NFL Totals Betting: Week 13 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/27/2013
For the second week in a row the oddsmakers kept the total lines razor-sharp in the NFL, with seven games going “over” the closing line and seven staying “under”. I was also able to duplicate my record on my top three plays at 2-1 to raise my overall mark on the year to 21-14-1. This in turn took my winning percentage back over 58 percent.
Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I have been pouring over the stats and betting trends for all the matchups on Sunday’s slate in an effort uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 13 in the NFL based on lines by 5Dimes.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 48.5
The surprising Cardinals come into this matchup at 7-4 and very much in the playoff picture in the NFC. While some of the credit for this success has to be given to the steady play of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, the main reason has been a highly-effective Arizona defense. This unit is ranked second in the NFL against the run and is allowing an average of just 20.3 points a game.
Nick Foles has earned the starting role at quarterback for Philadelphia after a strong performance in the past three games. The Eagles are now 6-5 on the year and tied with Dallas atop the NFC East, but this is another team that owes a great deal of its recent success to its defense. This unit is still ranked 17th in the league in points allowed (23.6), but it has not given up more than 21 points the last seven games.
The total line for this game opened at 48.5, and it has held steady throughout the week. Weather should not be a factor on Sunday, but two defenses playing at a high level will. The total has stayed under in five of the Cardinals last seven games against the NFC and in the Eagles last four games at home. Look for this one to turn into a grinder that stays well below the current total line.
Game Pick: UNDER
St. Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 42
The Rams are one of those NFL teams this season that refuses to go away when it comes to the playoff race. They improved to 5-6 with two straight wins, but the impressive part of this run is a revitalized offense under the guidance of Kellen Clemens at quarterback. They tagged Indianapolis for 38 points in Week 11, and this past Sunday they streaked past the Bears 42-21 on the strength of 258 yards on the ground.
San Francisco pounded out a much-needed victory over Washington this past Monday night to improve to 7-4 on the year. The most encouraging take-away from that win was the play of Colin Kaepernick. He threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns while completing 62.5 percent of his throws. This is a much-welcomed sign for an offense that had been struggling to find the end zone the past few weeks.
The total line for this NFC West matchup opened at 43, and it has dropped to 42 on 5Dimes most recent board. That is the perfect direction for me as I actually see this game turning into somewhat of a shootout in relative terms for these two teams. The 49ers won the first meeting this season 35-11, and the total has now gone over in five of the last seven meetings.
Game Pick: OVER
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 48.5
The Bengals hold a two-game lead over both Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the AFC North at 7-4 after rolling over Cleveland 41-20 before last week’s bye. In Week 8 they blasted the Jets 49-9, so despite Andy Dalton’s inconsistencies at quarterback this season, this team can still put points on the board.
San Diego keeps rolling along at 5-6, which has it right in the middle of the wild-card race in the AFC. The Chargers have shown major inconsistency when it comes to winning and losing games, but they still have one of the top passing offenses in the league behind Philip Rivers. They are ranked fourth in passing yards (296.9) while averaging 24.5 points a game and coming off a 41-38 victory over Kansas City.
The total for this AFC clash opened at 48, and it has risen slightly to 48.5. Weather will not be a factor in San Diego, so it should remain a fast track for both teams. While these two do not play each other every season, the total has gone over in six of the last seven meetings dating back to 2002. Look for both teams to exploit one another with their big-play capability as the points add up quickly in this one.
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 21-14-1
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