NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14
Welcome to Doc's Sports NFL Confidence Pool Picks, where we analyze the slate of NFL games each week and give you both the selections to make and the corresponding "confidence value" to go along with the pick.
There are no more bye weeks in the NFL after this week. Hopefully, this should help our scores by focusing on the teams that have clearly given up and are looking forward to January 8, the day after the season ends.
One factor making this season slightly challenging to handicap is the rash of injuries at the quarterback position. So far this season, the number of starting QBs who have missed games due to injuries has risen 30 percent over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Through Week 13, there have been 53 different QBs to start at least one game. The NFL is on pace for an all-time high of 73 QBs to start a game. After Jacksonville's Trevor Lawerence injured his ankle in Monday night's overtime loss to Cincinnati, neither team had their franchise quarterback under center (Bengals' QB Joe Burrow injured his wrist two weeks before against Baltimore).
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
15 points- Miami over Tennessee (MNF): Surprisingly enough, the Dolphins are not one of the teams to deal with an injured QB this year. If you're like me, you hate having your biggest pick play last. However, with Miami undefeated at home this season (6-0 SU) and also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games (they are 13-point favorites), we're just saving the best for last.
14 points- San Francisco over Seattle: Dating back to their game on December 26, 2020, the 49ers have gone 8-2 SU and ATS in December. Talk about saving your best for last! These rivals met two weeks ago, with Seattle suffering a home loss, 31-13. It could be worse in San Francisco.
13 points- Baltimore over LA Rams: With a 3-10 SU record in road games, the Rams clearly believe in the motto from "The Wizard of Oz": There's no place like home. The Ravens are tied with the Dolphins for first-place and home-field advantage in the AFC. The Rams offense is 15th in the league in both rushing and passing yards. The Ravens defense is as fearsome as ever, second against the rush and 11th against the pass.
12 points- Green Bay over NY Giants (MNF): I went against this trend last week, costing me major points. Green Bay has now won 16 consecutive games in the month of December. However, that's not the only reason I am picking the Packers, as the Giants are 3-7 SU this season and 1-9-1 SU in their last December 11th games.
11 points- Houston over NY Jets: The Jets are perhaps the team affected most by the aforementioned QB injuries, losing future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers on the 3rd snap of the first game of the year. Even though they went on to win that game, the Jets' QB situation has been a dumpster fire, ranking 31st in the league in passing yards and last in passing TDs. It didn't take long for the Texans' rookie QB C.J. Stroud to acclimate to the NFL: after losing his first two games, Stroud has gone 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in his last 10 games.
10 points- Dallas over Philadelphia (SNF): As a lifelong Eagles fan, this pick pains me. But Philly's franchise QB, Jalen Hurts, is not 100% healthy. Add in the fact that Dallas has the 3rd most passing yards and leads the NFL in passing TDs (26) against the Eagles secondary that is 29th in passing yards and second-to-last against passing touchdowns (29), and this has blowout written all over it. The fact that it's a divisional game and Philadelphia is 12-2 SU in their last 14 road games is the only reason it's not the biggest pick.
9 points- Detroit over Chicago: Now and then, the pundits get it right. Detroit was a favorite preseason pick by many and now find themselves just one game out of the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The good news for the Bears is they have the best-rushing defense for yards in the NFL and the 3rd best in allowing rushing TDs. The bad news is their passing defense is 25th in the league in yards and 30th in passing TDs allowed.
8 points- Las Vegas over Minnesota: The magic of Josh Dobbs has worn off. After an impressive start that included two wins, he (and the Vikings) have been bad. They gave up an 8-point fourth-quarter lead in losing to Denver and had four interceptions in a 12-10 home loss to Chicago. Las Vegas has won five out of the last seven matchups against Minnesota at home.
7 points- New Orleans over Carolina: The Panthers are going to learn, rather quickly, that firing head coach Frank Reich isn't going to solve their issues. Only half of Carolina's 12 games have been within one score, including their only victory against Houston. That means they are getting badly beaten. While they have a good pass defense (4th in the league in yards), it's because teams can run at will against them (23rd in yards and dead-last in rushing TDs allowed). Both the Saints QBs, Derek Carr and Jamesis Winston, excel in the play-action pass. New Orleans' Carr is in the concussion protocol and is questionable for the game, but it won't matter.
6 points- LA Chargers over Denver: One of the most significant home-field advantages in the NFL is Denver's, with their high altitude. That shows in their 3-14 SU record over their last 17 road games. The Chargers, who are well known for getting hot late, also do so against the Broncos, going 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home against their division rivals from Denver.
5 points- Cincinnati over Indianapolis: This game is one of the battles to feature backup QBs. The Colts' Gardner Minshew has the experience, but the Bengals' Jake Browning and Cincinnati have more talent. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives, and the Bengals benefit from the home-field advantage.
4 points- Kansas City over Buffalo: Buffalo has to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year. The only season the Bills have not made the playoffs with QB Josh Allen leading the troops was his rookie campaign. However, that's a distinct possibility this season. Buffalo is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games and is a slight dog here (+2.5). The Chiefs are 16-4 SU in their last 20 home games.
3 points- Pittsburgh over New England (TNF): New England is in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, including losses to NFL powerhouses New York Giants and Washington Commanders. The Steelers are turning to Mitchell Trubisky after starting QB Kenny Pickett injured his ankle. The only starting QB that Trubisky may be better than is New England's Bailey Zappe.
2 points- Cleveland over Jacksonville: Injured Jaguars QB Trevor Lawerence only has six days to rehab his high ankle sprain. The Jags will also be without their number one option at wideout, Christian Kirk. Jacksonville's backup QB, journeyman C.J. Bethard, is 2-10 in his 12 career starts and has not made a start since the 2020 season. The Browns' P.J. Walker isn't much better, going 1-1 in his two starts this season. This would be a great under to look at for you totals bettors out there.
1 point- Atlanta over Tampa Bay: The NFC South may not be good, but it certainly is competitive. The Falcons have a surprisingly good rush game; they are 6th in the NFL in yards. Tampa Bay's overall defense is porous, 27th in the league in total yards allowed, but decent against the rush (10th). If the Falcons can get their ground game in gear, they will build their lead in their division. If not, a tight race becomes even tighter with the possibility of a 3-way tie.
Here is my record for the season so far:
Week 1: 9-7 59 total points
Week 2: 12-4 119 total points
Week 3: 10-6 79 total points
Week 4: 10-6 97 total points
Week 5: 6-8 69 total points
Week 6: 11-4 84 total points
Week 7: 6-7 41 total points
Week 8: 11-5 101 total points
Week 9: No article
Week 10: 9-5 67 total points
Week 11: 10-4 85 total points
Week 12: 10-6 90 total points
Week 13: 8-5 58 total points
Total: 112-67 (62.6%)
Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.
Most Recent NFL Confidence Pool Picks
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 14
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 13
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 12
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 11
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 10
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 9
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 8
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 7
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 6
- NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 5