Free NFL Betting Picks for Sunday: Pro Football Totals Predictions
by CarbonSports - 11/13/2014
Pick #1: Seattle/KC Over 42
A pair of 6-3 SU teams meet in KC this week as both are trying to hunt down a top division rival. Seattle is looking up at 8-1 SU Arizona, while the Chiefs are behind 7-2 SU Denver, so getting a win this week is paramount for both sides. To do so, cashing in with touchdowns rather than settling for FG's is important for both sides as I believe we see the points rack up in this contest.
Seattle's offense has started to find it's groove as they've scored 30 or more the past two weeks and have scored 21+ in eight of nine games this year. Those point totals dip a little bit when on the road thanks to a 13-9 win in Carolina, but with RB Marshawn Lynch running over people at will these days, the Seahawks have rediscovered their identity. When you know who you are and how to attack opponents, success will take care of itself, and with a 5-1 O/U mark after their last six victories, Seattle's primed to put up 21+ this week.
The Seahawks are also on a 16-5 O/U run during the month of November and 21-10 O/U after scoring 30+ in their last outing, so the scoring shouldn't slow down that much against a good defense from KC.
Kansas City is going to have to score 21+ (most likely) if they want to defend their home turf and get the win. For five straight weeks the Chiefs have cashed 'under' tickets for bettors as their defense has tightened things up. KC has allowed 13, 10 and 7 points the past three weeks but it's not exactly like the Rams, Jets, and Bills are known for explosive offenses.
More importantly though, Kansas City prefers to do the bulk of their scoring at home as they've put up 41, 34, and 24 points in their last three home games. HC Andy Reid won't be shy about taking some shots down the field against this Seahawks defense as he's seen recent opponents like the Giants and Raiders have success against them with that gameplan recently.
These two teams don't play that much anymore, but five of the last seven meetings have gone over their respective total, and with everyone betting this 'under' thinking it's going to be a defensive struggle, I believe there is more value in the high side of this relatively low number.
Pick #2: Detroit/Arizona Over 42
The top two teams in the NFC meet out in the desert this week and both have gotten to the top of the heap thanks to their great defensive play this season. Arizona has only allowed one opponent (Denver) to score more than 20 points against them all year, while the Lions have only allowed three opponents (Atlanta, New Orleans, Carolina) to put up 21+. So what makes me think this game will fly over the number?
For one, the Lions offense is healthy again and after it took awhile for the likes of Pettigrew and Megatron to get back into the flow of things, a game and another full week of practice will have them rearing to go. With Megatron back at WR, QB Matthew Stafford is more inclined to take shots deep down the field. Although Arizona's secondary is arguably the best in the league, they can't cover all the weapons the Lions have and that means someone will be open 10-15 yards down the field every play. Detroit is 11-5 O/U after covering the spread in their last outing, and eight of the last 10 times they've faced Arizona the 'over' has come in.
Arizona has to move on without QB Carson Palmer as he's lost for the year, but Drew Stanton has started a couple times already this season and is a much more mobile QB. Stanton will be out to prove his worth to his teammates (and fans) as many believe this season might trend downward in a hurry now that Palmer is gone and that means we should see some big plays on the horizon.
Arizona is 4-1 O/U after winning by 14+ points and 7-3 O/U in their last 10 at home against a team with a winning record on the road. If you take it back even further you'll find that the Cards are 41-18 O/U after allowing 14 points or less in their last outing (1-2 O/U this year), and with possible home field advantage on the line in the playoffs, it will be the offenses that show up for both teams.
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