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NFL Rookie of the Year Odds: Race for Best Offensive Newcomer


by - 5/2/2018

Saquon Barkley Penn State

The NFL Draft is in the books, teams mostly look like they are going to look, and we as handicappers can now turn our attention towards the season and what may happen. And one of the more interesting things to consider right now is which of those draft picks are going to pay immediate dividends for their teams. The last two years Dak Prescott and Alvin Kamara have won the award, and few would have seen them coming when the seasons started.

Will it be another long shot who grabs the award this year, or will it be a favorite again - like it was in 2015 when Todd Gurley grabbed the award? Here's how the race breaks down ( odds are from Bovada ):

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants, +150: I respect Barkley, and at his best he is a freak - certainly capable of winning this award. And he plays the right position - running backs have won three of the last five and 20 of the last 36 awards. But I am far from sold at this price. He had a three-game stretch last year where he was not particularly effective - Ohio State, Michigan State and Rutgers. He was banged up, but the teams also had answers for him. And in the NFL he is going to face a much tougher physical challenge than in college; and a longer schedule as well. He seems to be cast as a savior in New York, but the team had more issues than just not having a top running back last year. I don't really believe in miracles, so I am skeptical. He's probably the most likely winner, but there is no value here at all.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland, +275: I am firmly in the camp that believes that the Browns made the right choice taking Mayfield with the top pick. They weren't getting him if they didn't take him first - New England was reportedly one of multiple teams looking to move up to second to take him. Mayfield might not be the right size for an NFL QB, and he might have some off-field issues, but he is a flat-out winner, and he is freakishly accurate. But I just don't see him winning this award because I don't see him getting the chance to start enough games. Tyrod Taylor is legitimate, and he won't go to the bench without a fight. And while the team should be better than last year, they aren't going to be in the heart of the playoff race or anything, so there is no incentive to rush Mayfield in before he is ready. I'm bullish over the long term, but I'm not interested here at this price.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo, +800: Allen is a project. He has a crazy arm, but he's taking a massive step up in class, and his accuracy just isn't ready for primetime yet. A.J. McCarron isn't a perfect QB by any means, but he gives the Bills a better chance to win right now than Allen does. I don't expect Allen to see any meaningful time this year unless the season is lost early, so he doesn't justify this price.

Josh Rosen, QB, Arizona, +1000: Rosen is competing with Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon for playing time here, and this is going to be a lousy team with a highly-questionable offensive line. It will be tough for Rosen to distinguish himself, and there is little incentive to give him a lot of playing time early. Even if he gets to play a lot, it will be tough to put up nice numbers on a team like this.

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle, +1400: I was legitimately surprised when the Seahawks picked Penny. It seemed like an odd choice given their needs and the players still available when they grabbed him in the first round. But they were decisive in the pick, and they clearly liked him. And sometimes an abundance of faith in a clearly skilled guy is the sign you need to believe in. Penny has put up great numbers in college, and the Seahawks have had good success with running backs under Pete Carroll. I like the value here a lot.

Derrius Guice, RB, Washington, +1800: Guice was a first-rounder in the eyes of many experts and certainly in his own mind. So, when he was taken 59th overall he was clearly unhappy. If he can channel that into a positive motivator and play with a chip on his shoulder then it could really be a positive for him. The Redskins are a solid team, and I am an Alex Smith believer, so I am reasonably bullish. There is value here, too.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore, +2000: I like Jackson a lot and have faith in him as a contributor over the long term. But Joe Flacco is still in town, and still being paid a whole lot, so they aren't going to give Jackson early playing time. If he performs well in the opportunities he gets then the team could make a QB change in a year or two, but that won't win him a rookie of the year award this year.

Sony Michel, RB, New England, +3000: As you've noticed, I have been high on rookie running backs at longer odds here, and I'll continue on that trend. Michel had a great year for Georgia last year, averaging 7.9 yards per carry. He's got decent hands, too, so he can play a bigger role in the passing game for the Patriots than he did in Georgia. New England has been very good over the years at maximizing the good offensive tools they have, and Michel is a higher-caliber weapon than they have had at the position for a long time. There is value here, too.

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