NFL Totals Betting: Week 9 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 10/29/2014
The results on the "over/under" betting odds last week in the NFL were fairly even, with eight of 15 games staying under the closing lines, but I slipped a bit further down the rabbit hole on the year with the wrong play in two of my three picks. This leaves me searching for winners with an overall record of 11-13 on the year in my weekly total line picks for Doc's Sports.
I have dug deep into Week's 9 slate of NFL games in an effort to right the ship with a trio of winners for this Sunday's matchups. All the picks are based on betting odds as provided by BetOnline.
Sunday, Nov. 2
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (1 p.m. FOX)
Total Line: 48
The Cardinals are coming off a tight four-point victory over Philadelphia in which they held the league's fourth-highest scoring team to just 20 points. Overall, Arizona is now ranked fifth in the NFL in points allowed (19.9), and its biggest attribute heading into this Sunday's matchup could be a run defense that is giving up just 77.9 yards a game.
Most of the other books still have this game "off the board" pending the health of Tony Romo's back, but even if he can go on Sunday look for the Cowboys to once again lead with a heavy dose of running back DeMarco Murray as the main thrust of its offensive attack. This type of ball-control approach has really helped its defense keep opposing teams out of the end zone this season. Heading into this game, Dallas is ranked ninth in the league in points allowed (20.9)
When the betting odds for this matchup were first released, the total was set at 48, and that number has held steady on BetOnline's board. Given the current form of both of these team's defenses, that line appears to be a gift for a play on the under. The total has stayed under in five of Arizona's last seven games, and it has stayed under in four of the Cowboys' last six home games.
Game Pick: UNDER
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots (4:25 p.m. CBS)
Total Line: 55
Denver comes into this rematch of last season's AFC title game on fire after winning its last its last four games by a combined score of 149-75. Overall, the 6-1 Broncos are ranked first in the league in scoring with an average of 32 points a game, and they have only scored fewer than 27 points just twice in their first seven games.
Not to be outdone, the Patriots come into this huge AFC showdown with their own four-game run in which they have outscored their opponents by a combined 71 points while racking up an average of 39.5 points a game. New England put an exclamation point on this current winning streak by blasting Chicago 51-23 last Sunday in a game where Tom Brady and Co. almost took the total over on its own.
It is no big surprise that the total in this matchup opened at 55, and as the week as worn on it has remained the same on BetOnline's board. You almost always face a high number in a Denver game, yet the total has still gone over in five of seven games this season. It is pretty much the same case with the Patriots, and yet the total has gone over in six of their first eight games on the year.This is the kind of dream matchup where you just sit back and watch the points add up.
Game Pick: OVER
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 p.m. NBC)
Total Line: 47.5
The Ravens drew first blood in this bitter AFC North rivalry this season with a 26-6 victory in Week 2 that stayed well under the 44.5-point closing line. Since that win, Baltimore's defense has held its opponents to 21 points or less in five of its next six games. Overall, this unit is ranked second in the NFL in points allowed (16.4) and seventh against the run.
You are never quite sure what you are going to get from the Steelers on a week-to-week basis, but they do have a tendency to play to their opponents' weaknesses and falter against their strengths. Last week against a very porous Indianapolis defense, Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards and six touchdowns. Earlier in the season this offense managed to score just 10 points in a loss to Cleveland.
The total line in this division clash opened at 47.5, and it has held steady as the week has progressed. We are not at the point in the season where weather can be a big factor, but the winds at Heinz Field can always have an impact on throwing the ball. Looking back at the past scoring trends in this matchup, these teams have combined for 44 points or less in 12 of the last 14 meetings.
Game Pick: UNDER
YTD Record: 11-13
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Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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