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Handicapping the NFL Schedule: Potential Spots for Every Team to Slip Up

by Joey House - 5/22/2024

Handicapping the NFL schedule Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off the NFL Draft, the league unveiled its highly anticipated schedule for the upcoming season, transforming a simple list of dates and matchups into a major event. This strategic move keeps the league in the spotlight during the offseason, showcasing its marketing prowess and deep understanding of fan engagement. By orchestrating prime-time specials and interactive reveals, the NFL ensures maximum excitement and media coverage. This savvy approach not only maintains year-round interest but also optimizes viewership and commercial potential, solidifying the NFL's position as a dominant force in American sports.

The gambling side of the NFL is also becoming almost a year-round event as well. The day after Kansas City wrapped Super Bowl LVIII, futures were posted for the 2024 season. Once the schedules were revealed for all 32 teams, some sportsbooks released spreads and totals for every game of the season. We focus on one potential pitfall game for every team, along with the preseason win totals.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (O/U 10.5): Sept. 12 at Miami (-1.5)

Buffalo opens at home against Arizona but then is forced to travel on a short week to Miami, where they are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS over the past five seasons. As long as Tua stays healthy, Miami should get some revenge against a weakened Bills team.

Miami Dolphins (O/U 9.5): Nov. 28 at Green Bay (-3/48.5)

In the 21st century, the Dolphins have struggled in cold weather games, going 6-12 SU and 8-10 ATS in games where the temperature at kickoff was 32 degrees or below. The visit to the "Frozen Tundra of Lambeau" will be on Thanksgiving night, when the average temp is 28 degrees. Great spot for the under, as the totals have hit in five out of the last six games when Miami played in Green Bay.

New England Patriots (O/U 4.5): Sep. 29 at San Francisco (-11.5/45)

Rookies are the name of the game for New England this year: rookie coach, rookie QB, questionable offensive line. In the past 35 years, the Pats are 3-15 SU but 11-7 ATS when they are double-digit road dogs. However, that period does include two non-covering losses in San Francisco.

New York Jets (O/U 9.5): Dec. 8 at Miami (-2/47.5)

New York's final five games are against teams that finished over .500 last season. Over the last 11 road games in December, the Jets are 2-9 SU and 4-7 ATS.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 11.5): Oct. 21 at Tampa Bay (+5/46)

In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens are 7-2 SU but 2-7 ATS as road favorites against NFC teams. This game is not only against an NFC team with a playoff victory last year but also six days before the Ravens travel to their divisional foe Cleveland.

Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 10.5): Oct. 20 at Cleveland (+1/46.5)

Of the teams that Cincy QB Joe Burrow has faced more than once, only the Chargers (0-2), Ravens (3-4), and Browns (1-5) have a winning record against "Joe Cool". Burrow has lost every game in Cleveland, the most recent being last year's season opener, the only game in which he started and did not throw for 100 or more yards.

Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5): Oct. 13 at Philadelphia (-3/45.5)

Barring any major injuries, I guarantee this spread will be larger. This game marks the end of a 3-game road trip for the Brownies in a place they haven't won in 30 years. In their last 13 visits to the "City of Brotherly Love" dating back to 1961, they are 7-6 SU but a dismal 4-9 ATS.

Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5): Dec. 15 at Philadelphia (-3/45)

Pittsburgh is worse than Cleveland against Philly, losing ten straight times SU and nine straight ATS. In a span of six weeks, the Steelers play five divisional games, and this in-state matchup is the other one.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (O/U 9.5): Oct. 20 at Green Bay (-2.5/48.5)

AFC Rookie-of-the-Year QB C.J. Stroud is the real deal, but this could be a look-ahead game for the Texans, with a divisional game with the Colts the week after. Houston has struggled mightily against Green Bay, going 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in the last 20 years.

Indianapolis Colts (O/U 8.5): Nov. 3 at Minnesota (-1/46.5)

The Colts have a brutal stretch of playing one home game in five weeks. This visit to the Vikings marks the end of that run. Indy is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games on the road against Minnesota.

Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 8.5): Nov. 3 at Philadelphia (-3.5/47)

The Jaguars, with QB Trevor Lawerence at the helm, are 9-16 on the road. It gets worse for this game, as Jacksonville has lost four straight SU/ATS to Philly, dating back to 2010.

