NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13
From as early as I can remember, I was in love with football. That passion is one of the reasons Thanksgiving has always held a special place in my heart. It was the rare time when my far‑flung family gathered around the table for dinner and football. I was much younger than all my cousins, which meant I played the role of the pest. Most of my older cousins suited up for their high school teams, and one of them, Jimmy, went even further. After four years of Division III ball, he tried out for the then‑Washington Redskins in a Vince Papale‑style leap of faith.
When I was six, I created one of my fondest memories. I had pestered Jimmy until he finally gave in and let me join the annual Thanksgiving Day tackle football game. A few minutes in, I snagged an interception. When I was gently tackled, the wind was knocked out of me, and Jimmy looked like he had seen a ghost as I rolled on the ground. After what felt like an eternity for both of us, I popped up and declared, "First and goal, my team. Come on now, let's keep playing."
Years later, Thanksgiving carried new meaning. In high school, the league I played in held an All‑Star game for seniors from teams that hadn't made the playoffs. On my second Thanksgiving in the Navy, my ship was on an anti‑narcotics patrol. Our captain made sure we were close enough to land to pick up a TV feed (this was 1996, so technology was nowhere near what it is today). My favorite memory from that trip was calling home through a communication link we set up with regional amateur radio operators. After waiting in line for an hour, I finally got my turn. I told my father I loved him and Mom very much, then asked the only question that mattered to me: "What bowl game is Penn State going to?"
As I look back on more than half a century of Thanksgivings, I am grateful for moments like these, and countless others. I am also thankful to you, my reading audience, for allowing me to invade your cyber‑space each week with my sometimes funny, sometimes sentimental "Joey Stories" before I continue my quest to pick the perfect ticket. All of the cappers and staff at Doc's wish you and your loved ones nothing but the best this holiday season.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
16 – Philadelphia vs. Chicago (Fri) Philadelphia owns a 4-0 straight-up record over Chicago in the last four meetings, outscoring them 94-52. The Eagles rank first in the NFC in rushing defense at just 94 yards allowed per game, setting up a favorable matchup against a Bears offense that averages 25.5 points on the road but now faces an 8-3 squad with the division's top red-zone efficiency at 62 percent. Winner: Philadelphia
15 – New England vs. NY Giants (MNF) New England rides a nine-game winning streak to a 10-2 record, anchored by a defense allowing 18.8 points per game, sixth in the league, and just 87.7 rushing yards per contest, second-fewest in the NFL. The Patriots face a Giants offense averaging 17.2 points during a 2-10 skid and ranking 30th in red-zone trips at 48 percent. Winner: New England
14 – Indianapolis vs. Houston Indianapolis has four wins in the last five against their division foes from Texas, and boasts a perfect 6-0 home record with the league's best yards per play at 6.5. The Colts' rushing attack ranks third at 148 yards per game, targeting a Texans defense that allows 92.2 rushing yards but has surrendered 132.8 in recent outings during Houston's 6-5 campaign. Winner: Indianapolis
13 – LA Chargers vs. Las Vegas The Chargers rank second in points allowed at 18.2 per game while holding opponents to 5.3 yards per play, seventh in the NFL. They meet a Raiders offense averaging a league-low 15.2 points during a 2-9 skid and five-game losing streak. Winner: LA Chargers
12 – Kansas City vs. Dallas (Thu) Kansas City trails 5-7 all-time against Dallas but has covered in three of the last four meetings. The Chiefs' offense ranks second in EPA per play at 0.16 and averages 25.2 points per game, ninth in the league. They challenge a Cowboys defense allowing 24.5 points during a 5-5-1 stretch, including 26 in their latest loss. Winner: Kansas City
11 – Jacksonville at Tennessee Jacksonville has won three of the last four against Tennessee. The Jaguars rank eighth in rushing at 128 yards per game while having the NFL's best rush defense, allowing just 83.8 rushing yards per game. Their 7-4 record exploits a Titans squad at 1-10, with six straight home losses and a 25th-ranked run defense that allows 132 yards. Winner: Jacksonville
10 – San Francisco at Cleveland San Francisco trails in the series against Cleveland 20-10, but has an offense ranking sixth in the NFC at 348 yards per game and is following back-to-back road wins. The 49ers' 8-4 mark targets a Browns defense yielding 22.2 points per outing, 13th in the league, but vulnerable with 102.3 rushing yards allowed recently. Winner: San Francisco
09 – Seattle vs. Minnesota Seattle holds a 13-7 historical edge over Minnesota, including three wins in the last five. The Seahawks boast the NFL's 5th-best passing efficiency (104.2 quarterback rating) and rank sixth in scoring defense (19.5 points allowed). Their 8-3 record matches up against a Vikings squad at 4-7 that ranks 28th in third-down defense at 42 percent during a 1-4 stretch. Winner: Seattle
08 – LA Rams at Carolina The Rams enter with the NFC's best record at 9-2 and rank first in scoring defense, allowing 16.3 points per game. Los Angeles has won four straight home games by double digits, while Carolina sits at 3-8 and is ranked 28th in points allowed overall at 18.0. Winner: LA Rams
07 – Baltimore vs. Cincinnati (Thu) Baltimore has won three of the last five against Cincinnati, outscoring the Bengals 154-140 in those games. The Ravens' rushing attack averages 138 yards per game, sixth in the NFL, fueling a 6-5 record and five-game win streak. They face a Bengals defense allowing the league's worst 32.7 points per game. Winner: Baltimore
06 – Detroit vs. Green Bay (Thu) Detroit has taken three of the last five from Green Bay. The Lions rank second in scoring at 29.6 points per game and hold a 7-4 record with a 4-1 home mark. They target a Packers defense allowing 18.4 points per game amid Green Bay's 7-3-1 record but just 2-2 in divisional play. Winner: Detroit
05 – Tampa Bay vs. Arizona Tampa Bay holds an 11-11 all-time tie with Arizona but has won four of the last six, including a 19-16 overtime victory in 2022. They face a Cardinals offense averaging just 22.5 points during a 3-8 campaign with five halftime leads squandered into losses. Winner: Tampa Bay
04 – Denver at Washington (SNF) Denver seeks to extend its eight-game win streak against a Washington team at 3-8 that has lost six straight and ranks 28th in points allowed at 26.9 per game. The Broncos' secondary leads the league in red-zone completion percentage at 35.7 percent against a struggling Commanders offense racked by injuries. Winner: Denver
03 – Miami vs. New Orleans Miami has a slight edge in the series over New Orleans at 7-6, with a 3-1 home record against the Saints. The Dolphins' speed-based offense will test a Saints defense that allowed 24.9 points per game during a 2-9 campaign, with nine losses in 10 outings. Winner: Miami
02 – Buffalo at Pittsburgh Buffalo trails 13-17 historically against Pittsburgh, but has won four of the last five meetings. The Bills' rushing attack sits atop the league leaders at 147 yards per game, supporting a 7-4 record. They exploit a Steelers run defense allowing 105 yards per contest, 15th in the NFL, amid Pittsburgh's 6-5 campaign. Winner: Buffalo
01 – NY Jets vs. Atlanta Atlanta has won five of the last seven meetings with the Jets, including a 27-20 victory in their most recent clash. The Falcons rank in the top 10 in third-down conversion rate at 44 percent and face a Jets defense that has allowed 26.5 points per game and sits at 2-9 overall. Winner: Atlanta
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