The Week 9 NFL betting lines have been shuffling all week long and should continue to do so as we approach game time. These five games have experienced the biggest shifts so far. Read on to find out where the smart money is.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -8

This line has moved up a whole two points for the home favorite. The general betting public is catching up to what the experts know – Atlanta is a terrible, injury-prone football team this year. The injuries to the Falcons have been most notable on the offense, which has still managed to put up points no matter who is catching the ball for Matt Ryan. Where injuries have caught up to Atlanta, however, is on the defensive side of the football. Atlanta has allowed opponents to score at least 23 points against in every game so far, and the D is the main culprit for Atlanta’s 2-5 ATS mark this season. 

Meanwhile, Carolina looks like they could be one of the best teams in the NFC despite their record. It’s taken some time for Cam Newton and the Panthers, but they have destroyed every team they’ve played over the past three weeks while maintaining a 3-0 ATS record. A team’s overall reputation has a way of affecting NFL betting lines. But with the way both of these teams are playing in the here and now, the Panthers look like a runaway lock to not only decimate Atlanta but cover this increasing spread. Heavy money has already pushed this line, so if you like the Panthers, do not hesitate to jump on them right now.  By the time Sunday arrives, the home-bound Panthers could very well be double-digit favorites.

CarbonSports Market Manager Michael Stewart’s perspective:
“We opened the Panthers -7.5, and with nearly 65% of the early money on the favorite we made a small move on the Panthers, making them -8.  8.0 is pretty much a dead number in the NFL, so again it’s only a small adjustment.  We suspect the market will continue to bet the Panthers and we will probably end up going a bit higher to 8.5 at some point this weekend.  So far it’s not that big of a game for us volume wise, and the number on this game is pretty much dead on.”

New Orleans Saints -7.0 at New York Jets

This line opened at -4.5 for the travelling Saints and could get to at least a touchdown’s worth of points by Sunday. New York is still licking their wounds after suffering their worst beating of the season, and the overall sentiment is that this team has run out of luck. They’ve barely been getting by through the first half of the season as it is, and facing the Saints is the opposite of a picnic. The Jets have done enough defensively throughout the year to encourage some backing, but after last weekend’s shameful performance their bandwagon seems to be abandoning ship. Those that still see value in Rex Ryan’s crew can afford to wait until Sunday because nearly all of the action is coming in on New Orleans. This game may be graded a tad low, but that’s because the Saints are playing outdoors in what’s anticipated to be cold weather. Is that enough to deter you from an otherwise tempting NFL spread? It hasn’t stopped anyone else.

CarbonSports Market Manager Michael Stewart’s perspective:
“We opened the Saints -5, and were immediately hit with Saints money.  We quickly went to -5.5 and eventually -6 to try and stem the tide of Saints money.  Going to -6 didn’t really stop our bettors from backing the road favorite, so late Monday evening we went to -6.5, and since then we’ve started to see Jets money.  So far over 80 percent of the money is on the Saints.”

Tennessee Titans -3.0 at St. Louis Rams

What started out as a -3.5 number for the visiting Titans has dropped all the way down to the key NFL number of 3.0. The general betting public seems to believe that Kellen Clemons and Zach Stacy are good enough to make the Rams a worthy play. The problem is that this is a short-sighted opinion. St. Louis took advantage of a Seattle team that has a weird habit of playing well below their potential on the road. This isn’t meant to take away from what the Rams accomplished on Monday, but it serves as a reminder that one game doesn’t offset a half-season full of miscues. It’s worth noting that St. Louis is also on a shortened week.

The smart money sits squarely in Tennessee’s corner. They have been a consistent spread-busting team no matter where a game has been played. Nobody seems that concerned that they struggled against San Francisco two weeks ago, because the Niners are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Well rested, re-focused and underappreciated by the masses, the Titans should have no trouble dispatching the Rams in this game. At least, that’s how the sharps see it.

CarbonSports Market Manager Michael Stewart’s perspective:
“We opened the Titans -3, and so far betting has been pretty even in this game.  With just over 60% of the action on the favorite, I could see us adjust the juice on the Titans from -3 -105 to -3 -110 or -115, but I doubt we’ll have to move off this key number of 3.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks -15.5

This NFL betting line is the largest of the weekend, but this one has also been dancing all over the place. It’s been as high as -17.0 at times and has recently sunk to just -15.5, where it seems to be settling. Though the majority of the action is coming in on Seattle as expected, there is a heavy amount of smart money that still likes the 1-6 ATS Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Injuries to Sidney Rice (out) and Marshawn Lynch (probably) have also generated some interest in Tampa, even though Mike Williams has suddenly hit the IR. There is a slim opening here for the Bucs even though there’s a longstanding rule that you don’t bet against Seattle at home. Enough gamblers seem brave enough to believe that the winless Bucs can somehow scrape together enough against a banged-up Seattle squad that hasn’t had much time to rest this week after a rough-and-tumble-game against the aforementioned Rams.

CarbonSports Market Manager Michael Stewart’s perspective:
“We open Seahawks -17, the highest spread on the NFL board.  We thought that even though they didn’t cash their tickets on the Seahawks in their MNF game vs the Rams, action was so lopsided in that game that we wanted to protect ourselves from that kind of exposure again.  Our bettors have actually backed off the Seahawks bandwagon and are actually backing the Bucs in this game.  It’s not exactly a big volume game so far, but we did feel we needed to come off 17 and go down to a more bettable number on the Seahawks at -16.5, a number that we’ve seen dead even action on.  We won’t be moving off 16.5 any time soon.”

Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at Houston Texans
The oddsmakers are absolutely kicking themselves for opening this game at -1.0 for the visiting Colts. The Texans have done nothing to earn anyone’s trust in NFL betting this season. They are one of the worst cover teams in the league and are playing without Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Even though Case Keenum showed flashes of ability from time to time, he hasn’t established himself as a reliable betting asset. That’s why this line has shifted heavy and hard already and why it will continue to do so. There are some that still feel the Texans have a fighting chance, but nearly all the action is caving in on Indianapolis’s side of the line. This line will only get bigger and bigger for Andrew Luck and company as game time approaches, so if you like Indy, then now is the time to grab this betting line.

CarbonSports Market Manager Michael Stewart’s perspective:
“We opened the Colts a ‘pick’em,’ and man, did we open a short number.  Money poured in on the Colts, and we went from pick, to -1, -1.5, -2, -2.5 and eventually had to go to Colts -3.  So far this is the most lopsided game we’ve seen this week.  We believe Colts -3 on the road versus a Texans team that is in a must-win situation is already inflated enough.  I can’t see us going to 3.5 in this game, and if we do have to make another move, we will raise the juices on the Colts -3 to-3 -115 or -3 -120.”

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