NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11
Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.
With each team officially past the halfway mark of their season, the only thing we can be sure of is that it will be one helluva finish. The battle raging in the AFC North might be the most interesting divisional fight in recent memory. While having only one loss separating all four teams is nothing new, the fact that they all have winning records is quite impressive. In the last 20 years, we've seen divisions have three teams with a winning record and the last-place team with a .500 mark, but not with all four having more wins than losses. While there is still a lot of season left, this is one of the exciting storylines to be played out.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
14 points- Dallas over Carolina: When they're on their game, the Cowboys are as dominant as the Eagles or Chiefs. There could be a little letdown after last week's demolition of the division rival New York Giants, but that should just mean they don't cover the 10.5-point spread.
13 points- Buffalo over NY Jets: After the Bills' shocking loss to Denver on Monday night, they should come out roaring mad. When you factor in that the Bills are 8-3 SU in their last 11 home games against the Jets, you get a no-brainer.
12 points- Miami over Las Vegas: While I'm not entirely sold on Miami being a threat in the playoffs, they do completely take care of their business against weaker teams. The Raiders squarely fall into that category.
11 points- San Francisco over Tampa Bay: It seemed like the 49ers had a mid-season crisis, dropping three consecutive games. They got back on track last week against Jacksonville and look to beat up some more on the state of Florida. Tampa Bay is 2-10 SU in their previous 12 games on the road against the Niners.
10 points- Detroit over Chicago: Chicago's new starter, Tyson Bagent, has filled in admirably for the injured Justin Fields. However, his two victories came against the 5-5 Raiders and 1-8 Panthers. Detroit is a significant step up in competition. The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine road games.
9 points- Baltimore over Cincinnati (Thur. night): The Ravens will look to put some distance between themselves and the Bengals. Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in their last six games against AFC opponents.
8 points- Washington over NY Giants: The Giants are in complete disarray now, and it shows on the field. Their pass offense wasn't great with Daniel Jones, and they're now on their third QB, Tommy Devito. They rank last in points scored and total yards gained. The defense is 29th in points allowed and 27th in yards given up.
7 points- Minnesota over Denver (Sun. night): Vikings' QB Kirk Cousins was sadly one of the high-profile injuries this season, blowing out his Achilles. Minnesota traded for Arizona backup Joshua Dobbs, and he stepped right in and looked sharp against New Orleans. Denver has a letdown after their huge Buffalo win.
6 points- Houston over Arizona: This is a first for me, picking a rookie QB this high. However, the Texans QB CJ Stroud has made me a believer. Arizona will welcome the return of their young star QB Kyler Murray. However, after missing the last eight games, he's bound to have some rust.
5 points- Green Bay over LA Chargers: I can't think of a more disappointing team this season than the Rams. Now they travel to Lambeau Field to take on a Packers squad that is 1-7 SU in their last eight meetings. The Chargers' second-to-worst defense in total yards allowed and worst in passing yards surrendered should be just the recipe for Packers' QB Jordan Love.
4 points- Tennessee over Jacksonville: Rookie QB Will Levis has been serviceable since stepping in for the injured Ryan Tannehill. This pick is strictly from a divisional rival angle, as the Titans are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against the Jaguars.
3 points- LA Rams over Seattle: This game needs some slight monitoring, as Rams' QB Matthew Stafford is questionable on the injury report with a thumb issue. If he doesn't go, take Seattle on the road. The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against the Seahawks in Los Angeles.
2 points- Cleveland over Pittsburgh: Now that Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is done for the season, this pick drops a few points in confidence but still ultimately remains the same. The league's best defensive unit for yards allowed will expose the Pittsburgh Steelers magic act. The Browns are also sixth in points allowed, seventh against the rush, and first against the pass. To counter, the Steelers trot out the 28th-ranked offense in yards gained and 28th-ranked defense in yards allowed.
1 point- Kansas City over Philadelphia (Mon. night): A rematch of last year's Super Bowl and a possible preview of this year's title game. This game also bears monitoring: if Taylor Swift is in Arrowhead, her beau, TE Travis Kelce, will have a big game.
Here is my record for the season so far:
Week 1: 9-7 59 total points
Week 2: 12-4 119 total points
Week 3: 10-6 79 total points
Week 4: 10-6 97 total points
Week 5: 6-8 69 total points
Week 6: 11-4 84 total points
Week 7: 6-7 41 total points
Week 8: 11-5 101 total points
Week 9: No article
Week 10: 9-5 67 total points
Total: 84-52 (61.3%) avg. 79.5 points per week
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