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NFL Week 1 Upsets: Which Underdogs Have the Best Betting Value?

by - 9/2/2015

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco

Picking an upset might be the best feeling in all of sports. When we put in the work as bettors and find a spot where we can get in with value, it almost validates all the hard work and handicapping you put in. Week 1 of the upcoming NFL season has a few spots where the underdog has a solid chance to cover and win the game outright. Let's take a closer look at the matchups and figure out where the best value lies for picking an underdog during the opening week of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 at New England

Moneyline : +140

A ruling in the "Deflategate" case against Tom Brady is supposed to be coming soon, but the chances are that "the Golden Boy" will at minimum miss the first game of the season. The line has seen drastic movement since Brady's suspension was announced months ago-it opened at six at many sportsbooks, moved down to two and then settled at 3.5. Pittsburgh ended 2014 on an 8-2 run after starting the season 3-3 and produced the second-best offensive in the entire NFL with 411.1 yards per game. The Steelers are expected to struggle on defense in 2015. However, will that matter against a second-string quarterback? Pittsburgh should be an excellent offensive team this season and could cover this game and even win it outright.

Baltimore Ravens +5 at Denver Broncos

Moneyline : +180

John Elway and the Denver Broncos essentially cleaned house over the offseason after another Peyton Manning one-and-done playoff appearance. Elway brought in new head coach Gary Kubiak, new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips and let a few key players from last year's team walk during free agency. And on top of all that, Manning will be recovering from a torn quad suffered late last season. Denver struggled as a favorite in 2014, ending the year with a 7-8 mark, while the Ravens excelled in the position of underdog, producing a 4-2 mark. The simple analysis is that Manning is near the end of his career and the team will probably struggle ATS-wise with a new offensive system. Take the Ravens to cover and probably win the game.

New York Giants (+5) at Dallas Cowboys

Moneyline : +180

Dallas will enter 2015 with huge expectations after last season's overachieving run. The Cowboys, however, did struggle at home last year and only managed to produce a 3-6 ATS mark over nine games, including the playoffs. A huge part of the team's success in 2014 was due to its running game, and the loss of DeMarco Murray could complicate things. New York is not expected to be a powerhouse by any means, but the team did split games ATS-wise against the Cowboys last season. The matchup doesn't feel as solid of an underdog bet as the previous two games, and New York could get blown out, but would it really be surprising if Dallas struggled in this game?

San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) vs Minnesota Vikings

Moneyline : +120

San Francisco has been a dysfunctional mess for the better part of two years. Jim Harbaugh is gone, the once-dominant defense is gone, and Colin Kaepernick may not be the franchise quarterback the 49ers thought they had. But with that being said, should San Francisco really be an underdog against a decent to good Minnesota team? The 49ers may have lost many key pieces on the defensive end, but they still have the foundation for building another quality team. Minnesota, on the other hand, excelled as an underdog last season and has loads of potential with Teddy Bridgewater behind center and Adrian Peterson returning to the team. But are they ready to be a favorite against experienced teams? Again, this underdog situation doesn't feel like a must-bet, but would it be shocking to see San Francisco win this matchup.

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