I think the 2015 season is going to be it for quarterback Robert Griffin III in D.C. That's because I expect him to continue his regression, for Coach Jay Gruden to bench him at some point and for RGIII to miss at least a few games due to injury because that's just what he does. Griffin enters camp as the starter but has to prove he is worthy of the $16.2 million option the team picked up for 2016. Look for RGIII to play at least a quarter in Thursday's preseason opener against Cleveland, by the way. The Redskins can cut Griffin without financial penalty after the season. Expect Washington to be one of those teams picking a quarterback high in the 2016 draft.
There look to be as many as five new starters on defense, which needed an overhaul after ranking 29th in scoring defense last season. Joe Barry is the new coordinator on that side of the ball. The team did get some unexpected help in signing former Saints linebacker Junior Galette after he was released by the Saints back in July even though Galette will cost New Orleans $17 million in cap space the next two seasons. Galette remains under investigation by the NFL for off-the-field issues, which could lead to a suspension. But the guy can get to the QB with 22 sacks combined the past two seasons.
The Redskins were 1-7 on the road last season, 3-5 against the spread and 4-4 "over/under." Their 2015 road schedule ranks as the 14th-easiest in the NFL with an opponents' combined 2014 winning percentage of .488. That's tied with Philly for the toughest in the NFC East.
Here's the schedule with very early (opponent) odds. There are three road games against 2014 playoff teams.
Sept. 24 -- at Giants (-2): Thursday night game and Washington's first NFC East matchup of the year. Redskins are off a Week 2 home game vs. St. Louis. New York is home to Atlanta the previous Sunday. Washington lost 24-13 at the Giants in Week 15 last season. RGIII rather blew that one. Late in the first half, Griffin scrambled for an apparent 8-yard touchdown for a 17-7 lead, diving over the pylon, then running on to the field and spiking the ball with emphasis. But a video review showed Griffin lost control of the ball while diving over the pylon, so it was a touchback. The Giants controlled things in the second half. Griffin was 18-for-27 for 236 yards and a TD. Redskins lose this. Key trend: Redskins 3-6-1 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.
Oct. 11 -- at Falcons (-3.5): Washington off a Week 4 home game vs. Philadelphia, while Atlanta is home to Houston the previous Sunday. Redskins have lost four straight in the series, last 27-26 in December 2013 as a 2-point conversion failed at the end. Redskins lose this. Key trend: Redskins 6-3-1 ATS in past 10 at NFC South teams.
Oct. 18 -- at Jets (-2): New York is off its bye week. New Jets head coach Todd Bowles played as a safety from the Redskins from 1986-90 and '92-93. Redskins have lost just twice in 10 all-time meetings against the Jets. I'll take Washington for its lone road win of the year here. Key trend: Redskins 5-5 ATS in past 10 at AFC East teams.
Nov. 8 -- at Patriots (-8.5): Washington is off its bye week, while New England is off a Thursday night Week 8 home game vs. Miami. First-ever meeting between Griffin III and Tom Brady. Patriots have won past two meetings, last in 2011. They win this one too. Key trend: Redskins 4-6 ATS in past 10 after a bye (any location).
Nov. 22 -- at Panthers (-5): Washington off a Week 10 home game vs. New Orleans, while Carolina is in Tennessee the previous Sunday. Say what you will about Cam Newton, but he at least stays on the field. RGIII tries to play like Newton from a running perspective but is just too slight to take that punishment. Redskins have lost three straight in series, last in 2012. They lose here. Key trend: Redskins 1-9 SU (4-6 ATS) in past 10 as a road dog of at least 5 points.
Dec. 13 -- at Bears (-4): Washington is on a short week, hosting Dallas on Monday night in Week 13. Chicago is home to San Francisco the previous Sunday. The Redskins tried to hire former 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to take the DC job with them, but Fangio decided to take the gig in Chicago instead. Washington has won five straight in series, last in 2013. That streak ends. Key trend: Redskins 0-4 ATS (and SU) in past four at NFC North teams.
Dec. 26 -- at Eagles (-7): Washington off its home finale in Week 15 against Buffalo, while Philly is home to Arizona the previous Sunday. Redskins lost 37-34 in Philadelphia in Week 3 last season. Kirk Cousins started that one with Griffin out injured, and Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns. Washington led 17-7 at one point and outgained the Eagles 511-379. Redskins lose this. Key trend: Redskins 6-4 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.
Jan. 3 -- at Cowboys (TBA): No Week 17 line because of too many potential intangibles. Dallas is off a trip to Buffalo in Week 16. I'm going to assume this is also the final game for Gruden as Washington's coach. The Redskins got a very unlikely 20-17 overtime win in Dallas on Monday night in Week 8 last year. Colt McCoy started that one and was 25-for-30 for 299 yards and a rushing TD. DeSean Jackson caught six passes for 136 yards. That was Washington's second straight win of 2014 -- it wouldn't win consecutive games again. Skins lose this. Key trend: Redskins 8-2 ATS in past 10 as road dog in series.
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