Tennessee Titans (O/U 6.5): Dec. 1 at Washington (-1.5/46.5)

When you're underdogs in every game but one like the Titans (they're favored in Week 9 at home against the Patriots), almost any game can be a landmine. Their visit to the nation's capital is the final game of a 4-game stretch that has the Titans on the road in three games. With a divisional matchup against the Jaguars the following week, this is a prime letdown spot.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (O/U 5.5): Oct. 17 at New Orleans (-3.5/42.5)

This is a treacherous spot for Denver for a few reasons. First, they have fared poorly against the NFC South of late, going just 3-7 SU/ATS in their last 10 meetings. Second, it's on a Thursday night, a situation where Denver has lost two straight SU/ATS in the past 3 seasons, scoring a combined 22 points in both contests.

Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 11.5): Dec. 25 at Pittsburgh (+4/43)

The Chiefs have a tough back-end of the schedule, playing three playoff teams from last season over 10 days. The final game of that stretch is the first Christmas Day game at 1:00 P.M. If this line holds true, it will mark the first time since 1970 that Kansas City was the favorite in Pittsburgh.

Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 6.5): Dec. 8 at Tampa Bay (-1.5/44)

Playing their home games in Pacific Standard Time, it makes sense that the Raiders would struggle when playing 1:00 PM games on the East Coast. Since the start of the 2000-01 season, they are 15-50 SU in 1 PM EST games. They are, however, a bit more respectable 28-37 ATS in those contests. Having played at Kansas City the week before, I see this as a letdown spot.

Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 8.5): Nov. 3 at Cleveland (-3/43.5)

In the first eight weeks of the season, the Chargers will have logged over 8,700 miles in five away games. That's the equivalent of a one-way flight from L.A. to Cape Town, South Africa, and will take a toll on most teams, and even more on mediocre squads.

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys (O/U 10.5): Dec. 29 at Philadelphia (-2/47)

Dallas's talent continues its glacial-like decay and some of that weakness is shown in the form of their 4-5 record away from "Jerry's World" last season. December visits to the "City of Brotherly Love" haven't been very loving for the Cowboys, as they are 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games played in Philly during the Yuletide month.

New York Giants (O/U 6.5): Sept. 22 at Cleveland (-6.5/42.5)

It could be a very long season for this storied franchise, as they have a seemingly infinite number of questions and problems to address. The Giants allowed the second-most sacks in NFL history last year with 85. Cleveland's defense is probably foaming at the mouth for this matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 10.5): Nov. 10 at Dallas (-1.5/47.5)

After the Eagles' epic collapse at the end of last season, any game is subject to a disaster. However, Philly hasn't won in Dallas since their Super Bowl-winning season of 2017. That's a string of six consecutive losses, with an average margin of defeat being 13.2 points/game. Even when Dallas's season seems hopeless, they find a way to beat their hated rivals in the big "D".

Washington Commanders (O/U 6.5): Sept. 8 at Tampa Bay (-3.5/41.5)

The Commanders have gone through a complete overhaul, with a new coaching staff and a QB room that was either on different teams or in college last year. While last year's crop of rookie QBs was the exception to the rule, I think if Sam Hartman starts in the season-opener the Bucs will win this by double-digits.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (O/U 8.5): Dec. 8 at San Francisco (-5.5/47.5)

In the middle of playing five divisional games in the last third of the season, the Bears travel to San Francisco, where they are 2-8 SU/ATS in their last 10 visits. Their offense usually doesn't make the trip, as they scored an average of 9.1 points per game.

Detroit Lions (O/U 10.5): Dec. 22 at Chicago (+2/48)

It's a good thing the Lions play in a dome, because they have only won one of their last 12 games when the game-time temperature is freezing or below.

Green Bay Packers (O/U 10.5): Dec. 15 at Seattle (+1/46)

First-year starter Jordan Love impressed the league by guiding the Packers into the playoffs and orchestrating a blowout win in Dallas. Like most young QBs, he struggled a bit on the road, posting a losing record and lower stats across the board. He'll face a historically tough opponent on the road, as Green Bay is only 2-5 SU in their seven trips to Seattle.

