NFL Week 8 Circa and Westgate Las Vegas Football Contest Report
There’s a three-way tie in the standings in the Circa Million V pro football contest between Castlerocker-1, DeadMoney-4, and ZeiwBruder-3 at 26.5 points (76.5%). ZweiBruder-3 (TwoBrothers in German) moved up to the three-way tie for first after going 5-0 in Week 7. Castelrocker-1 went 3-2 and DeadMoney-3 went 4-1, while my picks went 4-1. This brings my season record to 23-12 (65.7%) good enough for 104th place in the standings after seven weeks. The five consensus picks were 1-4 in Week 7: LA Chargers +5.5 (33.5%), Philadelphia -2.5 (32%), LA Rams -3 (32%), Cleveland -3 (32%), Tampa Bay -2.5 (29%).
Another week, another leader at the SuperBook. Underground-1, last week’s leader in the Westgate SuperContest, dropped to 30th place after going 0-5 in week 7 for a 23-12 record. Imthecapt1 took over sole possession of the lead as they went 4-1 and notched a 26-8-1 (76.5%) record and 26.5 points. Professional sports gamblers and poker players, and winners of the 2020-21 SuperContest, David Baker/Mark Gregorich (ODBMG3), dropped from fourth place to 67th after going 0-5 in week 7 for 22-13 record (62.9%). My picks went 4-1, which brings my season record to 21-14 good enough for 116th place in the standings after seven weeks. The five consensus picks were 1-4 in Week 7: Cleveland -2.5 (40%), LA Chargers +5.5 (36%), Philadelphia -2.5 (32%), Detroit +3 (31%), LA Rams -3 (29%)
Despite going 2-3 in Week 7, Bbissick retains sole possession of the lead with 28-7 (80%) online in the DraftKings $500 Main Event Pick ‘em. Bmarks3 is still in second with 27-8 (77.1%), and Jaypan rounds out the top three at 22-8 (73%) having utilized the skip week. My picks went 4-1, which brings my season record to 20-15, good enough for 350th place in the standings after seven weeks. The five consensus picks were 1-4 in Week 7: Cleveland -1.5 (59.43%), Detroit +3.5 (40.14%), Philadelphia -2.5 (37.10%), Washington -1.5 (35.62%), LA Chargers +5.5 (27.35%)
Last week I was 2-0 on my picks and moved to 8-6 on the season on my contest picks in this space.
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NY Jets (-2.5) vs NY GIANTS
The New York Jets (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) won’t have to travel very far when they face the NY Giants (2-5 SU, ATS) at METLIFE Stadium in New Jersey. The Jets are coming off a bye-week, while the Giants are coming off a 14-7 home win with back-up QB Tyrod Taylor (18-29, 279), who threw for two second-half touchdown passes. Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense recorded six-sacks. The Giants now have two straight covers, as they almost beat Buffalo the week before in Orchard Park as 10-point road dogs.
The Jets have to be pleased with a 3-3 record before the bye. Losing Aaron Rogers in the first game seemed insurmountable at the time. Now, after a brutal early season schedule, where they lost by a FG at home against the Chiefs, they almost beat the Patriots on a Hail Mary, and have notched wins against the Eagles and the Bills. The Jets have done it on defense. The Jets have limited those high scoring opponents to an average of 19.8 points-per-game and have eight interceptions against the Eagles, Bills, and the Chiefs.
The bye couldn't have come at a better time for the Jets, who were without CBs Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed against Philly. Both players were full participants in practice on Wednesday and are expected to play against the Giants anemic offense. The Jets, however, will most likely be without WR Randall Cobb (shoulder) and starting tackle Mekhi Becton (knee).
The Giants are going to have trouble moving the ball against the Jets D. The Giants O-Line is full of holes and has allowed 36 sacks on Jones and Taylor combined. One reason is that all-pro tackle Andrew Thomas has not played since opening week. The Giants somehow managed to score 31 points at Arizona, but take away that score and 16 points against Miami are the most points the Giants have scored. In those other six games, the Giants have averaged 9 points-per-game. In fact, the Giants have only hit the money line in seven of their last 22 games, or a -23% ROI and -6.45 Units.
The Giants are not healthy. Running back Saquon Barkley hyper-extended his elbow against Washington last week and was limited in practice on Wednesday, as were Tight End Darren Waller, linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, kicker Graham Gano and rookie center John Michael Schmitz. This does not bode well for the Giants offense.
Head-to-Head in the regular season, these two teams have faced-off four times since 2007 and are 2-2 SU and ATS. The Jets have won the last two games they played against the Giants; 34-27 as a 3-point underdog in 2019 and 23-20 in OT as a 2.5-favorite in 2015. They did, however, play against each other on August 26 this year in the preseason, and the Jets won 32-24.
