NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12

by Joey House - 11/19/2025

One of my favorite movies is the 2005 romantic comedy Fever Pitch, starring Drew Barrymore and Jimmy Fallon. Though it focuses on the 2003 Boston Red Sox and their improbable World Series run, there is a moment that resonates with me. Barrymore's character, Lindsay Meeks, is a driven account executive who meets Ben Wrightman (Fallon) when he brings some of his 9th-grade geometry class to her office for a field trip. As she explains her responsibilities and quizzes the students, one blurts out, "Oh my God, she knows my secret shame!" Lindsay smiles and replies, "Well, step into the light, my friend, because this is the church of numbers and every day is Sunday." That line has always stayed with me. I have been a stats nerd since childhood, rolling dice in Strat‑o‑Matic and APBA Baseball, and later buying Pure Stat Baseball, the first computer game I ever purchased with my own money.

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After going 25‑4 over the past two weeks, I started to wonder how this campaign compares to the last two seasons. The numbers tell a clear story of steady growth, with 2025‑26 standing out as the best yet. Through 11 weeks, our record is 110‑54, a 67% winning percentage, up from last year's 104‑60 mark at 63.4%. The points earned show even sharper progress. In our first season, we totaled 801 points, 66.4% of a possible 1,206, though we missed Week 9. The following year, with every week accounted for, we climbed to 882 points, 67.3% of 1,310. This season, we have already reached 947 of 1,310, a robust 72.3%. I know there is still room to improve, but seeing the upward trend is both satisfying and motivating.

Week 12 Games

14 – Detroit Lions vs. NY Giants Detroit has won four of the last five meetings, including three straight, and continues to lean on a rushing attack that ranks fourth in the league at 142 yards per game. The Giants' defense allows the third-most rushing yards and the highest yards per carry, a mismatch that favors the Lions. Winner: Detroit

13 – Baltimore Ravens @ NY Jets Baltimore has taken the last three matchups, and its defense ranks second in points allowed over the past five games. That unit faces a Jets offense averaging just 17 points during a 2-8 skid. Winner: Baltimore

12 – Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Buffalo enters at 7-3 after a six-touchdown performance from Josh Allen, powering an offense that averages 28.4 points per game, third in the NFL. Houston has struggled to close games, leaving them vulnerable to the Bills' firepower. Winner: Buffalo

11 – Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings Green Bay has won two of the last three at home and boasts the NFC's top quarterback rating. Minnesota's 1-4 stretch and poor third-down defense set the stage for another Packers win. Winner: Green Bay

10 – New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals New England's defense allows just 20.5 points per game and has consistently contained AFC North opponents. Cincinnati's offense, missing key playmakers, ranks near the bottom in red-zone efficiency. Winner: New England

09 – Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans Seattle's defense has held opponents to 20 points or fewer in seven straight games. Tennessee, at 1-9, averages a league-low 15.2 points, making this a clear edge for the Seahawks. Winner: Seattle

08 – Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia has won three of the last four in the rivalry and owns the NFC's top rushing defense. Dallas has struggled offensively during a midseason slide, leaving the Eagles in control. Winner: Philadelphia

07 – San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers San Francisco leads the NFC in total offense and already routed Carolina earlier this year. The Panthers' defense has collapsed, surrendering over 40 points per game in recent outings. Winner: San Francisco

06 – Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Atlanta's passing attack has shown signs of life, while New Orleans has dropped nine of ten and scored just 10 points combined in its last three games. Winner: Atlanta

05 – Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Chicago's offense ranks seventh in scoring during a 7-3 surge, testing a Steelers defense that has struggled on the road. Winner: Chicago

04 – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals Jacksonville has scored 29 or more points in three straight games, with Travis Etienne leading a ground game targeting Arizona's weak run defense. Winner: Jacksonville

03 – Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns Las Vegas has won all three meetings since relocating and features a top-10 pass rush. Cleveland's offense ranks last in scoring and has been plagued by turnovers. Winner: Las Vegas

02 – Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Indianapolis owns the AFC's best conference record and relies on Jonathan Taylor to power the league's top rushing attack. Kansas City's defense has struggled against the run, giving the Colts the edge. Winner: Indianapolis

01 – LA Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Rams have won four of the last six meetings and rank second in scoring defense. Tampa Bay's offense has failed to reach double digits in three of its last five road games. Winner: LA Rams

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Start:	November 23, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12

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