2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2025

Tampa Bay Buccaneers season win total picks Baker Mayfield

The scary thing about the 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 10-7 and won their fourth straight NFC South title, is that they were actually a lot better than their record.

Tampa, which easily beat its preseason Las Vegas win total (7.5), underachieved its Pythagorean win expectation by 1.1 games. They finished with a negative turnover differential (-5) and they were just 1-6 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime.

They did all that – and they still beat their win total by three games!

In the 2023 season the Bucs went 9-7 and beat Vegas by four games, meaning that they have sailed over their win total by seven full games the last two years. In fact, Tampa Bay has gone 5-1 against its Las Vegas win total over the last six seasons and in 2025 they will try to extend a franchise-best streak of five straight postseason appearances.

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 OFFENSE

Tampa Bay’s success last year came on the back of one of the league’s most efficient offenses. The Bucs were No. 3 in total offense and No. 4 in points scored. But they were also No. 1 on third down, converting 51.1 percent, and No. 4 in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on 66.7 percent of their trips.

Baker Mayfield has solidified himself as a Top 10 quarterback and franchise leader. He has posted back-to-back seasons of 4,000 or more passing yards and has contributed 73 touchdowns over the last two years combined.

It helps when you have a receiving corps of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan. The Bucs added Ohio State rookie Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the draft to further supercharge one of the league’s top passing games.

It is concerning that All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs is still recovering from a knee injury and will miss (at least) the first four games of the season. This is a mediocre offensive line that overperformed last season while going from No. 32 in the NFL in rushing in 2023 to No. 4 last year.

Also concerning is the fact that Tampa will have its third different offensive coordinator in three years after Liam Coen (Jacksonville) and Dave Canales (Carolina) left for head coaching jobs each of the past two seasons. Josh Grizzard is the new OC and he has never held that position at any level.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 DEFENSE

The Bucs fielded their worst scoring defense of the past five years last season, finishing No. 16 in points allowed one season after coming in at No. 7. Tampa also produced its second-worst total defense of the last six years, despite improving from No. 23 in 2023 to No. 18 last year.

The key to Tampa’s defensive success last year was their No. 9 red zone defense. Combined with their offensive success inside the 20, the Bucs joined just three other teams (Denver, Chicago and Philadelphia) with a Top 10 red zone unit on both offense and defense.

It’s basically the same unit this year, with just one new starter. Vita Vea anchors the line and LaVonte David continues to quietly rack up stats in his exceptional career.

The Bucs need better work from the secondary. Tampa had the league’s No. 29 passing defense last season and both Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum were erratic at the corner position. Tampa was No. 7 in the league in sacks – and added Hassan Reddick after his bizarre 2024 – so the pass defense breakdowns were on the secondary, not the pass rush.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 7 @ Atlanta Falcons 1:00 p.m.

Mon, Sep 15 @ Houston Texans 7:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 21 vs New York Jets 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Sep 28 vs Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Oct 5 @ Seattle Seahawks 4:05 p.m.

Sun, Oct 12 vs San Francisco 49ers 1:00 p.m.

Mon, Oct 20 @ Detroit Lions 7:00 p.m.

Sun, Oct 26 @ New Orleans Saints 4:05 p.m.

Week 9 BYE

Sun, Nov 9 vs New England Patriots 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 16 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Nov 23 @ Los Angeles Rams (SNF) 8:20 p.m.

Sun, Nov 30 vs Arizona Cardinals 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 7 vs New Orleans Saints 1:00 p.m.

Thu, Dec 11 vs Atlanta Falcons (TNF) 8:15 p.m.

Sun, Dec 21 @ Carolina Panthers 1:00 p.m.

Sun, Dec 28 @ Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m.

Week 18 vs Carolina Panthers TBD

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Tampa Bay’s fourth straight first place finish in the NFC South earned them another first place schedule for 2025. That means games against fellow division winners Philadelphia and Detroit as well as road trips to Buffalo and the Rams. The Bucs have to play seven of their first 11 games on the road and have four sets of back-to-back road games.

The Bucs benefit from playing in the league’s second-worst division, though. New Orleans looks like it is already in the tank and Carolina has been among the league’s worst teams for the better part of the last six years. Add in the mess that is Atlanta and Tampa has a clear path to a fifth straight division title and a return trip to the playoffs.

Even if they were to sweep their divisional opponents (which is unlikely) and take care of the feeble Jets and Patriots the Bucs would still be two wins short of 10. Tampa Bay has been an excellent underdog the past two seasons, going 13-6 against the spread with eight outright upsets. But their road schedule is savage, and I don’t see them beating Detroit and Philly again this season.

I don’t like betting against Baker Mayfield. And betting on the Bucs ‘under’ suggests that someone in the South with step up to challenge them – which I don’t see happening. Regardless, the odds are that if this group wins a fifth straight crown it will come with nine wins.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Win Total Picks

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