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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 12 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/18/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 12 opening line report Alvin Kamara New Orleans Saints

Staying ahead of the sportsbooks when making against the spread picks is a difficult task, as the closing lines are often very sharp. However, by securing favorable lines earlier in the week, you can improve your odds of coming out on top. While an extra point or two may not sound meaningful, the impact it can have over the course of an entire NFL season is measurable. We turned a loss into a win in Week 10 by securing the Bears at -3.5 early in the week, watched it close at -4.5, then saw Chicago win by exactly four points. Last week, we didn’t need the closing line value to secure winners, as we went a perfect 3-0 on our opening line picks. The Bears and Panthers both won outright as +3 and +3.5 point favorites, while the Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) completed the sweep on Monday night with a dominant win over Las Vegas. Our tails are high after a perfect week, but before we get into Week 12’s picks, here are the biggest storylines from Week 11. 

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  • Lights out in Washington: The Commanders went 12-5 last year before making a shocking run to the NFC championship game. Flash forward to today, and the season is over for Washington. The league’s oldest roster got bit by the injury bug this year. Jayden Daniels also had an injury-plagued sophomore slump, as Washington lost a sixth straight game to fall to 3-8. On the bright side, their 16-13 overtime loss to the Dolphins snapped a streak of four consecutive losses by 20+ points. Yay. 
  • Playoff Panthers? The Panthers improved to 6-5 with their overtime win over the Falcons, and are now half a game back of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their strong run game condemned the Falcons to their fifth straight loss, as it is now a two-horse race in the NFC South. 
  • Do the Chargers Suck? Los Angeles got blown out by the Jaguars in Week 11, losing 35-6. Justin Herbert struggled to get any time in the pocket, as their offensive line injuries could be their downfall this season. Even a talented QB like Herbert can’t effectively operate with his back on the turf. 
  • Broncos send a message: Denver won their eighth straight game to extend their lead in the AFC West. The Chiefs' defeat leaves them at 5-5 as they are in serious danger of not only losing the division but missing the playoffs for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career. 
  • Eagles find a way: It isn’t always pretty, in fact, it usually isn’t, but the Eagles continue to dominate in the trenches. A few favorable calls went the Eagles’ way, but that doesn’t take away from their defensive masterclass against the red-hot Lions. It was the second straight week the Eagles held their opponents to single digits in primetime, as they have all but won the NFC East with seven weeks to go. 

Now that Week 11 is behind us, it is time to look ahead at the Week 12 opening lines. There are a few games that stick out as having early value, and these picks must be locked in immediately. Even an extra point or two in our favor can be the difference between winning and losing in the long run. Let’s dive in.

Game 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears

Opening Line: Chicago Bears (-3)
This line is baffling. We will be taking the Bears for the third straight week as the oddsmakers continue to disrespect them on the opening lines. Assuming the broken wrist for Aaron Rodgers doesn’t affect his game, I would still have the Bears at larger than a -3 favorite against the Steelers. Chicago is at home, they have won seven of their last eight games, and have been playing complementary football this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, looking like a Super Bowl contender one week before looking completely lifeless the next. Caleb Williams has looked great with Ben Johnson’s scheming, and the Bears now come up against a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in the league in pass yards allowed per game. Their defense has come to life in recent weeks, but a road game in Chicago is a much tougher task. Pittsburgh has become overvalued after playing five of its last seven at home, while it lost both of the road contests in that span. The Bears are the better team on both sides of the ball; they are riding high as they collect win after win, and currently sit on top of the NFC North. This spread is right at the key number of -3, and this is all assuming Aaron Rodgers plays for Pittsburgh. If he does play, this spread won’t dip any lower, but if he is ruled out, there is massive upside in locking this in now. This is a crucial number to secure, and we will happily keep tailing the Bears until they show signs of slowing down. 

Pick: Chicago Bears (-3)

Game 2: Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans 

Opening Line: Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)
The Seahawks had their momentum halted by the Los Angeles Rams last week, but are still massive favorites against the Titans in Week 12. While every loss hurts, the Seahawks actually played solid football outside of a few mistakes. They outgained the Rams 414-249 overall, but four interceptions from Sam Darnold, coupled with the fact they had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, led to their defeat. They will be able to get back on track against the Titans, but covering this massive spread is a different story. Seattle has been dominant on both sides of the ball, but this is a huge number to cover, especially on the road. Tennessee may be 1-9, but they have stayed within two touchdowns in 6/10 games this year. Cam Ward has looked better in recent weeks, while the Titans' defense has been respectable. The Titans have looked worse than they are on offense thanks to a league-low 29% conversion rate on third down, and if they can bump that number up a few points, they will be in much better shape. An outright Titans upset would be shocking, but more often than not, they will do enough to stay within two scores. 

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+13.5)

Game 3: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 

Opening Line: New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

The Saints are favorites for the second time this season after beating the Giants as slight home favorites in Week 5. New Orleans is bringing some momentum into this game after beating the Panthers in Week 10, and has extra rest since coming off their bye week. Meanwhile, the Falcons have lost five games in a row, they just lost Michael Penix Jr. to injury, and their season is all but over. Both of these sides have little to play for, but I still struggle to get behind the Saints in the favorite role. Kirk Cousins looked terrible in his only start this season, but he still has some gas left in the tank before he hangs up his cleats. The Falcons have a very strong pass defense, while the Saints' run game has been struggling as Alvin Kamara declines. New Orleans hasn’t been able to move the ball up and down the field with Tyler Shough at quarterback, and has needed massive defensive performances to pick up their only two wins this season. The Falcons are nearly as bad as the Saints, but they aren’t quite there yet. Atlanta in the underdog role against New Orleans is not something we expected to see this season, and it is absolutely a line we will scoop up. I expect this to flip before kickoff when people come to their senses, and even a short spread in our favor could come into play in a matchup between two bad, sloppy teams. 

Pick: Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Season Record: 17-16

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