NFL Totals Betting: Week 7 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/15/2014
The wrong call on the "over" in Philadelphia's 27-0 shutout against the Giants prevented me from running the table in my top three picks on the "over/under" line in last week's NFL games, but the 2-1 record was good enough to get me back to .500 on the year at 9-9 in my weekly picks for Doc's Sports.
There are a number of solid opportunities to cash in on the total line in this Sunday's NFL matchups, so my confidence level remains high with the following three selections for Week 7 based on betting odds by BetOnline.
Sunday, Oct. 19
Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 43.5
The Seahawks have to be scratching their heads to figure out how last week's game against Dallas got away from them in what was an embarrassing loss for their vaunted defense. Seattle is still ranked ninth in the league in total yards allowed and sixth against the run, and it is safe to assume that it will return to form this week. The big concern could be an offense that has fallen to 20th in the NFL in total yards and all the way to 31 st in passing with 186 yards a game.
St. Louis followed up a 28-point performance in a six-point loss to Philadelphia with just 17 points last week in a loss to San Francisco. With Austin Davis at the helm at quarterback, the Rams' offense is actually ranked seventh in the NFL in passing with 270 yards a game and 13th in total yards per game, but when it comes to scoring this unit falls well down the list to 24th with an average of 20.2 points a game.
The total line for this NFC West matchup opened at 43, and some early money on the over has driven it up to 43.5. That is the right direction for me as I see this as a low-scoring affair that easily stays under this line. The total has stayed under in five of Seattle's last seven road games, and it has stayed under in seven of its last eight games against St. Louis.
Game Pick: UNDER
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 49
During Carolina's run to last season's NFC South title, it was a shut-down defense that led the way. So far this season in the team's 3-2-1 start, that same defense has allowed an average of 26.2 points per game, which is ranked 24th in the NFL. This unit has had its issues stopping both the run and the pass, and overall it is ranked 26th in total yards allowed. Conversely, the Panthers have done a better job at putting points on the board, including 31 points against Chicago in Week 5 and 37 in a tie with Cincinnati last Sunday.
Green Bay is up to its old tricks behind veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a three-game winning streak heading into this game after a shaky 1-2 start. During this run, the Packers have scored an average of 35.7 points, and on the year they are ranked eighth in the NFL in scoring with 26.8 points a game. Rodgers has already thrown 15 touchdown passes this season against just one interception.
The betting odds for the total in this game opened at 49, and since then they have dipped slightly to 48.5. The betting public could have a hard time grasping the fact that Carolina's strength as a team could actually be shifting to the offensive side of the ball, and I have little doubt that Green Bay will be able to put up some points this Sunday on its home field. The total has gone over in the last four meetings between these NFC foes and in four of the last five games played in Green Bay.
Game Pick: OVER
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers (4:05 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 44.5
The Chiefs are coming off a much-needed week off after a 2-3 start in their first five games. It has been hit or miss with the offense this season with just 27 total points in losses to Tennessee and Denver to start the year and a combined 75 points in lopsided victories against Miami and New England. Kansas City has also been inconsistent on defense, especially against the run where it is allowing 127.4 yards a game.
San Diego has been one of the hottest teams in the league this season with a 5-1 start behind an offense that is averaging 27.3 points a game and a passing attack led by Philip Rivers that is racking up 285.5 yards a game. The Chargers' defense is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed (15.2), but that lofty status could be a bit suspect after Oakland rolled up 28 points on this unit last Sunday.
The total line in this AFC West tilt was set at 44.5 points, and it has held steady throughout the week. Both teams have already proven that they can score points in bunches, and the betting trends in this division matchup suggest a high-scoring game. The total has gone over in five of the Chiefs last seven road games, and it has gone over in four of San Diego's last six games at home. Head-to-head, the total has gone over in four of the last five meetings.
Game Pick: OVER
YTD Record: 9-9
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