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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 14 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 12/2/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 14 opening line report Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals

The final five weeks of the NFL season are upon us, and it is now or never for the Super Bowl hopefuls to make their late-season playoff push. Parity has been a theme in the NFL this season, as the usual top dogs have struggled, making way for new contenders to emerge. 

One of the most effective ways to profit in the NFL is by securing a favorable line for your against-the-spread picks. By locking in our picks early in the week, we can scoop up better prices than may be available at kickoff. Even an extra point in our favor goes a long way over the course of an entire NFL season. Last week, we went 1-2. Chicago (+7) made it look easy with an outright win over Philadelphia, but the Colts and Raiders both lost and failed to cover the spread in their respective divisional matchups. Before we dive into the picks for Week 14, here are the biggest takeaways from a season-defining Week 13 slate. 

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  • Thanksgiving Fireworks: On paper, the three Thanksgiving games looked fantastic, and they lived up to expectations. Green Bay, Dallas, and Cincinnati all picked up crucial wins, while the Lions, Ravens, and Chiefs all lost. It is looking increasingly likely that at least one of the Ravens and Chiefs will miss the postseason, which is quite a shocking proposition to consider. 
  • Burrow to the rescue? The Bengals have developed a nasty habit of getting off to slow starts, only to make a miraculous play that allows them to sneak into a playoff spot. A 4-8 record is far from ideal, but with another game against the Ravens in two weeks, they can still make the playoffs if they win out. Burrow made his impact instantly felt last week and will do so again down the stretch. 
  • Problems in Philly: The reigning Super Bowl champions got booed off the field on Friday, faltering on both sides of the ball. Their defense has fallen apart, their offense has always been inconsistent, and a garbage-time touchdown drive inflated Jalen Hurts’ stats from terrible to mediocre. With Dallas hot on their heels, the Eagles need to start winning games. And fast. 
  • What are the Colts? Indianapolis was seen as underrated after an 8-2 start, but back-to-back losses coupled with a broken fibula for Daniel Jones have dented their aspirations. Can their run game and physical play bail them out? It seems unlikely without a viable QB. 
  • Rams still on top: Even with a loss to the Panthers, it is clear the Rams are still the team to beat in the NFC. Stafford threw more interceptions against the Panthers than in his last ten starts combined, and that isn’t a trend that will persist. 
  • Broncos find a way: It hasn’t been pretty, but you don’t win 9 in a row like Denver has due to sheer luck. The Broncos stumbled, looked terrible, and needed overtime to beat the free-falling Commanders, but they found a way to get the job done. That kind of knack for winning close games will come in handy during an inevitable playoff berth. 

Now that Week 13 is behind us, it is time to jump into Week 14. The bye weeks wrap up this week, as teams buckle up for the final month of the year. A few lines stick out as odd at this stage of the week, so let’s dive right in. 

Game 1: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets 

Opening Line: Miami Dolphins (-3)

The Dolphins have won three straight games, but they were all at home, with the last two coming against the lowly Saints and Commanders. While the Jets' victory over the Falcons wasn’t any more impressive, this is a key number for a home underdog. In divisional matchups, home underdogs have covered in more than 60% of matchups over the last 15 years. This will be a tightly contested game, with plenty of pride on the line. What has separated New York, and why we are taking the points, is their ability to run the football. The Jets have the 7th most rushing yards this season, and considering they were often trailing with a negative game script, that is even more impressive. Alternatively, the Dolphins are 29th in terms of run defense, and if they fall behind early, this will be an impossible spread to cover. It is hard to have too much faith in the Jets at any price, but it is even harder to tail the Dolphins in the road favorite role. The Dolphins are 1-4 on the road this season compared to 4-3 at home, and we will happily take the free field goal with the Jets.

Pick: New York Jets (+3)

Game 2: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Opening Line: Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

This is the fifth straight week we will be tailing the Bears, and after four straight covers on the opening lines, there is no reason to change this strategy now. Chicago has won nine of their last ten games outright, and this is a massive game at the top of the NFC North. The Bears have gotten their run game going, Caleb Williams is playing consistent football, and this is a great time to sell high on the Packers. The oddsmakers are still hesitant to give the Bears the respect they deserve on a weekly basis, but it is nice to see they have finally dropped the division leaders' Super Bowl odds down to +3000. Regardless, this is another matchup where the Bears should not only cover but can pull off the outright upset. The Packers have a well-rounded defense that will frustrate Chicago, but they don’t have an offense capable of playing complementary football. We saw Jordan Love thrive on Thanksgiving, but he has been incredibly inconsistent this year. One week, he is an MVP favorite, and the next, he is struggling to find the end zone. Chicago has been rock solid after their 0-2 start, and there is no reason they should be getting a boatload of points in this matchup. Maybe they pull off the upset, maybe they fall short. Either way, a +6.5 point spread makes this an easy pick. 

Pick: Chicago Bears (+6.5)

Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers

Opening Line: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
I read this one multiple times, and I am now certain that the Eagles are indeed road favorites by a full three points against the surging Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert had hand surgery yesterday, which certainly plays a role, but he is expected to be good to go with no limitations for this Monday Night affair. The fact that the Chargers are not only underdogs, but underdogs by the most common margin of victory in the NFL is truly baffling. This is a team that has won four of its last five games, all by at least a touchdown, and has legitimate playoff hopes. The Eagles are the reigning champions, but this is a fragile squad that cannot be trusted with odds like these. We just saw the Chargers steamroll the Raiders on the ground, while the Bears exposed the Eagles' vulnerable run defense last week. If Los Angeles can get the ground game going to protect Herbert behind a struggling offensive line, this will be their game to lose. This is an incredibly key number to grab before it goes to +2.5, making this the top opening line pick of the week.  

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers (+3)

Season Record: 20-18-1

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