main takeaway from examining MNF games is that there are no easy stats or trends that jump right out. Gamblers need to stay sharp, do their homework, and handicap games to the best of their ability. Remember to bet wisely, and may the spread be with you.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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