NFL Totals Betting: Week 6 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/8/2014
The oddsmakers' razor-sharp edge kept the results on the total line as even as possible last week with eight of the 15 games on the slate staying "under" the closing line. My year-to-date record on my weekly NFL "over/under" predictions took a plunge below .500 with a brutal 0-3 record in Week 5. This is my fourth straight season that I will be releasing my top three weekly picks on the NFL betting odds for the total line for Doc's Sports.
After last week's meltdown, I have dug even deeper into all of this Sunday's NFL matchups to uncover three top picks on the total line for the games based on betting odds by BetOnline.
Sunday, Oct. 12
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 45
The New England Patriots did not post 11 straight seasons of double-digit wins by accident, so it should be little surprise that they found the right stuff to start turning their season around with last week's 43-17 romp over Cincinnati as rare 2.5-point home underdogs. Both head coach Bill Belichick and veteran quarterback Tom Brady know how to respond to a challenge, so look for the Patriots to parlay this momentum into another strong showing on offense this Sunday.
The surprising Bills are off to a 3-2 start after squeezing out a 17-14 win against Detroit as 4.5-point road underdogs. The offense has struggled to put points on the board this season, but the change to Kyle Orton at quarterback should lead to much better use of weapons such as CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins moving forward. The concern in this matchup could be a Bills pass defense that is ranked 20th in the NFL in yards allowed.
The total line for this AFC East clash opened at 45, and it has remained steady ever since. Neither of these teams have been all that consistent on offense this season, but the past betting trends in this matchup along with New England's newfound ability to move the ball downfield and score points should result in a much more active day on the scoreboard. The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings, and it is going over again on Sunday.
Game Pick: OVER
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 47
This is a pivotal game for the 3-2 Steelers, whose record does not necessarily reflect their play on the field. Last week they struggled to get past Jacksonville 17-9 as the inconsistencies on offense once again reared their ugly head. Pittsburgh is ranked 18th in the NFL this season in scoring with 22.8 points per game despite being ranked fourth in average yards per game.
Cleveland is an even 2-2 on the year after last week's amazing come-from-behind victory against the Titans. The Browns set a new NFL record by overcoming a 25-point deficit on the road to win that game 29-28. Brian Hoyer has done a good job at quarterback, and the offense has been able to put up 25.8 PPG. However, running up points against the likes of New Orleans and Tennessee is one thing. I have to question whether they will be able to come anywhere close to the 27 points they scored in a late-game rally that fell just short in the first meeting against Pittsburgh this year?
The oddsmakers opened the total for this game at 47, and the betting public has been wagering on both sides of the fence so far to keep it right at that number. I realize that Cleveland's defense has been one of the most porous units in the league, but this is still a division matchup in which the total has stayed under in five of the last seven meetings. It has also stayed under in three of Pittsburgh's last four road games against the AFC North. Look for another grinder on Sunday that stays well below a generous 47-point line.
Game Pick: UNDER
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (8:30 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 50
Nobody circles the wagons like Giants' head coach Tom Coughlin and his veteran gunslinger Eli Manning. This duo has helped to erase a dismal 0-2 start with a three-game run in which New York has put up a total of 105 points. It is now ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring with an average of 26.6 points per game. Manning has thrown for eight touchdowns during this current run while completing more than 70 percent of his attempts.
The Eagles also know a thing or two about putting points on the board with a league-high 31.2 PPG. The added bonus has been the 28 points that special teams and scores on defensive turnovers have added to the cause in their last two games. Head coach Chip Kelly's main goal in any game is to score as many points as possible. That should come into play in this NFC East Division showdown considering that Philadelphia's defense is allowing an average of 26.4 PPG.
This is the third game in this week's picks where the opening total line has held steady throughout the week. It is set at 50, which is nowhere near high enough for me. The total has gone over in three of the Giants first five games in in four of the Eagles first five outings. It has also gone over in three of New York's last four road games as an underdog and in five of Philadelphia's last six games as a favorite at home
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 7-8
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