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2025 Washington Commanders Season Win Total Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2025

Washington Commanders season win total picks Jayden Daniels

Are the 2025 Washington Commanders just the 2024 Houston Texans all over again?

The similarities are striking.

In 2022, Houston won just three games and were a league pushover. They drafted a rookie quarterback No. 2 overall and that rookie took the league by storm, leading the 2023 Texans to 10 wins and a surprise playoff appearance. Then, prior to the 2024 season, Houston spent the offseason loading up on big-name veterans through trades and free agency in an attempt to build on their breakthrough season.

Despite a ton of preseason buzz, it didn’t really work out for Houston last year. The Texans did make it back to the playoffs (thanks to a feeble division) but they went ‘under’ their Las Vegas season win total and failed to make clear progress, again winning 10 games.

In 2023 Washington won just four games. Then they drafted a rookie quarterback No. 2 overall and that rookie took the league by storm, leading the 2024 Commanders to 12 wins and a surprise playoff appearance.

Guess what happened next?

Prior to the upcoming 2025 season, Washington spent the offseason loading up on big-name veterans through trades and free agency in an attempt to build on their breakthrough season. Will it work out?

Or will Washington suffer the same fate as last year’s Texans, failing to live up to their gaudy preseason expectations?

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WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 2025 OFFENSE

Washington’s 13.0 offensive yards per point was No. 4 in the NFL last season, trailing only Buffalo, Detroit and Philadelphia. The Commanders ran the most plays per game (66) and were the beneficiaries of a record-breaking fourth down offense, converting 20 of 23 (87%) attempts.

Jayden Daniels was a revelation and he is the real deal. Daniels was Washington’s leading rusher (which is a bit of a problem) and contributed 4,459 total yards and 31 touchdowns in the air and on the ground.

Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil were two of the big-name additions on the offensive side of the ball. Washington also used its top draft pick on tackle Josh Conerly and nabbed veteran Michael Gallup in free agency.

Kliff Kingsbury obviously picked up some new tricks while working as an offensive coordinator at USC under Lincoln Riley. Kingsbury’s offenses in Arizona, when he was a head coach, could best be described as erratic. He had two seasons with Top 10 total yardage attacks. But he also had two total offenses ranked No. 21 or worse and was never in the Top 10 in scoring.

Washington was No. 7 in total offense and No. 5 in scoring last season. We will see if Kingsbury can keep it up.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 2025 DEFENSE

The idea that Washington is a young, up-and-coming team is false. And nowhere is that clearer than on defense.

Washington has the oldest roster in the NFL last year, with 30 guys aged 29 years or older. The defense is still led by 35-year-old middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. And this offseason the Commanders brought in four more guys - Jonathan Jones, Von Miller, Eddie Goldman and Deatrich Wise – over the age of 30 to bolster the stop unit.

The Commanders are desperate to improve a rushing defense that was third-worst in the league. Washington allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. The only team to allow more yards per run last year was Carolina, which allowed the most points in NFL history.

Also, of the bottom 10 rush defenses, Washington was the only team that had a winning record. The other nine teams combined to go just 44-109.

Dan Quinn has traditionally fielded excellent rushing defenses and he may be able to fix that obvious weakness for the Commanders. Of the 11 prior defenses that Quinn has either coordinated or been the head coach of, eight of them finished in the top half of the league in rushing yards allowed.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 2025 SCHEDULE

Date                  Opponent (Loc.)                      Time

Sun, Sep 7        vs New York Giants                  1:00 p.m. ET

Thu, Sep 11     @ Green Bay Packers              8:15 p.m. ET

Sun, Sep 21     vs Las Vegas Raiders               1:00 p.m. ET

Sun, Sep 28     @ Atlanta Falcons                     1:00 p.m. ET

Sun, Oct 5        @ Los Angeles Chargers        4:25 p.m. ET

Mon, Oct 13    vs Chicago Bears                       8:15 p.m. ET

Sun, Oct 19      @ Dallas Cowboys                    4:25 p.m. ET

Mon, Oct 27    @ Kansas City Chiefs               8:15 p.m. ET

Sun, Nov 2       vs Seattle Seahawks                8:20 p.m. ET

Sun, Nov 9       vs Detroit Lions                         4:25 p.m. ET

Sun, Nov 16     Miami Dolphins (Madrid)    9:30 a.m. ET

Week 12           BYE     

Sun, Nov 30     vs Denver Broncos                   8:20 p.m. ET

Sun, Dec 7        @ Minnesota Vikings 1:00 p.m. ET

Sun, Dec 14     @ New York Giants                  1:00 p.m. ET

Sat, Dec 20      vs Philadelphia Eagles            TBD

Thu, Dec 25     vs Dallas Cowboys                    1:00 p.m. ET

Sun, Jan 4         @ Philadelphia Eagles            TBD

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 2025 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Washington’s leap from four wins in 2023 to 12 wins in 2024 was tied for the ninth-best single-season improvement in the NFL since they went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. It was just the 15th time that a team increased its wins by eight or more games.

Of the previous 14 teams to do it, 12 finished with fewer wins the next season. The average drop was five wins per season, with one team (1998 Jets) improving its record the next year and one (2013 Colts) matching its win total.

That is just one of several numbers that indicate that Washington might come back to earth.

The Commanders were a ridiculous 8-1 in close games last season. That includes the Chicago Hail Mary Debacle, a three-point win over the Giants when New York lost its kicker in warm-ups, and a two-point win over the Saints when New Orleans failed on a two-point conversion to end the game.

Washington beat its win expectation by 1.4 games and they also had the fifth-fewest adjusted starts lost to injury.

Finally, Washington has a much more difficult schedule this season. They are also somewhat victims of their own success. The Commanders will have to deal with four short weeks this season because of being thrust into four nationally televised games on Mondays and Thursdays.

I’ll play the ‘under’.

Robert Ferringo has posted seven of 10 winning football seasons, including last year thanks to an astounding +10,830 three-month run. Robert banked nearly +40,000 in profit between 2010-2019 for a 10-year average profit of nearly +4,000. He has earned 11 of 16 overall winning years and 69 of 114 winning months while also going 23-9 with his football futures rated 5.0+ and earning 16 of 19 winning Super Bowls. He is a member of the Football Writers Association of America and he is set for another amazing football season. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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