2024 Buffalo Bills Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Ryan Cobbett - 8/27/2024

After a 6-6 start to the season, the Bills ended the season with a 5-0 tear, finishing 11-6 on the season and a division win. Every Bills loss last season, including their postseason loss to the Chiefs, was a one possession game, carrying an average margin of defeat of -4.1 PPG. Their season would come to an end, falling in the Divisional Round to the Chiefs 27-24.

Josh Allen finished with 4,306 yards last season, which was the fourth most in the NFL. He threw 29 touchdowns, which placed him inside the Top 5 in the league, while his 18 interceptions were the second most last season. Allen added another 524 yards on the ground and 15 more touchdowns on the ground. Running back James Cook led the ground game with 1,122 yards but finished third on the team with two rushing touchdowns behind Allen’s 15 and backup running back Latavius Murray’s four. Stefon Diggs was the leading receiver with 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. Gabe Davis was second on the team with seven touchdowns and 746 yards receiving. Cook recorded four receiving touchdowns, while tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox and receiver Khalil Shakir each recorded two apiece.

Linebacker Terrel Bernard led the team with 143 tackles, which was good for 12th most in the league. Jordan Poyer and his 101 tackles was second on the team, and he was the only other Bills player to eclipse the 100 tackles. Bernard was second on the team with three interceptions, while also recording 6.5 sacks and 10 TFLs. Cornerback Rasul Dougles finished with four interceptions, while defensive end Leonard Floyd led the team with 10.5 sacks. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver was behind Floyd with 9.5 sacks while leading the team with 14 TFLs.

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Buffalo Bills Key Additions/Losses

The Bills lost a lot on both sides of the ball, especially on the defensive side. Safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, along with cornerback Tre’Davious White and edge rusher Leonard Floyd, have all departed. That’s the team’s leading sack getter, second leading tackler, and a collection of significant presences on that side of the ball. As for the offense, the two leading receivers in Stefon Diggs and Gave Davis found new clubs this offseason.

They found band-aid replacements for Diggs and Davis in the draft and in the offseason. They brought in Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins to provide depth at the position. They brought in Mitch Trubisky to back up Allen, as well as safety Mike Edwards to strengthen the secondary by replacing Hyde and Poyer.

Buffalo Bills New Kids on the Block

The Bills did not have a pick in the first round. Their first selection was the 33rd pick, where they took Florida State receiver Keon Coleman. The Bills added depth on the defensive side of the ball, taking safety Cole Bishop, defensive tackle DeWayne Carter, linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio, edge rusher Javon Solomon, and cornerback Daequan Hardy. They also used three of their picks on the offensive line, including potential steal in Sedrick Van Pran-Granger out of Georgia.

Buffalo Bills X-Factors

Keon Coleman- The Bills are betting heavy on Coleman to have a Day 1 impact as there are huge shoes to fill with Diggs and Davis in other uniforms. Josh Allen’s sudden turnover issues also add to the need for Coleman to settle in fast, especially since Coleman excelled in college on 50/50 tries.

The Defense- The defense is going to feature a lot of new names thanks to the offseason plan of reshaping and restructuring the unit thanks to budget issues. Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, and AJ Epenesa will form a good defensive line, but the secondary will be much weaker, which is not good when the Bills will see Tua Tagovailoa and Aaron Rodgers twice, as well as Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford.

Buffalo Bills Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +1700

AFC Champion: +900

AFC East Winner: +195

NFL MVP- Josh Allen: +800

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year- Keon Coleman: +3700

Buffalo Bills Schedule Breakdown

Predicted Win Total: 10.5 Games

This schedule is tough and makes the over win total a big-time stretch. The Bills ceiling may be 10-7 this season, and the losses of Diggs, Davis, Hyde, Poyer, and Floyd feel like more than a one game regression. They have seven likely losses on the schedule that include road games at Miami, Baltimore, Houston, New York Jets, and Detroit as well as home games against San Francisco and Kansas City. There are only four wins on the schedule, Week 1 against Arizona, Week 3 against Jacksonville, Week 7 against Tennessee, and Week 16 against New England. There is no room for error for the Bills if they want to get near their 10.5 game win total. I think the Bills could finish the season with a losing record, so I am definitely on the under.

Buffalo Bills Predictions

I am all in on the under 10.5 wins as I see the ceiling being just 10-7 for the Bills. They have lost a lot and did not do a great job replacing the departed talent. Miami and New York will give them some trouble within the division, and their schedule is plagued with a lot of playoff caliber opponents. Josh Allen turned the ball over a ton last season. And while the offensive line may have improved, he does not have the same firepower around him. The secondary may be one of the worst in the league, and there are a lot of depth questions for Buffalo. Keon Coleman has tremendous value as an Offensive Rookie of the Year option at +3700 as he could be WR1 this season, but he is the only highlight on this squad. This is a near .500 football team, and they are in for a long season.

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Start:	July 1, 2025 @ 8:45 PM
Expert:	Raphael Esparza (VSI)
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2024 Buffalo Bills Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl

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