Minnesota Vikings (O/U 6.5): Dec. 22 at Seattle (-2/45.5)

Depending on how poorly they have done up to this point, the Vikings may be slowly working rookie JJ McCarthy into the mix. Whoever is taking the snaps for Minnesota will have their work cut out for them when they travel to Seattle right after their division rivals. The Seahawks may petition for a change of divisions the way they dominate the NFC North, as they've won five straight and nine of eleven when they're hosting the Vikings.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons (O/U 9.5): Sept. 16 at Philadelphia (-3.5/48.5)

Twelve-year veteran signal-caller Kirk Cousins brings the stability that Atlanta has been missing at QB since they parted ways with Matt Ryan. To say that the Falcons defense is usually bad is an understatement of epic proportions. They have ranked in the bottom half of points allowed in 9 out of their last 11 seasons. Atlanta has two things going against their visit to Philly: They are 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS over the last ten games and Philly is 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS in their last 11 home games on Monday Night.

Carolina Panthers (O/U 4.5): Oct. 27 at Denver (-2.5/42)

Until the team quit last year after dropping to 1-11, it seemed as though the Panthers were battling and within one score in six of those games. They were shut out their final two games and failed to score a touchdown in four of the last five. Carolina has never won in Denver, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their three visits to the Broncos.

New Orleans Saints (O/U 7.5): Dec. 23 at Green Bay (-5/45)

With Derek Carr at the helm last year, New Orleans tied with Tampa Bay for the best record in the NFC South at 9-8. However, they lost the tie-breaker to the Bucs and haven't made the playoffs since future Hall of Famer QB Drew Brees retired. Like most dome teams, the Saints have a losing record (6-9 SU and 5-9-1 ATS) in games played in freezing weather. Which is exactly what they'll be facing when traveling to Green Bay for a Monday night game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 8.5): Dec. 22 at Dallas (-4.5/46.5)

There must be magical waters in the Bay of Tampa, because Baker Mayfield is the second elderly QB to go down there and make the playoffs in their first year at the helm. Even though they'll contend for the NFC South crown and another playoff birth, it most likely won't be with a win in Dallas, where they are 2-8 SU and 3-4-1 ATS. To make matters worse, during Dak Prescott's reign, Dallas is 15-5 SU and 12-8 ATS in prime-time games such as this Sunday night setting.

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals (O/U 6.5): Oct. 13 at Green Bay (-5/46.5)

In the first 9 games without starting QB Kyler Murray, Arizona was 1-8 and averaged 160 yards passing a game. In the last 8 with their star QB, the Cardinals' record was 3-5 and threw for 212 yards/game. The Cardinals' franchise started in Chicago in 1926. In the eight meetings between these two storied teams, since the Cards left Chicago, Green Bay holds a slight 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS record. This will be the second consecutive road game for Arizona, having played in San Francisco the week prior. This could be a shoot-out between two young gunslingers.

Los Angeles Rams (O/U 8.5): Sept. 8 at Detroit (-3/51)

The Rams' defense took a major hit with the retirement of the future Hall of Famer DT Aaron Donald. Over the course of the season, I think they'll figure it out. However, they open up on the road against the Lions and they're only 3-7 SU but 5-5 ATS over their last ten visits to the Motor City.

San Francisco 49ers (O/U 11.5): Oct. 10 at Seattle (+4/46.5)

The Niners are one of only three teams with a win total set at 11.5 and, barring catastrophic injury should reach it with ease. One tricky spot though is the Week 6 trip to Seattle. Like most teams, San Francisco struggles when they take on the "12th man". Over the last 15 seasons, they are just 4-11 SU and ATS when visiting their division rivals.

Seattle Seahawks (O/U 7.5): Dec. 1 at New York Jets (-4.5)

Seattle will be one of the eight teams with a new head coach calling the shots on the sidelines, with Mike Macdonald replacing the popular Pete Carroll. Nestled right between two games against their divisional foe Arizona is a trip to the Meadowlands against the New York Jets. Going back 40 years, the Seahawks are 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS in their games on the East Coast against the Jets.

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