Past the halfway point in the season and the NFL totals picks in this space continue to turn a profit. Last Sunday resulted in another 3-0 week when Broncos-Raiders finished 30-20 to eclipse the "over/under" of 44.5 as the 5-unit best bet. It was the second perfect week in the previous three, resulting in another 11 units in profits.
In the last month alone, the NFL total picks in this space are up 16 units. Let's try and keep it going in Week 10.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (42.5)
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The Texans are the third-lowest scoring team in the NFL and sport a minus-30 point differential for the season. Somehow, this team is still 5-3 and two games up on the Colts in the putrid AFC South. This smoke-and-mirrors job of the Texans hasn't worked on the road this season, however. They've been outscored 84-12 in their previous three away games, with two of those falling comfortably under the posted total. QB Brock Osweiler has yet to show he can move this offense with any consistency in hostile territory
As for the Jags, they are the fifth-lowest scoring in the NFL with just 19.1 PPG. After making a big splash this offseason, Jacksonville has completely failed to live up to the hype. Blake Bortles (14 TD, 10 INT) is the definition of mediocrity at quarterback, and this week he could be without two of his top three receivers, Allen Hurns (31 rec, 443 YDS, 2 TD) and Allen Robinson (39 rec, 442 YDS, 4 TD), both of whom are in concussion protocol. Keep a close eye on their status as gametime approaches.
But whether or not they go, it seems the Jaguars have already mailed it in this season under presumed lame-duck coach Gus Bradley. Look for this game to be ugly and low-scoring.
Pick: Under, 3 Units
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (50.5)
The "over" is 8-1 in the Falcons nine games this season, while the Eagles have gone over the total in five of their eight matchups. It's easy to see why that is for the Falcons as they lead the league in scoring (33.9 PPG) and are 28th in scoring defense (28.8 PPG).
As for the Eagles, they have lost four of five since a 3-0 start, and things seem to be getting worse by the day. First-year head coach Doug Pederson has been guilty of some dubious calls the past few weeks, while rookie QB Carson Wentz has come back to earth after his torrid start to the season. During the Eagles five-game skid, Wentz has thrown just four TDs and five interceptions.
Still, this could be the week the Eagles offense gets back on track. At home, against one of the league's most porous defenses, with a forecast of sunny skies and high's in the upper 50s. This seems an ideal setup for Wentz and the Eagles.
Pick: Over, 3 Units
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (48.5)
This line opened at 49 and has been bet down a full point at some shops, but this number was also still widely available as of Tuesday afternoon.
Both teams come into this reeling. That is not a surprise for the 49ers, but it certainly is for the Cardinals. The No. 1 reason for Arizona's struggles has been its lack of offensive production. The Cardinals rank 19th in scoring with just 22.4 PPG. QB Carson Palmer has been nowhere near the player of a season, ago and it also appears age may finally be starting to slow the great Larry Fitzgerald.
Whispers around the league are teams have figured out Bruce Arians offense. It is predicated on a downfield passing game, but with aging weapons that may no longer be the soundest of strategies. We're leery of the Cardinals minus any changes in the offensive philosophy, i.e. more runs and intermediate passes.
Pick: Under, 5 Units
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