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NFL Odds and Betting Week 7: Line Movements & Last-Minute News

by - 10/23/2015

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan

Hopefully you followed my Thursday night betting advice again this week as it was a sweep on the spread and the total as the Seattle won in San Francisco 20-3, easily covering the 6.5-point spread and going way under the total of 42. Colin Kaepernick just can't handle that Seahawks defense. He was 13-for-24 for 124 yards and dropped to 1-6 in seven starts against the Seahawks with three touchdown passes to nine interceptions and 24 sacks, six more Thursday.

That game had zero drama and was highly uninteresting. Let's hope we see better matchups on Sunday and Monday night despite a pretty lousy schedule (in college football too; what is it with this week?). I can't remember three unbeaten teams all being on a bye week as Cincinnati, Denver and Green Bay, all 6-0, are this week. Carolina and New England, both 5-0, look to join that 6-0 club, and both are favorites, with the Patriots hosting the Jets on Sunday and the Panthers hosting the Eagles on Monday (I previewed that game here at Doc's). The NFL record for the most 6-0 teams in a single season is four, which was set in 2009. Tom Brady needs 43 passing yards Sunday to become the fifth quarterback in NFL history to reach 55,000 career passing yards. He will join Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino and Drew Brees on that list.

Brady remains the +100 favorite at BetOnline to win a third NFL MVP Award. Bovada also has a Week 7 special asking if one of the unbeaten teams will win the Super Bowl, with "yes" at -200 and "no" at +150. I'd certainly lean yes. Don't give Denver or Carolina much of a chance, but the other three certainly. The only outliers would be Pittsburgh with a healthy Big Ben and Seattle.

Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 7.

Bills vs. Jaguars (+4.5, 41): I touched on this Monday in my Opening Line Report, and the spread has risen a half-point since then while the total has dropped. Back then, I leaned the Bills for this game in London (9:30 a.m. ET and live streamed on Yahoo). Now I'm off the Bills. Why? Here's who is out for Buffalo: quarterback Tyrod Taylor, receivers Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin (conflicting reports on whether Harvin is pondering retirement), running back Karlos Williams, offensive tackle Seantrel Henderson and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Wow. However, a sleep specialist gives the Bills an advantage here. That's because they arrived in London on Monday morning, while embattled coach Gus Bradley elected to have the Jaguars fly overnight Thursday and they arrived Friday morning. So obviously Buffalo players will be more adjusted to the five-hour time difference from the U.S. East Coast. That said, the Jags play in London every year and are used to this. A first for Bills.

Falcons at Titans (+5, 46.5): This opened at +3.5 and 47.5. Atlanta is taking by far the biggest lean of any team this week, and I'm sure it's mostly because no one expects Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to play. He suffered a sprained MCL in last week's loss to Miami and hasn't practiced this week. The Titans haven't ruled him out yet, and Mariota says he thinks he can play. Hogwash. That's a multiple-week injury, one that Ben Roethlisberger is still dealing with. The Titans aren't throwing their franchise player out there on a gimpy knee and risk major damage. Zach Mettenberger will get the start. Falcons also have the advantage of a few extra days of preparation as they played on Thursday in Week 6.

Cowboys at Giants (-3.5, 45): This line has dropped from 5, and I'm surprised because the Giants should win this game easily. There was some scuttlebutt that Dez Bryant might return this week for Dallas, but that's not happening. And of course Tony Romo remains out. Matt Cassel gets the start at quarterback for Dallas as he was promoted to the top spot over Brandon Weeden during the Cowboys' bye week -- that they come off the bye and the Giants on a short week are about the only advantages Dallas has in this one. Bovada offers Week 7 props on Cassel: "over/under" 220.5 passing yards and 1.5 TD throws. New York receiver Odell Beckham Jr. continues to battle a hamstring injury and miss practice, but he'll play. Beckham complained this week about his lack of targets in the second halves of games this season and he's right. Beckham has been targeted 41 times in the first half of games, but just 19 in the second. Expect that to change Sunday. The Giants again will be without No. 2 receiver Victor Cruz, whose calf injury still hasn't healed.

Saints at Colts (-4, 52): Indy opened at -6. This is easily the highest total on the board and the only one over 50. The Colts might be down two safeties in the injured Mike Adams and Clayton Geathers. So that could mean a big day for Drew Brees. He has thrown two or fewer touchdown passes in seven straight games. He has not gone eight straight games without three touchdown passes since 2006-07. Of course, Brees played collegiately at Purdue and Sunday will be the first time Brees has played back in Indiana since the 2007 NFL regular-season opener. It's his first game in Lucas Oil Stadium. I'd probably still go over this high total as the Colts and Saints are in the bottom four of the NFL's total defensive rankings. It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLIV, won by the Saints, but really only Brees remains from that game among key players on both sides.

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