NFL Betting Predictions: Week 4 Opening Line Report and Picks
Week 3 saw an even split between underdogs and favorite, going 8-8 straight up, although underdogs were 9-5-1 against the spread to continue a season that has been dominated by underdogs covering at a 26-18-2 record. The Over/Under went an even 8-8 throughout the weekend.
Miami is making noise in the AFC. Not only are they one of two undefeated teams remaining, but they are also 3-0 against the spread and scored a massive victory against divisional rival Buffalo. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to struggle offensively but have had tremendous defensive efforts in every game this season, and they face another matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. It is only a matter of time until Tom Brady gets the offense firing on all cylinders.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are on top of the AFC South, and that is not a typo. Trevor Lawrence has looked phenomenal under new head coach Doug Pederson. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in the league, and they have looked like the best team by far in their division; a changing of the guard may be taking place.
If I were to tell you the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all in the bottom 10 of the league from an offensive production after three weeks, you may have thought I was crazy. However, major concerns linger amongst these four teams, especially the Colts and Broncos, who brought in veteran quarterbacks to drastically effect their offenses in positive ways. Confidence when betting for or against these teams has been very difficult because of their lack of offensive production.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
My favorite picks of the week include:
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 @ Detroit Lions -4.5
O/U: +- 50
2022 ATS Record: Seahawks 1-2, Lions 3-0
I am riding the hot hand in this one. The Lions have produced the second most points per game over the first three games at 31.7 and are going against a defense that ranks 26th in yards against per game, 20th in points against per game and are 20th for turnover ratio per game. Both teams are not strong defensively, but I do not believe Geno Smith will be able to keep pace with the explosive offense of the Detroit Lions. The Detroit Lions, despite their offense prowess, are still only 1-2. And if the word “playoffs” want to remain a top of conversation, they need to be able to beat teams like the Seattle Seahawks. It is a statement game for Lions staff and players alike. I would expect the line move closer to 6 before Sunday. I am picking the Lions to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 @Philelphia Eagles -6.5
2022 ATS Record: Jaguars 2-1. Eagles 2-1
The return of the former Eagles head coach Doug Pederson will sure to be emotional; he is the only coach in Eagles history to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy and has had a huge impact on changing the culture in Philadelphia. Philadelphia has started the season extremely well. Jalen Hurts has seen a significant jump in his ability as an NFL quarterback, DeVonta Smith looks one year more experienced and dangerous, and the addition of A.J Brown has proved to be significant. Not only are they getting offensive contributions, but their defense looks like their defense of 2017 when they made their Super Bowl run.
On the flip side, the transformation in Jacksonville is happening, and Lawrence is showing why he went first overall two seasons ago. They look like a totally new team that has swagger and young players stepping up. Offensively, these two teams match up quite evenly after three weeks; both teams have scored over 22 points in all their games combined and rank top 6 in yards per game. The discrepancy comes on the defensive side of the ball. Oddsmakers have not valued the defense of the Jaguars according to how their statistics match up. The Jaguars are 5th best in points against per game, but a win against an injured Justin Herbert last week and a shutout against the Indianapolis Colts, who’s offense looks atrocious, were not enough to gain confidence from Vegas. According to the opponents thus far, the wins coming from Jacksonville have been more impressive than that coming from Philadelphia, even though neither team has faced a playoff team from a year ago.
I believe Jacksonville will continue to ride the momentum of the last two weeks and keep this game close for coach Pederson. Pick the Jags to cover.
Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 @ Houston Texans +4.5
2022 ATS Record: Chargers 2-1. Texans 2-0-1
A record of 1-3 would be a very difficult hole to climb out of in the AFC race for the Los Angeles Chargers. With such high expectations every season, the Chargers will enter Week 4 in must win mode. Only seven teams have made the playoffs since 1978 after going 1-4, and that is a scary thought for Chargers fans. If Herbert was healthy, this would be a no brainer, but I believe taking the gamble that a not 100% Herbert is a lot better than most quarterbacks, my guess is he will play in a situation like they are entering Sunday. If they were 3-0 right now, it would be a different story.
The Texans have a 29th ranked offense and a 29th ranked defense against on paper one of the best teams in football who are entering desperation mode. I am picking the Chargers to cover in this matchup, and the line will drastically change when Herbert is announced that he is playing.
In a year of the underdog, I am picking two favorites to cover, which includes the red-hot offense of the Detroit Lions and the star-studded Los Angeles Chargers. Lastly, my underdog pick of the week will be the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will put the NFL on notice Sunday. Good luck on all your picks this week.
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