I have a hard time seeing the Giants scoring more than 10 points in this game. The Giants games are 6-1 on the under, averaging 6.2 points under the posted totals. I expect these two defenses will battle in the trenches with the Jets ultimately winning and covering this game on a pick-6 or special teams TD. The total has been set at 36-points, and it rose to 36.5 points and the live-line on the side has jumped from 2.5 to the key number of three with the Jets taking 60% of the handle.
Take NY Jets -2.5 in all contests
Detroit Lions (-8.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) travel to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Lions (5-2 SU, SU, ATS) at Ford Field on Monday Night Football. This game opened with the home team a 7.5-point favorite but was quickly bet up to 8.5. The Raiders’ two-game win and covering streak came to an end with a 30-12 home loss as 3-point favorites last week against the Chicago Bears with rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start. Detroit lost last week at the Baltimore Ravens in a game that was never close.
Bears’ Bagent looked comfortable against the Raiders, leading the Bears to three touchdown drives in his first career start. The Bears won for the second time in three games and won the battle of back-up quarterbacks. One reason I picked the Bears last week was that I thought Bagent was a better back-up than Raiders backup quarterback, Brian Hoyer. Hoyer regressed after beating the Patriots the week before when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo left the game due to a back injury. Hoyer threw for 129 yards and 2 INTS and was 17 of 23 for a 37.1 passer rating against the Bears.
This week won’t be any easier for the Raiders as they face a much more potent Lions offense coming off a stinging 38-6 road loss as 3-point underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s quarterback Lamar Jackson exposed Detroit's’ secondary with successful deep passes, finding receivers that were wide open. Indeed, the Ravens had eight passes of at least 20 yards; the second most of all teams this season. The big question is if either Raiders’ back-up quarterback Hoyer or O'Connell take advantage of the weak secondary play of Detroit. I’m going to go out on a limb and say no.
Sometimes, home cooking is what you need after you’ve lost on the road. The Raiders have struggled at all positions this year and average only 16 points per game. The Raiders are also the only team in the NFL that hasn’t scored 21 points in at least one game. The Raiders haven't beaten a team with a winning record this season. I see this as a get-right game for the Lions and expect a double-digit home win.
Take the Detroit Lions -8.5 in all contests.
CIRCA MILLION V
BILLS -9.5 vs. Bucs +9.5
Saints -1 vs. COLTS +1
Jaguars -2.5 vs. STEELERS +2.5
Texans -3 vs. PANTHERS +3
Eagles -6.5 vs. COMMANDERS +6.5
COWBOYS -6.5 vs. Rams +6.5
DOLPHINS -9.5 vs. Patriots +9.5
Jets -3 vs. GIANTS +3
|Falcons -3 vs. TITANS +3
Vikings Pick'em vs. PACKERS Pick'em
SEAHAWKS -3.5 vs. Browns +3.5
Chiefs -7.5 vs. BRONCOS +7.5
49ERS -3.5 vs. Bengals +3.5
Ravens -9.5 vs. CARDINALS +9.5
CHARGERS -8.5 vs. Bears +8.5
LIONS -9 vs. Raiders +9
BILLS vs Buccaneers (+8.5)
COLTS vs. Saints (Pick ‘em)
Jaguars vs Steelers (+2.5)
Texans vs. PANTHERS (+3)
Eagles vs. COMMANDERS (+6.5)
COWBOYS vs. Rams (+6.5)
DOLPHINS vs. Patriots (+9.5)
Jets vs. GIANTS (+2.5)
Falcons vs. TITANS (+2.5)
PACKERS vs. Vikings (Pick ‘em)
SEAHAWKS vs. Browns (+3.5)
Chiefs vs. BRONCOS (+7)
49ERS vs. Bengals (+3.5)
Ravens vs. CARDINALS (+8.5)
CHARGERS vs. Bears (+8.5)
LIONS vs. Raiders (+8.5)
BUFFALO (-8.5) vs. Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. WASHINGTON
INDIANAPOLIS (-1.5) vs. New Orleans
Jacksonville (-2.5) vs PITTSBURGH
NY Jets (-2.5) vs NY GIANTS
Houston (-2.5) vs. CAROLINA
MIAMI (-9.5) vs. New England
Atlanta (-2.5) vs. TENNESSEE
Minnesota (-1.5) vs. GREEN BAY
DALLAS (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
SEATTLE (-3.5) vs. Cleveland
Kansas City (-7.5) vs. DENVER
SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati
Baltimore (-8.5) vs. ARIZONA
LA CHARGERS (-8.5) vs. Chicago
DETROIT (-8.5) vs Raiders
* Favorite listed first. HOMETEAM in capitals.
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