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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 6 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/7/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 6 Opening Line report Bo Nix Denver Broncos

One of the most effective ways to stay ahead in the NFL is to take advantage of the opening lines. The spreads and totals minutes before kickoff are often very sharp, but the sportsbooks can occasionally give favorable lines early in the week. The difference between winning and losing in the long run can come down to securing an extra point in your favor. Last week, we went a perfect 3-0 on our opening line picks. The Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts made it look easy against the Jets and the Raiders, respectively. Later in the afternoon, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won outright as +3.5 point underdogs. Before we get into the Week 6 opening line picks, here are the biggest storylines from an eventful Week 5. 

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  • The 49ers aren’t dead yet: The 49ers went into their Thursday Night Football matchup against the Rams with a long list of injuries and minimal hope of an upset. Mac Jones then went on to play one of the best games of his career, while the 49ers got the crucial stops they needed. It hasn’t been pretty, but the 49ers sit on top of the NFC West at 4-1. 
  • The Vikings are back on track: Minnesota improved to 5-0 in London with its 21-17 victory over the Cleveland Browns. A win over Cleveland has never meant more to the Vikings, and they are back in the division race with their win. 
  • The Colts are back on track: It is easy to overlook Indianapolis as a fluke after their first few wins, but it is getting harder to do so by the week. They are 4-1 with 3 wins by 20+ points, including a 40-6 demolition in Week 5. It’s time to start believing in Daniel Jones and the Colts.
  • Cry Eagles Cry: The Eagles blew a 14-point lead to the Denver Broncos as they took their first loss of the season. There is a lot of finger-pointing going on in Philadelphia, and this team is no longer looking like the reigning Super Bowl champions. 
  • Oh no, Demercado: The Cardinals were well on their way to beating the Titans before Demercado had an uncontested fumble at the goal line. This is the uncontested third dropped ball this season, and this one proved very costly as the Cardinals blew a late lead. 
  • The 20-0 Dolphins are safe: The Bills were the only undefeated team in the NFL for approximately 7 hours before losing to the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. Three turnovers cost Buffalo, but it’s not time to panic as the Bills have a comfortable lead in the division and an easy upcoming schedule. 
  • Panic button in Kansas City: The Chiefs are 2-3 to start the season, and things aren’t getting any easier. Kansas City blew an early two-touchdown lead but still appeared destined to pull off a valuable road win. A 99-yard pick-six courtesy of Patrick Mahomes changed that before Trevor Lawrence scored the winning touchdown with 23 seconds left. Kansas City has tough games against the Lions, Raiders, Commanders, Bills, and Broncos upcoming. If they can’t go 3-2 or better, their season may be over early. 

With Week 5 now behind us, it is time to jump straight into your Week 6 picks. Be sure to lock these in immediately, as there are no guarantees that these lines and odds will be available when kickoff rolls around on Sunday. We went a perfect 3-0 last week, and will be looking for more of the same here.

Game 1: Denver Broncos vs New York Jets 

Opening Line: Denver Broncos (-7)

The Broncos and Jets face off in London this week, and the Broncos will be able to easily swat aside New York. The Jets are the only winless team this season at 0-5, and their first win will not be in this matchup. Denver has a strong defense that will be able to shut down Justin Fields and New York. Fields has looked shaky in the pocket this season, and he can’t rely on his legs to unlock a defense like the Broncos. On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets have been even worse. They have allowed the second-most points this season, and don’t resemble the strong unit they had during the Aaron Rodgers era. Denver is better on both sides of the ball and will be feeling good after their comeback win against the Eagles. It is hard to imagine the Jets putting up much of a fight against a defense that ranks in the top 10 in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed. Bo Nix has looked better every time he’s taken the field this season, and a statement win for Denver will allow them to not only win but cover this spread. A flat -7 vs a -7.5 could save us a push if the Broncos win by exactly a touchdown, and I don’t imagine this line shifting toward the 0-5 Jets before kickoff. 

Pick: Denver Broncos (-7) 

Game 2: Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders
Opening Line: Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)

This will not be America’s Game of the Week, but there is still money to be made on this matchup. Neither of these teams will be feeling very confident at 1-4, but only one of these sides is bringing a four-game losing streak into this game. Las Vegas has dropped four straight, with three of those losses coming by multiple possessions. Geno Smith looks truly lost in the pocket, and while Jakobi Meyers is reliable, a weak offensive line leaves them handcuffed. Their defense hasn’t been generating turnovers either, and it is hard to justify a thick spread in favor of the Raiders. Tennessee was quite fortunate to win last week, but they still have momentum heading into this one. A tough schedule has made the Titans look worse than they are, and Cam Ward has started to settle into his new role in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Titans win this game outright, but either way, getting more than a field goal in a low-scoring game like this is the way to go. 

Pick: Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Game 3: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders 

Opening Line: Washington Commanders (-4.5)

The Commanders are pulling out their black jerseys just once this season in an attempt to replicate their famous Hail Mary over Chicago last season. Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams face off for the second time in their respective NFL careers. Daniels is healthy and ready to go, and we saw last week what his return does for this offense. Not only do his accurate throws down the field create big catches, but it also opens up the run game for the emerging Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The Commanders lead the league in rushing yards, while the Bears have the second-worst run defense in the NFL. That extreme mismatch will allow the Commanders to possess the football for long stretches and cap off those drives with short touchdowns. The Washington defense has flaws of its own, but it is hard to overlook a motivated Daniels at home in this matchup. The spread is short enough to warrant laying the points, especially before public money could drive this spread higher before Monday Night. 

Pick: Washington Commanders (-4.5)

Season Record: 7-8

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