NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

by Joey House - 9/23/2026

Week 3 starts Thursday at the historic Lambeau Field, and it doesn't bother with a warm‑up. The league already feels like it's splitting into lanes. The 2–0 clubs are pushing air out of the room, the 0–2 clubs are already in that tight space where one more loss turns September into a disaster, and the middle tier is a carousel of teams that look broken on Sunday and borderline dangerous seven days later.

Last week we went 10–6 for 89 points, a clean enough read in a league that's already throwing curveballs. If Week 2 was about sorting noise from signal, Week 3 is about leaning into the chaos and trusting the board to tell you who's real.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Week 3 Games

16 points – San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals: Arizona stole Week 1 against the Chargers, then got flattened 31–7 at home. San Francisco has already handled the Rams and buried Miami 35–13. Levi's is a tough ask for an offense still searching for answers against a front already providing them.

15 points – Kansas City Chiefs over Miami Dolphins: Miami is 0–2 and has been outscored 62–26. Kansas City just survived Indianapolis in overtime and still looks like the team that finishes drives. Hard Rock helps Miami's speed, but not if they keep living behind the chains.

14 points – Seattle Seahawks over Washington Commanders: Seattle is 2–0 and just dropped 31 on Arizona. Washington is 0–2 after a 37–20 loss in Dallas. Lumen Field noise matters, but the Commanders' offense has not stayed on schedule for four quarters.

13 points – Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Chargers: Buffalo just hung 41 on Detroit. The Chargers are 0–2 and have not found a clean pocket in either game. Once Allen hits the first explosive, this becomes a chase Los Angeles has not shown it can win.

12 points – Cincinnati Bengals over Pittsburgh Steelers: Cincinnati is 2–0 after holding Houston to six. Pittsburgh just scored three in New England. Acrisure makes it physical, but it does not fix a Steelers attack stuck in first gear for two straight weeks.

11 points – Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears (MNF): Philadelphia is 2–0 and already won ugly on the road. Chicago scored 59 in Week 1 and three in Week 2. Soldier Field on Monday rewards the team that stays on schedule. The Eagles have done that. The Bears have not done it twice.

10 points – Green Bay Packers over Atlanta Falcons (TNF): Atlanta has scored 16 points in two games and just lost 34–3 at home. Green Bay needed overtime in New York, but an early Packers score forces Atlanta into a script it hasn't answered.

9 points – Minnesota Vikings over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Minnesota is 2–0 and just held Chicago to a field goal. Tampa is 0–2 after losing to Cleveland. Raymond James can give the Buccaneers moments, but not the four‑quarter consistency Minnesota's defense already has.

8 points – Detroit Lions over New York Jets: Detroit hung 31 in Buffalo and still lost. The Jets just dropped a home overtime game to Green Bay. Ford Field favors explosives. Detroit has them. New York has not shown them for a full afternoon.

7 points – Jacksonville Jaguars over New England Patriots: Jacksonville looked settled in Week 1, then lost a road grinder in Denver. New England blanked Pittsburgh 20–3, but this becomes a first‑down fight. Jacksonville's front can knock Maye off the Foxborough script.

6 points – Baltimore Ravens over Dallas Cowboys: Dallas just piled up 37 on Washington. Baltimore just lost to New Orleans. Rio removes the home edge, but not Lamar's ability to force Dallas into finishing drives it failed to finish in Week 1.

5 points – Carolina Panthers over Cleveland Browns: Carolina answered the 59‑point opener by winning 34–3 in Atlanta. Cleveland stole Tampa and now has to handle a team that proved it can play ugly and win. The Browns' offense has been feast or famine.

4 points – New Orleans Saints over Las Vegas Raiders: Las Vegas is 2–0 against flattened Miami and a sinking Chargers team. New Orleans just won in Baltimore. The Superdome is the first real test of that Raiders script. If the Saints stay even into the fourth, Las Vegas has not shown it can close.

3 points – Los Angeles Rams over Denver Broncos (SNF): The Rams buried the Giants 28–6 after the Melbourne hangover. Denver beat Jacksonville and still looks like a team living on short fields. The Rams' passing game waking up on Monday is the difference.

2 points – Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts: Both teams are 0–2. Houston hung with Buffalo, then got stuck at six against Cincinnati. Indianapolis took Kansas City to overtime and still left empty. Houston's path is simple: win first down and make Daniel Jones finish drives he has not finished.

1 point – New York Giants over Tennessee Titans: Tennessee is 0–2 and could not finish against Philadelphia. The Giants just got flattened in Los Angeles and may be without Jaxon Dart. MetLife turns this into a possession fight, and one stalled Titans series can swing it.

Season Totals

WEEK 1: 10-6 94 pts

WEEK 2: 10-6 89 pts

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Start:	September 23, 2026 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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NFL Confidence Pool Picks Week 3

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