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NFL Betting Predictions: Week 8 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/21/2025

NFL betting predictions Week 8 opening line report Baker Mayfield

It is never easy to stay ahead of the sportsbooks with standard spread picks, and locking in favorable lines is one of the few reliable strategies to do so. The closing lines right before kickoff are often very sharp, but the oddsmakers can occasionally make mistakes on their opening lines. While it may not seem like much, an extra point in your favor can be the difference between winning and losing over the course of the season. Last week, we went 1-2 on our picks. The Panthers made it look easy over the Jets, while the Chargers fell short against the Colts. It all came down to Sunday night, and even though we secured the Falcons at +3 (it closed at +1), they ended up losing by 10 points. Before we get into Week 8, here are the biggest storylines from around the league in Week 7. 

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  • Steelers prevail in Icy-Hot Bowl: Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco went toe-to-toe on Thursday, with Cincinnati winning a 33-31 thriller. While the league continues to get younger, the duo proved that 40-year-olds can still be effective at the quarterback position. 
  • Patriots on top: Step aside Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, Drake Maye may turn out to be the best quarterback from the 2024 NFL Draft. His 116.4 QBR is the highest among quarterbacks with at least five starts this season, and the Patriots now sit on top of the AFC East with a 5-2 record. 
  • Blow it Up in Miami: Losing by 25 points to the Cleveland Browns is unacceptable. Fingers will be pointed at Mike McDaniel, but poor play on both sides of the ball from the Miami stars is also to blame. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown a league-leading 10 interceptions and is 27th in the league in QBR this season. 
  • Chiefs are Super Bowl Favorites: An 0-2 start for Kansas City feels like a distant memory, as the Chiefs are outright Super Bowl favorites nearly halfway through the year. Their primary contenders have all fallen off, while Kansas City is seemingly getting better by the week. Not only have they won four of the last five, but all those wins came by 13+ points. 
  • Denver Delight: The Giants took a 19-0 lead into the fourth quarter before the Broncos exploded for 33 points in the final frame. Bo Nix tossed two touchdowns while running in two more, becoming the first player in NFL history to do so in the fourth quarter. Denver delivered a dagger to the heart of the Giant fanbase, pulling off an all-time classic 33-32 win. 
  • There’s always next year: The Commanders came into the year full of confidence after reaching the NFC championship game for the first time in three decades. However, a 3-4 start paired with a long list of injuries has transformed the feeling around the franchise. Jayden Daniels pulled his hamstring in the Commanders' 44-22 defeat against the Cowboys, while their top three receivers all remain out. 

Week 7 is in the rearview mirror, and there is a trio of games that must be locked in for Week 8. Make sure you make your bets now rather than later in the week, as there is no guarantee these lines will be available when kickoff rolls around on Sunday. 

Game 1: Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers

Opening Line: Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
The Bills are coming off their bye week after losing back-to-back games, and suddenly find themselves trailing the Patriots in the AFC East. They will have had an extra week of rest heading into this one, and this will feel like a must-win after they started 4-0 on the season. While Buffalo has the talent needed to win this game, covering a thick spread on the road is a different story. The Bills will always be Super Bowl favorites with a healthy Josh Allen in the pocket, but the rest of this roster isn’t very impressive. The Bills' run game has been ineffective, and their defense has too many holes to be trusted. They have impressive pieces scattered around their roster, but Buffalo doesn’t have the depth needed to run away on the scoreboard. On the other hand, the Panthers' defense continues to bend but not break, while their offense has been steadily improving over the last few years. Three straight wins over the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Jets are certainly impressive, and this represents a great step up in competition to see how good this team really is. Bryce Young is expected to miss this matchup, but backup Andy Dalton is not a huge downgrade at quarterback. The Panthers have been able to lean on a consistent run game behind their suddenly strong offensive line, and Dalton will still be serviceable at signal-caller. Maybe the Panthers pull off the upset in this one, or maybe the Bills get back on track. Either way, this line shouldn’t be more than a touchdown, and this is a crucial number to lock in with the Panthers. 

Pick: Carolina Panthers (+7.5)

Game 2: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Opening Line: New England Patriots (-7)

The Patriots have been playing excellent football this year and find themselves on top of the AFC East. While we will be fading the Bills, this is an AFC East favorite we can get behind. Drake Maye has the best passer rating among quarterbacks with at least five starts this season, as his poise in the pocket has allowed the wins to pile up. They have strung together four consecutive victories, including a sweat-free win and cover over the Titans last week. New England proved that they know how to beat up on bad teams, and this spread is a tad too short considering the gap in class between these two sides. 

Cleveland got a feel-good win over the Dolphins last week, and Dillon Gabriel looked good against a weak defense like Miami’s. The only problem with that win is that Miami is one of the worst teams in the league, and the Browns are now overvalued in this matchup. Their defense is no longer the dominant unit it once was, and Gabriel still has a lot to prove before he can be trusted against one of the league’s top teams. I expect this spread to climb up to -8 or -9 before kickoff, which would hold much less value than the flat -7 line available now. New England is the real deal this year and will win this one by double digits. 

Pick: New England Patriots (-7)

Game 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)

Spencer Rattler has been playing solid football for New Orleans, but he’s not suddenly the franchise quarterback. The Buccaneers defense will eat him alive after a poor showing against the Lions, and I expect Tampa Bay to take out its frustration on a helpless Saints side. This pick breaks a few of my rules, as taking road favorites in divisional matchups is something I usually stay away from. However, with a short spread, that inaccuracy reflects the difference between these two sides, so we will happily lay the points with the Bucs. Baker Mayfield’s MVP odds took a hit after a poor Monday night showing on primetime, but that doesn’t mean all hope is lost for the Buccaneers. Detroit came out to play on Monday night, and the Saints will give Mayfield a chance to get back on track. New Orleans struggles to stop the run and also run the ball themselves, and they won’t convert many third downs when they find themselves behind the sticks. Rattler will continue to play good football, but Mayfield has been playing great football. Injuries to the Tampa Bay offense have kept this line low, but they still have a small edge on both sides of the ball. A road favorite in a divisional matchup is a daunting pick, but in this specific matchup, the Bucs are the way to go. 

Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)

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