NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11

by Joey House - 11/12/2025

With the recent indictments and revelations about the rigging of games in professional sports leagues in the U.S., a familiar theme has resurfaced regarding the scripting of NFL games. This conspiratorial concept becomes even more prevalent among fans and bettors when their heavily favored team or pick loses outright. The future Hall of Famer, QB Tom Brady, said it perfectly when he was asked what he thought about the NFL being scripted. "Do I think the NFL is scripted? You think I really would have played along with a script that had me losing to Peyton Manning's little brother Eli twice in the Super Bowl? No."

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However, if you don't believe "Tommy Ballgame", then you probably also believe that I have an advanced copy of this year's script, given that I went 12-2 and earned 90 out of a possible 105 points last week. I rarely check my picks versus the results until I start writing my column Monday evening during the Monday Night Football game. I did know, however, that Buffalo had been a very high selection of mine last week, so I went through Sunday thinking it was going to be an average week at best. Imagine my surprise when I began my tally and discovered Carolina was my only other defeat. To borrow Hannibal's catch phrase from "The A-Team", "I love it when a plan comes together."

15 – New England vs. NY Jets (TNF) The Patriots enter at 8-2 with a remarkable seven-game win streak, outscoring opponents by an average of 12 points per game in Foxborough. The Jets, now 2-8, have dropped six straight road games and committed 15 turnovers during that stretch. New England holds a clear edge in this primetime rivalry. Winner: New England

14 – Baltimore vs. Cleveland Baltimore ranks third in rushing at 148 yards per game and faces a Browns defense ranked 28th against the run, allowing 140 per contest over their last five. The Ravens have won three straight, while the Browns have dropped four of their last six. Expect Baltimore's ground game to control this divisional matchup. Winner: Baltimore

13 – Green Bay vs. NY Giants Green Bay leads the all-time series 34-28 and has won five of the last seven meetings. The Packers boast the NFC's top passing efficiency with a 102.5 quarterback rating, poised to exploit a Giants defense that has allowed a league-worst 18 interceptions during their 2-8 skid. Winner: Green Bay

12 – Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati The Steelers hold a 71-41 historical edge and have covered in seven of their last ten against Cincinnati. The Bengals rank 29th in red-zone efficiency at 48 percent, while Pittsburgh's defense forces turnovers on 22 percent of opponent drives. Winner: Pittsburgh

11 – Houston vs. Tennessee Houston leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 16.7 points per game, and boasts a 7-2 record, including a flawless 4-0 home mark. Tennessee, averaging just 15.2 points, has lost seven straight road games and sits at 1-8 overall. Winner: Houston

10 – San Francisco vs. Arizona The 49ers have won two straight on the road and rank fifth in turnover margin at plus-7. Their offense averages 376 yards per game and targets Arizona's 26th-ranked pass defense, which has allowed 245 yards per game through the air. Winner: San Francisco

09 – Dallas vs. Las Vegas (MNF) Dallas looks to snap a two-game skid. The Cowboys' special teams rank top-5 in field position advantage, a key edge against a Raiders squad that's 2-9 and ranks 30th in punt coverage. Winner: Dallas

08 – LA Rams vs. Seattle: The Rams, at 7-2, feature the league's second-best scoring defense, allowing 17.0 points per game. Seattle's offense has cooled to 20 points per game over the last three weeks, and the Seahawks are 2-3 on the road with a minus-4 turnover differential. Winner: LA Rams

07 – Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay: Buffalo's offense ranks third in scoring, averaging 28.4 points per game, and has won four straight home games against NFC opponents. The Bills are 6-3 and face a Bucs defense ranked 24th against the run, allowing 128 yards per contest. Winner: Buffalo

06 – LA Chargers vs. Jacksonville The Chargers are 7-3 in their last 10 games against Jacksonville. Their pass rush ranks seventh with 28 sacks, and they face a Jaguars offense that ranks 25th in third-down conversions. Winner: LA Chargers

05 – Miami vs. Washington Miami leads the AFC with 8 forced fumbles and holds a 10-6 series advantage. Washington, now 4-6, has just one win in its last seven games. The Dolphins are 3-1 at home against the Commanders, averaging 27 points in those matchups. Winner: Miami

04 – Minnesota vs. Chicago Minnesota leads the rivalry 69-58 and won a 27-24 thriller to open this season, scoring 21 points in the 4th quarter to erase a 17-6 deficit. The Vikings rank second in yards per completion at 12.1 and face a Bears secondary that's allowed 14 passing touchdowns and ranks 22nd overall. Winner: Minnesota

03 – Carolina vs. Atlanta: Carolina has won two of its last three road games, powered by a resurgent ground attack that averages 132 rushing yards per game during that stretch. The Panthers trail the series 37-50 but face an Atlanta team that's lost three straight at home, allowing 26 points per game. Winner: Carolina

02 – Philadelphia vs. Detroit (SNF) Philadelphia ranks first in rushing at 176 yards per game and sits fifth in power rankings at 7-2. The Eagles have covered nine of their last eleven primetime games and bring a plus-9 turnover margin into this matchup against Detroit's shaky pass protection. Winner: Philadelphia

01 – Denver vs. Kansas City: Denver's defense ranks third in scoring, at 17.3 points per game, and second in EPA per play. The Broncos are 8-2 and have won three of their last five against Kansas City, who enters at 7-3 but just 2-2 in divisional road games. Winner: Denver

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Start:	November 12, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11

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