Pick #1: Atlanta/Tampa Bay Under 46 (-110)

In late September these two NFC South rivals met on Thursday Night Football and it was an ugly game for Buccaneers fans from start to finish. Atlanta ended up winning that game 56-14 as they completely dismantled Tampa Bay on their fast indoor track inside the Georgia Dome. Well this week, fresh off a bye, the Falcons head out to Tampa to take on the Bucs in the rematch and I don't believe we will see the points come so easily this time around.

Atlanta's offense hasn't come close to matching the success they had that day in five games since then. The Falcons haven't actually won a game since then and four of those five losses have come by double digits. They've scored 21, 7, 13, and 20 points the last three weeks as it's only a matter of time before HC Mike Smith gets canned because this team has too much talent to be 2-6 SU on the year. This offense is in shambles right now and they needed a lot more time than a simple bye week to fix things. They are 0-4 O/U when coming off a loss and with the calendar flipping over to November, their 2-12 O/U run in the month comes into play as well.

At 1-7 SU, Tampa isn't much better as they've only scored more than 17 points twice in eight games this year. At home they have yet to top that 17-point barrier and for as much as they'd love to get revenge for that beating they took earlier, they just don't have the talent on offense to grab a huge lead and run away with things.

With the division rematch flip-flop theory suggesting we flip the script from the first meeting, I am backing that train of thought this week as I think we see this game finish in the low 40's.

Pick #2: Chicago/Green Bay Under 53.5 (-110)

This is another division rematch game that would suggest an 'under' play after Green Bay beat the Bears 38-17 in Chicago a few weeks back. Both teams are coming off a bye so these defenses will be rested and prepared, and the weather is starting to get a little chilling this time of year in Green Bay.

Taking Packers games under has not been a great bet all season as they are 7-1 O/U this year with the lone low-scoring game coming indoors @ Detroit. But the Packers are 1-6 O/U the last seven years after their bye and five of the last six meetings between these two here at Lambeau have stayed low. In fact, even with the 'over' earlier this year, the last 14 games between these two are 3-11 O/U and many of those low-scoring games have come later in the year when the weather starts to become a factor in Chicago and Green Bay.

Chicago is 2-13 O/U as road dogs of more than 5 points when coming off a loss and they are 3-12 O/U the last 15 times they've been division dogs of less than eight points. QB Jay Cutler is having some serious mechanical/confidence issues at the moment and because of it I expect the Bears to come out quite conservative early on and try to establish a rhythm for Cutler. Chicago won't be able to trade score for score with the Packers like the 1^st meeting taught them, so this rested and prepared defense will have to step up big if Chicago wants to pull the upset.

I'm not sure the Bears will be able win this game outright, but their defense will do enough to keep this one under 50+ points.

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