NFL Totals Betting: Week 13 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/26/2014
Overall, the year-to-date record for my free picks for Doc's Sports on the "over/under" line stands at 17-18-1 after going 2-1 with last week's results. I favored the "over" in two of the three picks, and overall that play ended up with a slight 8-7 edge in all the NFL games in Week 12.
The bye weeks in the NFL are finished as the season heads into the stretch run to the playoffs. With so much on the line for so many teams, I have drilled down into the numbers for this Sunday's games to come up with three picks on the total line that look like sure-fire winners to me. All my free "over/under" picks are based on betting odds as provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, Nov. 30
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 44.5
It has been a miserable season for the Giants as even when they do play well they still fail to find a way to win games. One of the biggest problems has been the inconsistent play of quarterback Eli Manning and New York's offense as a whole. Through the team's 3-8 start, this unit is ranked 12th in the NFL passing yards and 14th in overall yards per game, but this has not translated to points on the board with an average of 21.2 points a game that is ranked 21st in the league.
Everyone knew it was going to be a rough year for Jacksonville, especially on offense. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has been under siege every week since assuming the starting role, and the result is a predictable 14.6 points a game, which is ranked last in the NFL. The one bright spot has been a defense that is ranked third in the NFL in sacks with 33, and it should be able to get after Manning all day long.
The total line for this inter-conference clash opened at 44.5, and it has held steady throughout the week on BetOnline's NFL betting odds for this game. The total has stayed under in 15 of the Giants' last 23 road games, and it has also stayed under in four of Jacksonville's last five home games. This one will have trouble clearing 40 points to easily stay under the total line.
Game Pick: UNDER
Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 51
First year head coach Jay Gruden must have seen something in Colt McCoy in his limited action at quarterback this season, since it appears that he will send Robert Griffin III to the bench for Sunday's game. At 3-8, anything is worth a shot to try and spark this team, and this week's opponent has already shown it can be scored on.
Indianapolis has a two-game lead in the AFC South at 7-4, but the concerns remain with this team after posting just two wins in its last four games. The Colts did hold Jacksonville to only three points in last Sunday's win, but against some of the better competition it has faced during this four-game stretch it allowed 51 points in a loss to Pittsburgh and 42 points in a loss to New England. Andrew Luck continues to do a good job getting the offense into the end zone on a regular basis with an average of 30.3 points a game.
The total line in this contest has held steady all week long after opening at 51. The Redskins' defense is allowing 24.8 points a game, so Indianapolis should have little problem hitting its season average on its home field. McCoy is also set up for some level of success given Indy's defense. The total has gone over in 10 of the Colts' last 13 games overall, and it is going over again this Sunday.
Game Pick: OVER
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 49.5
Denver is another high-profile team in the AFC that has had trouble living up to expectations lately. It is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind 39-36 victory at home against Miami, but the week before Peyton Manning and Co. managed just seven points in a stunning road loss to St. Louis. The Broncos know they can open up a commanding two-game lead on Kansas City while sweeping the season series, but how they will actually play on the road this time around remains to be seen.
The Chiefs blew a golden opportunity to remain tied for the lead in the AFC West, but last Thursday's stunning loss to winless Oakland dropped them one game back at 7-4. This Sunday night's game now becomes a 'must-win' scenario to keep their division title hopes alive. That kind of intensity should bring out the best of a Kansas City defense that is ranked third in the NFL in points allowed (17.7).
The total line for this AFC West tilt opened at 49.5, and it remains there on BetOnline's current board. The total line is always going to be set high when Denver takes the field, which is actually a gift this time around in light of the recent betting trends for this matchup. The total has stayed under in six of the Broncos' last nine road games against the division, and it has stayed under in eight of Kansas City's last 12 AFC West games at home games . Head-to-head, the total has stayed under in six of the last eight meetings.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 17-18-1
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