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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 18

by Corey Ghee - 1/4/2023

NFL confidence pool picks Week 18 Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

Welcome back to our weekly confidence pool advice for another NFL week. I want to wish everyone happy holidays and that we all cash out big here to start off the new year. This week we have some insane value as we are getting a lot of these teams as short favorites. The race for a spot in the playoffs is coming to an end, as there are teams neck-and-neck trying to obtain a seat at the table. This week is going to be important, as many teams will get knocked out of contention after this weekend. I want to wish you guys good luck on your bets and to your favorite team.

So, without further hesitation, here are our week 17 NFL confidence pool picks. As a reminder, these will be ranked from strongest to weakest. All picks are straight up and don’t involve the spread, so these picks can be valuable for NFL survivor pools and moneyline betting.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

San Francisco 49ers (-950) over Arizona Cardinals: 16 Points

San Francisco comes into Sunday with a ton of momentum and a chance to secure home-field advantage, and there’s no reason they slow down here against an inferior division foe. Arizona has been a mess this season. And with Kyler Murray out for the season, and a 4-12 record, they will be playing for nothing in the Bay this weekend. The Niners might not cover the massive 12-point spread, but things could get ugly this weekend; there’s very little chance they drop this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (-900) over New York Giants: 15 Points

A return home should do the top-seeded Eagles some justice. A division crown, and an opportunity to obtain home-field advantage this postseason, will provide all of the motivation Philly needs to beat the Giants here. This is what they’ve played for all season.

Kansas City Chiefs (-390) over Las Vegas Raiders: 14 Points

Kansas City can lock down home-field advantage with a win in Vegas this Sunday, and there’s no better time to trust Big Red and Patrick Mahomes. Las Vegas put together a solid showing last weekend versus the Niners, but that will not be the case here against a hungry Chiefs squad.

Green Bay Packers (-225) over Detroit Lions: 13 Points

A Lions/Packers matchup in Lambeau has been flexed to the final game of the regular season due to it potentially deciding the final NFC playoff spot, and it’s a beautiful story. Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions have put together an inspiring season, but it now hinges on a troubling obstacle. Green Bay has admirably stayed afloat and clawed back into the playoff picture themselves over the final stretch of the season, and this is as ideal as it could get to clinch a postseason spot. Aaron Rodgers at home with the season and money on the line versus the Detroit Lions. Don’t over think the silver lining on this one.

Buffalo Bills () over New England Patriots: 12 Points

Buffalo’s season was altered by forces beyond their measure, but they now come into an ideal spot to lock down home field through the postseason and end an arch rival's season. Bill Belichick attempted three passes and led the Pats to a win last year in Orchard Park, and the Bills will certainly look to strike revenge here. Buffalo will come into Sunday with heavy hearts, and they should prevail against an underwhelming New England team to eliminate them from playoff contention.

Minnesota Vikings (-240) over Chicago Bears: 11 Points

Minnesota will look to wrap up one of their best seasons in history on a strong note. The Vikes would need some improbable help from Arizona to land home field through the postseason, but they should still take care of business here. There’s also no reason for Chicago to miss out on a top-3 draft pick as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-270) over Tennessee Titans: 10 Points

Jacksonville finds themselves in an unexpected predicament, but they deserve to be here. The Jags have been one of the best teams in the league since their Week 11 bye, and a win lands them the AFC South crown and a first-round home playoff game. Tennessee’s season has been altered by injuries to Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry, so it’s safe to say their season is over.

Miami Dolphins (-116) over New York Jets: 9 Points

Miami has the best chance to secure the final spot in the postseason, to an extent. New England currently holds the final playoff spot, but they must head into Buffalo and win in order to secure it, which feels highly unlikely. All the Dolphins have to do is beat New York at home, and they’re in. It’s much simpler said than done, especially with this year’s Jets, but it’s more than an ideal scenario for Miami to advance into the postseason. Look for them to capitalize on that and win this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-154) over Cleveland Browns: 8 Points

After beating Baltimore on the road last week, Pittsburgh finds themselves right in the mix for the final playoff spot. Now it requires both New England and Miami to lose, but there should still be a sense of urgency from the Steelers win this divisional game here. It’s been too little, too late for Cleveland all season. And with a spot postseason on the line, I feel good trusting Mike Tomlin’s squad in this spot at home.

Indianapolis Colts (-154) over Houston Texans: 7 Points

Two of the NFL’s worst teams will cross paths in Indy this weekend when the Colts and Texans line up. There are no postseason aspirations for either side, and there’s absolutely no reason for the Texans to complicate landing the first overall pick in Spring. It may serve as more of an assessment of Jeff Saturday than anything for the Colts going into the off-season.

Cincinnati Bengals () over Baltimore Ravens: 6 Points

A Bengals loss on Monday would have put the AFC North title on the line. However, with the division crown likely secured, Cincy will come into this contest with a bit less to play for. That could prove to be problematic. However, considering they’ve won seven straight games, they’re worth trusting to close the season with a victory here. Baltimore has already clinched themselves, so there’s little chance Lamar Jackson suits up for this one. Monitor the statuses of both sides coming into Sunday, but roll with Cincinnati here.

Atlanta Falcons (-210) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5 Points

Speaking of little to play for, after clinching the hard-fought division last Sunday, there’s no reason Tom Brady or any of the key Buccaneers should suit up this weekend. Absolutely not against a formidable Falcons defense that would love to spoil Tampa’s postseason aspirations. If this is Todd Bowles approach Sunday, Atlanta may just be able to come away with the win here at home.

New Orleans Saints (-190) over Carolina Panthers: 4 Points

The NFC South was one heck of a tug-o-war this season. And with the originally favored Bucs coming away with the division crown, it leaves Carolina and New Orleans with little to play for in this spot. If anything, it may serve as an audition for Sam Darnold into next season, and that could result in the Saints favor at home. A win to close the regular season wouldn’t hurt Dennis Allen’s case as well.

Seattle Seahawks (-295) over Los Angeles Rams: 3 Points

Hats off to Pete Carroll and Geno Smith for staying aligned this season and proving a lot of people wrong. Smith’s career revival has been one of the best stories in sports. And while they might not hold onto the final spot with a victory, they will certainly look to win and stay in the playoff picture. Roll with the 12th Man and trust Pete Carroll in the big game at home.

Los Angeles Chargers (-172) over Denver Broncos: 2 Points

There’s a reason the Chargers are only three-point underdogs here, as this divisional matchup reeks of a spoiler spot. The trip to Mile High is never a walk in the park. And with the Broncos showing a pulse last week and already positively looking to the 2023-24 season, they won’t roll over for the Bolts here. Denver defended at a strong rate all season, and Los Angeles will have to earn everything here. Since the Chargers have already secured their playoff spot, monitor the status of their starters here.

Dallas Cowboys (-235) over Washington Commanders: 1 Point

We know how the story goes with these two teams. And with a division crowd potentially on the line, you know the Commanders would love to spoil that for the Cowboys. It would’ve been nice to see this one flexed into primetime, and Dallas will have to overcome a fierce FedEx Field crowd if they’d like to win the NFC East crown. A loss may mean a first-round trip to Tampa to see Tom Brady, so look for some effort here even with a playoff spot confirmed.

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