The basic strategy teaser options for Week 16 of the NFL season are quite simple, because there are only two games on the board. Carolina takes its undefeated record into Atlanta to face a division rival, while Detroit will host San Francisco in a matchup with draft implications on the line and nothing more. Basic strategy teasers are two-team, six-point wagers that use favorites of 7.5 to 8.5 points and underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 points. The bet uses the power of three and seven, the most common margin of victory in the NFL, to anchor those specific spread by a touchdown or field goal.
Let's take a closer look at the two basic strategy teaser games heading into Week 16 and figure out if there is any value betting a teaser this weekend.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Panthers -7.5
Six-point teaser: Panthers -1.5
Carolina is coming off a 38-point blowout over the Falcons during Week 14, but the team nearly lost its first game last Sunday against the New York Giants. Most people keep expecting the Panthers to drop a game, but with two matchups against sub-.500 teams left on the schedule, completing the perfect season is within reach. One key to Carolina's excellent season has been the team's light schedule over the course of the year, and that is not to take anything away because they are winning.
Atlanta is sitting on a 7-7 record and has shown a few signs of life over the season. That of course isn't enough to predict a win here, but the Falcons can move the ball and are ranked ninth in total yards and seventh in pass yards gained. Division matchups are typically close games, so taking the 7.5 points could be a great option, but do not expect Atlanta to cover the 1.5. Prognosis: Carolina continues to hear whispers about being overrated, so they will certainly chase a perfect 16-0 mark. Expect a win from the Panthers here.
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers
Spread: Lions -7.5
Six-point teaser: Lions -1.5
This is just a meaningless game between two sub-par teams that will each probably crack the double-digit loss mark this season. The rest of the NFL world might ignore this matchup, yet for bettors there is valuing throwing the Lions into a basic strategy teaser. San Francisco is currently sitting on a 6-8 ATS mark as an underdog and it loses those games by an average of 9.8 points. Line wise, the 49ers receive seven points per game as an underdog and still struggle to cover those matchups. The Lions, on the other hand, are not much better, as they are ranked 20th in both total yards gained and points scored, while also ranking 31st in rushing yards.
Detroit is at home, still has talent all around the field and has every reason to cover this game-maybe not the original spread, but certainly the new, lower number. Basic strategy teasers have been on fire over the last few weeks with a 16-3 mark, so even though the Lions can be shaky, it doesn't hurt to ride a hot trend. Prognosis: Detroit is never a great option to wager on, but they are playing San Francisco. Tease the number down and give up the 1.5 points.
Read more articles by George Monroy
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