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NFL Football Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by - 10/12/2015

Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles

And with the first pick in the 2016 NFL draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select ... sure, the Detroit Lions are the only team in the NFL without a win yet, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs will win another game this season after they fell at home to a pretty bad Chicago Bears team on Sunday and lost superstar running back Jamaal Charles to a season-ending torn ACL. That's beyond crushing as Charles was easily the most important player on that offense. The Chiefs led the Bears 17-3 with Charles in their lineup, but they imploded once he went down, losing 18-17 after the Bears scored two touchdowns in the final 3 minutes, 5 seconds.

Charles also missed all but two games of the 2011 season with a torn ACL in his left knee. Since 2012, Charles has accounted for 30.9 percent of his team's yards from scrimmage, second in the league to Chicago's Matt Forte. Also in that stretch, Charles leads the NFL with 38 touchdowns. Charles has 100 yards from scrimmage in 32 games since the start of the 2012 season, tied with Forte for the most in the NFL during that span.

Now Kansas City turns to undrafted free agent Charcandrick West as its primary back as he has passed Knile Davis on the depth chart. I do this for a living, and I had never heard of West until this season. He joined the Chiefs last year as an undrafted rookie from Abilene Christian and spent most of the season on the practice squad.

Here are some Week 6 games and opening lines that caught my eye. As usual, I will not touch on the Thursday game, my featured Sunday game (most likely Patriots-Colts) or the Monday night game.

Bears at Lions (-2.5, 43): I was dead wrong on Detroit in Week 5 as I thought the Lions might actually show some heart off their crushing Monday night loss in Seattle. Instead, they totally mailed it in Sunday in a 42-17 home loss to Arizona. The big news from that game was Coach Jim Caldwell yanking an ineffective Matthew Stafford with the Lions down 42-0 and putting in career backup Dan Orlovsky. Stafford was 20-for-32 for 188 yards with a TD and three picks -- he leads the NFL with eight interceptions. Still, benching your franchise quarterback is never a good thing for job security. Caldwell has already made it clear, however, that there is no quarterback controversy and that Stafford will be starting against Chicago. The Bears are hopeful they will have receivers Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal for this one after both missed the Chiefs game. Key trend: Detroit is 4-5-1 ATS in past 10 as home favorite in series. The pick: Lions.

Bengals at Bills (+1, 44.5): This seems like a potentially huge letdown game for unbeaten Cincinnati. The Bengals rallied to beat Seattle 27-24 in overtime on Sunday -- scoring 17 fourth-quarter points to send the game to an extra quarter. Andy Dalton had another really strong game, throwing for 344 yards and two scores. It matched the second-biggest comeback in team history. The Bengals are one win shy of matching the best start in club history. You can pretty much write down Cincinnati as a playoff lock as the last teams to start 5-0 and not make the playoffs were the Broncos and Giants in 2009. Since 1990, 39 of 43 teams to start 5-0 made it. Buffalo won 14-13 at Tennessee on Sunday despite playing without Sammy Watkins and its top two running backs. The Bills rallied from a 10-point deficit. Key trend: Buffalo 8-2 ATS in past 10 as home dog of 2.5 points or fewer. The pick: Bills if LeSean McCoy and Watkins play.

Redskins at Jets (-5, 40.5): New York comes off its bye and welcomes back Pro Bowl defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson off suspension, which only makes one of the NFL's best defenses that much better. Richardson practiced Monday for the first time since his four-game drug suspension ended. If form holds, the Redskins will pull the upset here as they have alternated losses and wins through their first five games. Washington was beaten 25-19 in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday. The Redskins were denied their first back-to-back wins in almost a year -- since Weeks 7 and 8 in 2014. Key trend: New York is 4-6 ATS in past 10 as home favorite of at least 5 points. The pick: Jets.

Texans at Jaguars (+1, 43): Houston coach Bill O'Brien has chosen to bench Ryan Mallett and go back to Week 1 starter Brian Hoyer in this one -- not that it likely makes much difference in how good Houston will be overall. Hoyer relieved a struggling Mallett during Thursday night's 27-20 loss to the Colts, completing 24 of 31 passes for 312 yards with two touchdowns and a late interception that killed the Texans. Will the Jaguars have Blake Bortles available? He suffered a sprained shoulder early in Sunday's loss to Tampa. He probably won't practice this week until at least Thursday but the team doesn't think it's too serious. Bortles had maybe his best NFL game vs. the Bucs, throwing for 303 yards and four touchdowns. Key trend: Houston 5-5 ATS in past 10 as road favorite. The pick: Texans.

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