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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 11/25/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 13 opening line report Geno Smith Las Vegas Raiders

It is crunch time in the NFL, and there are just six weeks left in the regular season. All 32 teams are in action this week, which gives us a wide variety of options for our opening line picks. One of the best ways to profit in the NFL is by securing closing line value, and locking in a favorable line at this stage of the week can pay dividends. An extra point in our favor can go a long way towards staying in the green and can be the difference between winning and losing over the course of the season. Last week, we went 2-0-1 against the spread for our second straight undefeated week. The Chicago Bears pushed their -3 spread against the Steelers after they gave up a late touchdown to cost us the outright cover. The Tennessee Titans battled back as +13.5 point underdogs to lose 30-24, while the Falcons won outright against the Saints as slight underdogs themselves. This brings our season record to 19-16-1, but it is not time to celebrate just yet. Before we get into the Week 13 opening line picks, here are the biggest storylines from a season-defining Week 12. 

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  • No Stroud? No problem: The Texans sacked Josh Allen 8 times en route to their Thursday night win, strengthening their AFC Wild Card hopes at the expense of the Bills. It’s not yet time to panic in Buffalo, but a competitive AFC, coupled with the Patriots’ nine-game win streak, means a playoff spot is no longer secured. 
  • Chiefs stay alive: The Colts gave the Chiefs a scare, but the reigning AFC champions pulled out the overtime victory to move to 6-5 on the season. Indianapolis had their credentials tested, and while they fell short, they will feel confident about their playoff chances. 
  • Giants lose, but they won? New York got officially eliminated from playoff contention with their stunning collapse against the Lions. Blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead will sting, but they improved their draft position with the defeat. 
  • Shedeur show in Cleveland: Shedeur Sanders became the first Browns quarterback to win their debut since 1995 with his win over the Raiders. Dillon Gabriel is healthy again, but Sanders will retain his starting job after his excellent showing. 
  • Eagles collapse: Dallas kept their playoff hopes alive with their 21-0 comeback win over the Eagles. Philadelphia was just looking like their usual self again before their inability to move the football gave the Cowboys too many chances to score. 
  • Rams Super Bowl + Stafford MVP: The Rams are the outright favorites to win the Super Bowl, while Matthew Stafford has emerged as the MVP favorite. Their 34-7 demolition of the Buccaneers on primetime certainly helped sway the public’s perception, but the numbers speak for themselves. Stafford has thrown 30 touchdowns and just two interceptions this season, including 25 straight touchdown passes since his last pick. 

Now that Week 12 is firmly in the rearview mirror, it is time to get into the Week 13 picks. Make sure you lock these in immediately, as we have seen how crucial every point, or even half-point of value can be. 

Game 1: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles 

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-7)

The Philadelphia Eagles suffered a devastating defeat on Sunday against the Cowboys, and while they should be favored to get back on track, this spread is far too wide. We will be tailing the Bears for the third consecutive week, as they continue to string wins together. Chicago has won eight of their last nine games outright, and there is no reason to expect a dropoff in performance against the Eagles. Philadelphia has really struggled to get its run game going this year, and its offense as a whole has been very flat. They are bottom ten in both passing and rushing yards, and if it weren’t for the Tush Push, who knows what their record would be at this stage of the season? Jalen Hurts looks as lost as ever, while Saquon Barkley is a shadow of his former self this season. Their strong defense has allowed the Eagles to stay on top of the NFC East, but expecting enough points from this offense against a dangerous Bears side is too much to ask. Chicago has scored 16+ points in every game this season, and has scored 24+ points in 8/11 games. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson have developed an incredible relationship, and I don’t see why the Bears won’t score at least 20+ again on Friday. Will the Eagles' offense score the 27+ needed to get the cover? I doubt it.

Pick: Chicago Bears (+7)

Game 2: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

The Texans will have a bit of extra rest since they took down the Bills on Thursday last week, but that doesn’t mean they should be expected to go toe-to-toe with the high-flying Colts. Indianapolis has an incredibly consistent run game, and they will be able to protect Daniel Jones from the Texans' dangerous pass rush. Houston has the best defense in the league for a reason, but they are mainly effective against pass-heavy teams. Equipped with MVP candidate Jonathan Taylor, the Colts will look to run the ball early and often. Question marks around CJ Stroud’s availability persist, and it is looking increasingly likely that the former Rookie of the Year will be unable to play for a third consecutive week. Davis Mills was serviceable against the Bills, but he still left the door open for Buffalo to take advantage. I expect the Colts to do exactly that in a crucial divisional affair, and for Indianapolis to win by at least a touchdown and cover this spread in the process. 

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

Game 3: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
This spread is a few points too wide for a divisional affair. Las Vegas handed Shedeur Sanders his first career win last week, but they actually played decent football for most of that contest. The yards on the ground and through the air were even, and the Raiders just got unlucky with their gutsy 4th down conversions. This has inflated the spread far higher than it should be, as I struggle to see the Chargers move the ball up and down the field. Justin Herbert lost both his starting tackles to season-ending injuries, and a hungry Raider pass rush will feast in Los Angeles. Herbert found himself on his back and scrambling around the pocket early and often over the last few weeks, and the Raiders' pass rush is as tough as they come. We can’t trust Geno Smith to put up a bunch of points in the red zone, but a consistent Raiders offense will be able to move the ball between the 20s and chip in a few field goals. Chip Kelly has been fired as the offensive coordinator, which could also give a little lift to their skill position players. With a thick spread, we have no choice but to take the points. 

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5)

Season Record: 19-16-1

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