NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14

by Spencer Toth - 12/3/2025

As we continue to digest the Thanksgiving feast from last week’s amazing NFL slate, it is already time to look ahead at the confidence picks for Week 14. Navigating a confidence pool is no easy task, as it is often tempting to pick all the favorites, ranked by highest to lowest point spread, but that will not secure you the win at the season’s end. It takes a certain level of caution to come out on top, and I hope to deliver you just that with the Week 14 picks. It is a crucial slate brimming with divisional matchups with huge playoff implications. This highly anticipated, tightly contested group of Week 14 games will be peak entertainment, and following these confidence pool picks will only add to the fun. We’ll be mixing it up with a few underdogs this week in hopes of breaking away from the chasing pack. Joey House is out this week, so I will provide this week’s picks and he will be back next week!

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

14- Rams vs Cardinals The Los Angeles Rams were unlucky to lose to the Panthers last week, and there is no reason this one should even be close. The Cardinals have lost nine of their last ten games, their defense is banged up, and they are facing off against the MVP frontrunner in Matthew Stafford. There is no more complete squad in the league, and no reason to look elsewhere for the top pick of the week. Winner: Los Angeles Rams

13- Seahawks vs Falcons The Seahawks have stormed to the top of the NFC West, and the Falcons will not be the ones to slow them down. Even though Atlanta has a strong passing defense, the Seahawks still have the better run game, and we can’t trust Kirk Cousins against this hungry defense. Seattle has scored 26+ points in five of the last six weeks, and we can’t trust the Falcons to match that kind of production. Winner: Seattle Seahawks

12- Broncos vs Raiders Divisional matchups can be tricky, and while the Broncos haven’t been the most reliable team in terms of convincing victories, they keep finding ways to get the job done. Is there anything to like about the Raiders right now? Only the fact that they are firing their coaching staff. Unfortunately, that won’t change their on-field outlook, and Denver will cruise to another heart-stopping win. Winner: Las Vegas Raiders

11- Saints vs Buccaneers The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the benefit of beating up on a truly terrible NFC South, and they have another opportunity to do so against the lowly Saints. Tyler Shough will not save the Saints' offense, which is bottom five in rushing yards, total yards, and points scored. The Buccaneers cannot afford to lose this one with the Panthers hot on their heels, and a bit of vintage play from Baker Mayfield will allow them to eventually pull away. Winner: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10- Ravens vs Steelers The Ravens are fighting for their playoff life, and can take control of the AFC North with a win against Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a quarterback with a broken hand and a career backup to choose from, while the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the league. Mike Tomlin is often able to rally with his back against the wall, but his time in Pittsburgh may be up with a heavy defeat at the hands of their division rival. Winner: Baltimore Ravens

9- Chiefs vs Texans (SNF) The Kansas City Chiefs will be virtually eliminated from the playoffs with a loss, and I just don’t see that happening. Patrick Mahomes plays his best football with the season on the line, and he will do enough to unlock a strong Texans defense. Kansas City is starting to get healthy, and we can’t trust CJ Stroud and an inconsistent Texans offense to prevail. Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

8- Cowboys vs Lions (TNF) Thursday Night Football will be a game with real NFC playoff implications, as the loser may end up missing the postseason. The edge goes to the Lions thanks to their stronger defensive play. These two offenses will go back and forth, but the Lions' defense will get the crucial stops they need. Winner: Detroit Lions

7- Bears vs Packers The impressive play from the Chicago Bears cannot be ignored, but the Packers are the much more well-rounded football team. Chicago has needed fourth-quarter heroics to climb to the top of the division, and the Packers will not let that happen again when they take a double-digit lead into the final frame. Green Bay is better on both sides of the ball, and a bit of extra rest will go a long way in this NFC North showdown. Winner: Green Bay Packers

6- Bills vs Bengals The Cincinnati Bengals got a feel-good win in Baltimore on Thanksgiving, but Joe Burrow’s return will not fix their issues on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo will adapt their game plan to pick apart their opponent’s biggest weakness, and the deep ball will be on for Josh Allen in this one. Joe Burrow and a lethal Bengals offense will keep pace for a while, but Cincinnati’s inability to get stops will cost them a win. Winner: Buffalo Bills

5- Dolphins vs Jets We are getting spicy here with the New York Jets over the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa’s passing stats are night-and-day when he goes on the road, and the Jets still have plenty to give despite selling at the trade deadline. New York has the better defensive unit and will ride that out to a narrow victory. Winner: New York Jets

4- Commanders vs Vikings The Commanders have the best quarterback in this matchup, and I am not talking about Jayden Daniels. Even Marcus Mariota is better than whoever the Vikings choose to roll out on Sunday, and the return of Terry McLaurin has only bolstered this offense. The Vikings do have the edge with Brian Flores’ strong defensive schemes, but it won’t be enough to win. Winner: Washington Commanders

3- Titans vs Browns Shedeur Sanders appears to be the future of the Cleveland Browns, and he has a great chance to shine at home against the lowly Titans. Tennessee doesn’t have anything to look forward to at this stage of the season, and they will quietly bow out to preserve their spot at the top of the 2026 NFL draft. Winner: Cleveland Browns

2- Colts vs Jaguars The slight edge here goes to the Indianapolis Colts and their strong run game. Jacksonville doesn’t have the interior defensive line presence to slow down Jonathan Taylor, and a heavy dosage of ground attacks will allow the Colts to win. Jacksonville has lost due to too many self-inflicted wounds this season, and even with a broken fibula, Daniel ‘Indiana’ Jones will get the job done. Winner: Indianapolis Colts

1- Eagles vs Chargers (MNF) The Eagles cannot be trusted to beat a solid Chargers team, given how Philly has looked in recent weeks. The extra rest does give them the edge, but it is still hard to have much confidence in them at this stage of the season. The real difference-maker will be their pass rush against a struggling Chargers offensive line, which gives them the nod by the finest of margins. Winner: Philadelphia Eagles

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Start:	December 3, 2025 @ 6:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14

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