NFL Futures Odds: Most Passing Yards Quarterback Predictions
by CarbonSports - 8/15/2014
The NFL has clearly become a passing league over the past decade and without a good QB chances are making the playoffs is nothing more than a pipe dream. The last three seasons have all seen the eventual winner of this award eclipse the 5,000 passing yards mark and chances are we will see the same thing happen this season. Peyton Manning broke the single-season record by one yard with 5,476 yards last year in that high-powered Denver offense and with the Broncos expected to have another great year with him at the helm, Manning comes in as the favorite (+300) to win the passing title again this year.
(The full list of passing yards options at Carbon Sports can be found here )
Yet, at 38 years old Manning is a guy that's in the twilight years of his career and no QB in the history of the game has led the league in passing after the age of 37. Manning was only the 2nd guy to do it last year (Rich Gannon (2002) at 37 years of age and since Father Time is working against him now, there is no way I can endorse a play at +300 on Manning.
Drew Brees (+340) is the next favorite and has won this title four times in his career; including back-to-back in 2011 and 2012. Brees plays in the climate-controlled Superdome which always helps and the Saints will be a pass-heavy offense again. He's got a new weapon in rookie Brandin Cooks who should be a great playmaker in the slot for this offense and Brees has eclipsed the 5,000-yard mark each of the past three seasons. With numbers like that and an offensive system conducive to making large gains through the air, Brees will be a favorite of many wagering on this prop.
There are plenty of big names following those two as Aaron Rodgers (+600), Matthew Stafford (+800), Tom Brady (+1000) and Andrew Luck (+1800) round out the group of QB's under the +2000 threshold. All of these QB's have playoff aspirations this year and there's a good chance all of them but Stafford get there. Stafford does have the best WR in the game in Calvin Johnson and a controlled climate dome stadium like Brees. Stafford has also thrown for more than 5,000 yards in his career (2011), so it's not like it's unlikely he crosses that threshold needed to win the passing crown. Detroit will likely also find themselves trailing more than any of those other teams listed which is always a plus for QB's to wrack up yardage. Stafford also has the added bonus of playing in the pass-heavy NFC North against guys like Rodgers and Cutler where scoring 30+ points on a weekly basis is almost a necessity. At +800 you aren't getting a bad price on Stafford who should hit the 5,000 yard mark if the Lions are to compete for a playoff spot again like they did in 2011.
Looking down the rest of the list there aren't too many legitimate threats to this crown aside from these "Top-Six", but if you were looking for a longshot, Jay Cutler at +2000 is worth considering. He's in the NFC North like Stafford is and has arguably the best WR duo in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. It's Year 2 of Marc Trestman's tenure as Bears coach and given his roots as a QB guru and success in the CFL (a passing league by definition), Cutler could take off this year. The problem for Cutler is the fact he plays in Chicago and the affect winds can have in that stadium. Still at +2000, Cutler's got the talent and supporting cast around him to give this title a go in 2014.
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