Buffalo Bills Predictions for Playoffs and Best Bets with Super Bowl Odds
The Buffalo Bills have once again found themselves near the top of the Super Bowl betting odds. Will this be the season they can finally take that next step and play in the big game? The Bills have a solid team on both sides of the ball and won their last 5 regular season games to clinch the AFC East. Josh Allen has been playing responsible football, and the Bills will be confident this can be the year they finally make, and even win, the Super Bowl. Buffalo made quick work of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round, building a 21-0 lead and cruising the rest of the way, but the matchups will not be any easier than that for the rest of the postseason. In a crowded AFC playoff picture, can we justify a bet on the Bills making a deep playoff run? Let’s dive in.
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Odds to win the divisional round: -150
Odds to win the AFC: +210
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +450
Team Breakdown
Since Josh Allen was drafted in 2018, the Bills have strung together 5 straight double digit win seasons, after having none since 1999. Allen has elevated what was a lost franchise into title contention, but his inability to succeed in the postseason has left the Bills Mafia tearing their hair out. On paper, Allen had one of his worst seasons in a Bills uniform, throwing a career high 18 interceptions and finishing with a career low 92.2 QBR. A slow start to the season had the Bills out the outside looking in for a majority of the year. However, during the Bills 6 game win streak, he threw for 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while running in for 7 more scores. The dual threat signal caller is a tough man to contain, as his willingness to take contact for a few extra yards has seen the Bills fly up the standings. Stefon Diggs was the clearcut WR1 in Buffalo. And while he still is the best pass catcher, his 1,183 receiving yards is the lowest total in his 4 years in Buffalo. The Bills will need Diggs to step up when it matters most, but they have plenty of other options if he’s having an off night. Dalton Kincaid has been Allen’s favorite target in recent weeks, and his 673 receiving yards has him in the top 10 in the league among tight ends, despite backing Dawson Knox up to start the year. The Bills have been able to scrape out yards in dramatic fashion all season long, posting the league’s best 3rd down conversion percentage at 49.8%, and the 6th best 4th down percentage at 58.8%. A well-rounded Bills offense will give any opposing defense issues, as they can run the ball, make big plays down the field, and there are few better scrambling quarterbacks than Allen.
On defense, Buffalo was hit with early season injuries that threatened to derail their season, but they have rebounded admirably. Arguably the best linebacker in the league, Matt Milano, suffered a season ending injury in Week 5, but the Bills pressed forward. They managed to finish with the 4th fewest points allowed in the league, thanks to big 3rd down stops and a solid run defense. Leonard Floyd and Ed Oliver have anchored a solid Bills defensive line, and they can both get to the quarterback and stop the run. The pair of Pro Bowl alternates posted 10.5 and 9.5 sacks, respectively, and will be critical to the Bills success in the rest of the postseason. Going back, linebackers Terrel Bernard and Baylon Spector both suffered injuries in the Wild Card game, leaving the Bills even thinner in the most critical defensive position. All season long, the Bills backups have stepped up admirably when their starters went down and have managed to keep the Bills among the league’s best defenses, regardless of who is on the field. Head coach Sean McDermott calls the plays for the Bills, and he has done a fantastic job at playing to his team’s strengths and finding ways to make big stops.
Path to the Super Bowl
There aren’t many easier playoff games than a home game against the fraudulent Steelers, who the Bill easily swatted aside in the Wild Card round. The path to the Super Bowl gets significantly tougher for Buffalo, and first up is the defending champions and fierce Bills rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have gone head-to-head twice in the postseason, with Mahomes beating him on both occasions. The Chiefs are no longer the juggernaut they once were, but a strong defensive unit for Kansas City has turned them into a different type of threat. The Bills will have a tough task getting past the Chiefs, and the games don’t get any easier, with what will likely be the Baltimore Ravens awaiting them in the AFC Championship. Baltimore has been atop the AFC standings since Week 10, and the league’s best defensive unit with Lamar Jackson on offense will prove to be difficult for the Bills to outlast. If the Texans can upset Baltimore, Buffalo will get a home game against Houston to decide the AFC, which is a much easier task. The winner of the NFC will either be the San Francisco 49ers, or a team that had to go through the 49ers, both of which are equally terrifying. The Bills will undoubtedly have 3 tough matchups to get through to lift the franchise’s first Super Bowl, and Josh Allen and co. will be optimistic that this is the year they can finally take that next step.
Best Bets
The Bills are -150 favorites to swat aside the Chiefs in the divisional round, and I can’t get behind that wager. The Chiefs have had the Bills number in the postseason. And while this is arguably the worst the Chiefs have been in recent memory, there is no way a shorthanded Bills team deserves to be such large favorites. Patrick Mahomes has defied the doubters numerous times before. And equipped with the best defensive unit he’s had in his Chiefs tenure, Kansas City will be quietly confident they can extend their playoff run. If the Bills get past the Chiefs, they are +210 to win the AFC, which is another number I’m not a fan of. Baltimore and the 49ers have appeared to be on a collision course in the Super Bowl all season long. And while the Bills could beat the Ravens (assuming they beat the Texans), the price is simply not good enough to warrant a wager. The Bills have been consistently overvalued in recent years, and this is another instance. They are not deserving of a short +450 Super Bowl line, as someone like the Detroit Lions has not only a cleaner path to the Super Bowl, but a healthier team, too. The Bills still have plenty of life this postseason, but the inflated odds have made their futures unplayable.
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