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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 5 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 9/30/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 5 opening line report Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs

If you make NFL picks on the closing lines, it is very difficult to consistently stay ahead of the bookies over the course of the NFL season. The closing lines are very sharp, but the same can’t be said for the opening lines. Locking in a favorable line early in the week can go a long way in the quest to stay profitable, and Doc’s Sports' opening lines report is the place to find your weekly picks. Last week, we went 1-2. The Los Angeles Chargers were upset by the New York Giants, while late injuries to Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels brought Washington from a -2.5 point favorite to a +1.5 point underdog. Our lone victory was with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won outright against the 49ers as 3.5-point underdogs. Before jumping into Week 5, here are the biggest storylines from Week 4.

  • Dream Debut for Dart: Jaxson Dart followed up his pregame trash talk with a stunning 21-18 upset win over the Los Angeles Chargers. A season-ending injury to Malik Nabers will dampen the mood, but Dart appears to have found his home in New York. 
  • Texans are back? A win over the Tennessee Titans was necessary to keep the Texans' playoff hopes alive. Houston got an emphatic 26-0 victory, as CJ Stroud’s offensive line finally came to play. 
  • Oh Adonai… Colts receiver Adonai Mitchell cost his team a 4-0 start with a pair of costly mistakes. An egregious holding penalty to wipe away a 52-yard score can be forgiven, but an uncontested fumble on the goal line cannot. The Colts drop their first game of the season as a result. 
  • The Chiefs are back: Lamar Jackson’s injury will take center stage, but make no mistake, the Chiefs had already sealed victory before he went down. Their defense stepped up, their offense exploded, and Kansas City is a contender once again. 
  • Overtime Drama: The NFL got its first tie of the season when Dallas and Green Bay played out a 40-40 OT thriller. Prescott and Love combined for 6 touchdowns through the air with one on the ground for Dak, and no interceptions. 
  • Dolphins win, at what cost: Miami picked up its first win of the season, but they lost Tyreek Hill for at least the rest of the season in the process. Hill’s career could be over, and the Dolphins have all the more reason to blow up the team heading into the trade deadline. 

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Now that Week 4 is behind us, it is time to get into your Week 5 opening line picks. Make sure you lock these in immediately, as there is no guarantee these odds will be available when kickoff rolls around. 

Game 1: Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets 

Opening Line: Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have proven that their offense cannot be contained. They put up 40 points on a very strong Packers defense last week and have shown no signs of slowing down. Dak Prescott is playing some of the best football of his career, and even without CeeDee Lamb, they are firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the story couldn’t be more different in New York. Justin Fields can do a good job running and scrambling, but his downfield accuracy isn’t sufficient to challenge the Dallas secondary. The Cowboys' defense gets heavily criticized, but the one thing they can do is stop mobile quarterbacks. The Jets' defense is nowhere near the level it once was, and we can’t trust Fields and company to replicate the scoring that will inevitably come from the Cowboys. This is a soft line for the road team, and one that I expect to jump over a field goal before kickoff. 

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Game 2: Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts 

Opening Line: Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

The Colts had their perfect season ruined by the Rams last week, but they will get right back on track when Las Vegas comes to town. Indianapolis could have easily beaten the Rams to go to 4-0 if it weren’t for a few costly mistakes. They were the better football team for the majority of that contest, and the Raiders represent a significant step down in competition. Las Vegas is a dumpster fire right now, as Geno Smith was not the messiah their fanbase expected. A Week 1 victory over the Patriots has long been forgotten, as the Raiders have now dropped three straight games. Smith cannot be trusted with deep balls down the field, as he already has a league-leading seven interceptions this season. On the ground, Ashton Jeanty has made an impact, but an astonishing 101% of his rushing yards have come after contact. Yes, that is a real statistic. Their offensive line is getting no forward push, and the Raiders' offense is as flat as it can be heading into this matchup. Daniel ‘Indiana’ Jones is playing the best football of his career, and the Raiders will be unable to catch up. Once again, this is a line that could swell before kickoff, and it is time to buy into the Colts' hype as we enter the fifth week of the season. 

Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)

Game 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks 

Opening Line: Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

Both of these teams are 3-1 heading into Week 4, and a victory here would significantly help their respective playoff aspirations. While I agree the Seahawks deserve to be home favorites given how they have played this season, a full field goal with the hook is a spread that is far too wide. Tampa Bay is a physical football team that rarely gets blown out, and their only defeat this year was against the 4-0 reigning champions, the Philadelphia Eagles. Baker Mayfield has been playing consistent, responsible football, and the Seattle defense will be no match for Tampa Bay. The return of Wirfs at offensive tackle and Chris Godwin to replace the injured Mike Evans has only made this team better heading into this week. The Seahawks have been putting up points themselves, but a large portion of their final scores have come from plays on special teams and the defensive side of the ball. It is hard to fully trust Sam Darnold to get going without a run game, which is Tampa Bay’s best defensive aspect. When the Buccaneers shut down the run and Darnold inevitably makes a mistake, this game will stay close right down to the wire. The fact that we are getting a full field goal with the hook makes this a pick that has plenty of upside in locking in early. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

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