2023-24 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award Odds and Predictions
Last year featured a very close race for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson winning the award over Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker despite the ball carrier receiving more first-place votes than the Gang Green pass-catcher. Bengals electric wideout Ja’Marr Chase ran away with the award in 2021, and Chargers Justin Herbert won after setting the single season record for touchdown passes by a rookie quarterback.
Only five of the last 21 Offensive Rookie of the Year winners were not picked in Day 1 of the NFL Draft, and it has been six consecutive years in which the OROY was a first-round pick. Alvin Kamara and Dak Prescott, selected in the third and fourth rounds, were the last non-first-round picks to take home the award in back-to-back seasons in 2016 and 2017. Seven of the last 10 winners have been either wide receivers or running backs. No surprise, Bijan Robinson is the current favorite for this upcoming season. Can a trifecta of quarterbacks or speedy wide receivers sneak in to win the award? We will break down some of the best bets below.
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Bijan Robinson (+275)
Robinson is the favorite, and for good reason, as the former Texas running back appears to be headed into a workhorse role. As mentioned earlier, this award favors skill players over quarterbacks. The Falcons finished first in the NFL with 559 rushing attempts last season. After using their No. 8 overall pick on a running back, there is no reason to expect the offensive game plan to change. Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson will compete for carries, but using that draft capital on the position means Robinson will be used early and often. He should be in for a massive rookie season.
Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000)
Gibbs is electric and accelerates effortlessly on the football field. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry on nearly 400 carries in the SEC. He also ran a 4.36 at the combine, faster than a lot of the wide receivers. He comes into a situation where he compliments his running mate very well, as David Montgomery is more of a lateral jump-cut attacker. It will also help that the Lions have built a tremendous offensive line featuring three Pro Bowlers. I predict Gibbs will back up Montgomery then take over as the feature back by the middle of October. He will make a push for OROY.
Jordan Addison (+1700)
Addison lands in a spot, compared to the other wide receivers taken in the first round, where he should see plenty of targets right out of the gate. The Vikings threw the ball 672 times last season, the third-most attempts in the NFL. With Dalvin Cook being released, this team will still be a pass-heavy offense. Defenses will key in on Justin Jefferson, which should leave lanes open for other Viking receivers. Adam Thielen drew 107 targets last year that are now vacant since he moved on to the Carolina Panthers. K.J. Osborn will compete for the No. 2 spot, and T.J. Hockenson will eat a lot of targets as well. Addison has an easy path to 100+ targets in a solid passing game.
Zay Flowers (+3000)
Flowers provides great value at 30-1 and heads into a situation that could benefit the rookie wide receiver. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken will put the league on notice early that the Ravens will feature the passing game after locking up quarterback Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal. Defenses will be keying in on stud tight end Mark Andrews and new signee Odell Beckham Jr. in the passing game. They also must worry about Jackson using his legs and taking off for a 50+ yard scamper down the field. Flowers will be the beneficiary of seeing one-on-one coverage consistently and slipping through the holes of zone coverage. Flowers excels at beating press with his feet and physicality, excellent route running, and he plays bigger than his small frame due to his strong hands. If the Ravens excel at turning around the air attack, Flowers will be a big reason why and should garner attention for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
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