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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 17 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/27/2022

NFL betting predictions Week 17 opening line report Trevor Lawrence Jaksonville Jaguars

An eventful Week 16 is now behind us, and it’s time to look ahead to Week 17. There are just 2 games to go for the Super Bowl hopefuls to gain steam heading into the playoffs, and there is still plenty to play for. We had our first 0-3 week last week, as the Bears and Seahawks both failed to cover as long underdogs, while the Lions let their playoff hopes fall out of their grasp in a blowout loss to the Panthers. This brings our season record to 15-15-1, with just 2 weeks to go. Before jumping into Week 17, let’s take a look at the biggest storylines from Week 16.


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  • Jaguars control their fate: Trevor Lawrence led the Jaguars to their third straight victory, and they are now first place in the AFC South at 7-8. On Thursday, they were able to beat down on the Jets, setting up a critical Week 18 matchup with the Titans.
  • Bengals stay hot: The Cincinnati Bengals last lost on October 31 and were able to stretch their win streak to 7 games against the Patriots in Week 16. The Bengals took a 22-0 lead into halftime, before eventually holding on to the 22-18 victory. They showed grit and remain in the hunt for the valuable number 1 seed in the AFC.
  • Vikings get the win: The Vikings improved their record in 1 score games to 11-0, beating the Giants 27-24 on a walk-off 61-yard field goal from Greg Joseph. The Giants need just 1 win in their final 2 games to clinch a playoff spot, while the Vikings remain in striking distance for the number 1 NFC seed. 
  • Slugfest in Carolina: The Panthers and Lions went back and forth before the Panthers emerged victorious, winning 37-23. They ran for 320 yards on the ground, a new season high, and held a comfortable lead for a majority of the game. At 6-9, the Panthers are just 1 game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South crown. 
  • Titans continue to freefall: Through the first 11 weeks, the Titans looked to be a lock for the AFC South crown, holding a 7-3 record and a full 4 games ahead of the second place Jaguars. A crushing loss to the Texans set a new low for the Titans, losers of 5 straight, and there looks to be no end in sight for the team. If they can right the ship and win out, they will secure a postseason berth… but that’s a big ‘if’.
  • NFC East still up for grabs: The Cowboys beat the Eagles 40-34 in a back-and-forth shootout to keep their divisional hopes alive. Dak Prescott threw for 347 yards and 3 TDs, handing the Eagles just their second loss of the year. 
  • Meaningful football in Green Bay? All of a sudden, the Packers are in the thick of the NFC playoff race. They have won 3 straight and got help as the Commanders, Giants, Lions, and Seahawks all lost in Week 16. Maybe Aaron Rodgers has a little bit of magic left in him after all.
  • Brady gets it done: Despite being rather unimpressive for 3 and a half quarters, the Buccaneers got a crucial victory against the reeling Cardinals. A 19-16 overtime win against a 4-11 team won’t exactly fill the team with confidence. However, if Brady can make the playoffs, there is no telling how far he may go. 

There are just 2 weeks to go, and Week 17 is often the most exciting week in football. Several teams are still alive, fantasy football finals are upon us, and dreams will be shattered in the coming days. The opening lines have hit the books, and locking in value early in the week can be critical to staying profitable long term. Let’s get into it.

Game 1: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Opening Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

For the first game of the week, I’ll be taking a look at a critical AFC South showdown. The Jaguars have won 3 straight games and now control their own destiny. If they win their final 2 contests, they will win the AFC South and head to the postseason for the second time since 2007. After starting the year 2-6, it appeared unlikely there would be meaningful football in Jacksonville at this stage of the season. However, Trevor Lawrence has been playing smart, not turning the ball over, and generating enough offense to get victories. A visit to Houston should allow him to take advantage of the 26th ranked defense, but it won’t be as easy as it seems. Despite their 2-12-1 record, the Texans have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league and rank in the top half in a majority of the passing categories. However, on the ground, the Texans are far and away the worst defense, but I don’t expect a mediocre Jacksonville run game to be able to take advantage. I’m not saying that the Texans will win this game outright, but they are the home team and are catching over a field goal. They were able to beat Tennessee, a fellow AFC South rival in Week 16, and I expect another solid performance from them here. Grab the +4 on the home team, and don’t look back.

Pick: Houston Texans (+4)

Game 2: New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: New York Jets (-2.5)

Two teams desperate for a win take each other on in Week 17, with the loser being virtually eliminated from playoff contention. For Seattle, they have lost 3 straight games, and 5 of their last 6, yet remain in the thick of the playoff race. Going on a losing streak at this critical point of the season is far from ideal, but losses to powerhouses such as the 49ers and Chiefs are easier to swallow than a looming Jets loss. Geno Smith will have a chance to get back to winning ways, and a visit from the Jets may allow him to do so. For the Jets, they received massive injury news that Mike White is back and will be available to start in Seattle. Zach Wilson has been dreadful for the Jets, constantly turning the ball over and shooting a solid defensive unit in the foot. White brings a sense of stability we haven’t seen for New York in recent weeks, but I don’t think it will be enough. When I saw this matchup, I expected Seattle to be slight home favorites. I am shocked to find them as home dogs at this stage of the season and will be jumping on the free points. Seattle knows a loss will effectively eliminate them from the postseason, and they will be desperate to snap out of their funk. They have come up against the league’s juggernauts recently, and a visit from the inconsistent Jets is exactly what the doctor ordered. Take the +2.5, and sprinkle on the +120 moneyline too. I expect this line to be close to a pick ‘em before kickoff.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Game 3: LA Rams at LA Chargers

Opening Line: LA Chargers (-6.5)

The Chargers have won three straight games, and Justin Herbert continues to perform at the highest level. He is 3rd in the league in passing yards with 4,254 yards and will be able to carve apart a weak Rams defense. The Chargers beat the Colts in dominant fashion, 20-3, on Monday, clinching a berth in the postseason. They still have plenty to play for and will want to keep up the momentum heading into January, and a visit from the Rams is exactly what they want. The Rams are in the bottom third in passing defense and will not be able to contain Herbert. I know they looked good in their 51-14 beatdown of the Broncos, but right now any NFL team will look good against that squad. They benefited from 4 interceptions and won’t get the same Christmas presents from a responsible Herbert. The line is only -6.5, which is shocking. If the Rams beat the Broncos by a respectable scoreline, this line would easily be double digits as the Chargers are better than the Rams in so many categories. This has created a perfect ‘sell high’ opportunity on the Rams, and I will happily lay up to 9 points on the Chargers at home.

Pick: LA Chargers -6.5

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