2023 Philadelphia Eagles Predictions with Season Win Total Odds
Speaking from personal experience, the Super Bowl hangover is real.
The Monday after The Big Game is one of the worst days of the year, and it usually includes my body slowly trying to banish a bottle of whiskey and the stress of six months of high-intensity gambling.
What about a Super Bowl hangover for the losers of The Big Game?
That is a little more complicated.
Last February the Philadelphia Eagles became history’s 57th Super Bowl loser. Generally, momentum doesn’t carry over from season to season in the NFL. But I dug through the results of the previous 56 runners-up to see if there was any pattern to how they performed the following year.
Honestly, the results were better than I thought, and that bodes well for this year’s Eagles.
An impressive 39 of 56 teams (70 percent) of Super Bowl losers make the playoffs the following season. Since 2010, only three of 12 runners up failed to make the postseason the next year (2016 Panthers, 2019 Rams and 2020 49ers).
Now, for the 17 teams that didn’t make the postseason after losing the Super Bowl, things went off the rails. Eleven of the 17 didn’t even have a .500 record the next year.
Further, only eight teams in history lost the Super Bowl one season and made it back the next year. Buffalo famously made it to – and lost – four straight in the early 1990’s.
Since Buffalo’s last Super Bowl excursion in 1993, only 10 of the last 29 championship losers won 11 or more games.
Now for the really bad news for Eagles fans: only three teams have ever won a Super Bowl the year after losing in The Big Game: the 1971 Cowboys, 1972 Dolphins and 2018 Patriots.
Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 2023 OFFENSE
The Eagles welcome back four of five starters and seven of their top 10 offensive linemen from last year’s devastating front. Jason Kelce’s decision, at age 35, to play one more season, was a major boost for this unit and for this locker room.
This team is hoping that third-round pick Tyler Steen can ably fill in for right guard Isaac Seumalo, who transversed the Keystone State to sign with Pittsburgh this offseason.
The offensive line paved the way for the league’s No. 5 rushing attack. Leading rusher Miles Sanders (1,269 yards) left in free agency, leaving quarterback Jalen Hurts as the team’s top returning runner.
Philly’s front office made to deft maneuvers to bring in D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, two underachieving veterans with high-end pedigrees.
Last year’s offseason maneuver to land beast wideout A.J. Brown transformed this entire offense. Brown will again pair with slick DeVonta Smith to give the Eagles one of the best receiving duos in football.
Hurts was the runner-up in the MVP race last season and put up a monster season. He accounted for over 4,400 total yards and 35 touchdowns in just 15 games.
The Eagles won’t have the cushion of Gardner Minshew as Hurts’ backup this season.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 2023 DEFENSE
The Eagles aren’t just physically imposing at the point of attack on offense. Philadelphia’s front seven absolutely overwhelmed opponents, registering a league-best 70 sacks and posting the No. 2 total defense in the NFL.
Javon Hargrave left in free agency. But second-year man Jordan Davis and rookie Jalen Carter give the Eagles two high-upside replacements (at a much lower cost).
Philadelphia also lost starting linebackers Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards. Again, a second-year former Georgia Bulldog, Nakobe Dean, will be tasked with filling one spot, while rookie Nolan Smith may slide into the other. Underrated free agent pickup Nick Morrow is another option as well.
The Eagles secondary took full advantage of Philly’s amazing pass rush last season, intercepting 17 passes. Starters Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox are all back, with intriguing Greedy Williams and rookie Kelee Ringo providing depth.
Philadelphia also upgraded at safety, going from Marcus Epps to Terrell Edmunds, formerly of Pittsburgh.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 2023 SCHEDULE
The Eagles were the beneficiaries of one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last year. Any season in which you get to crossover against the AFC South, things are usually going to go pretty well.
Philadelphia won’t have that benefit this year, as four games against the loaded AFC East will be a serious challenge.
Week 1: 9/10 at New England Patriots, 4:25 PM, CBS
Week 2: 9/14 vs. Minnesota Vikings (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon
Week 3: 9/25 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday), 7:15 PM, ABC
Week 4: 10/1 vs. Washington Commanders, 1 PM, FOX
Week 5: 10/8 at Los Angeles Rams, 4 PM, FOX
Week 6: 10/15 at New York Jets, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 7: 10/22 vs. Miami Dolphins, 8:20 PM, NBC
Week 8: 10/29 at Washington Commanders, 1 PM, FOX
Week 9: 11/5 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 10: Bye Week
Week 11: 11/20 at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN/ABC
Week 12: 11/26 vs. Buffalo Bills, 4:25 PM, CBS
Week 13: 12/3 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 14: 12/10 at Dallas Cowboys, 8:20 PM, NBC
Week 15: 12/17 at Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 PM, FOX
Week 16: 12/25 vs. New York Giants, 4:30 PM, FOX
Week 17: 12/31 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 PM, FOX
Week 18: TBD at New York Giants, TBD, TBD
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS
Call it a Super Bowl loser jinx or hangover or whatever you want. The fact of the matter is that once you climb to the top of the mountain, only to be knocked off in the last game of the season, it is hard to summon the strength to make that journey once again.
Philadelphia was one of the league’s biggest overachievers last season, beating their Pythagorean Wins Expectation by 2.6 games. That alone is screaming “regression” for this season.
The Eagles also went 3-0 in close games, they had a +8 turnover differential, they had the third-best injury luck in the NFL, and their offensive yards per point of 13.3 was No. 2 in the league and in the regression range.
Throw the weight of their Super Bowl loss on top, and the Eagles have more baggage than they would care to admit heading into the season.
So why do I have them ranked No. 2 in my Power Rankings?
Because as of right now they have, top-to-bottom, one of the five best rosters in football. I’ll side with talent when trying to make projections about an NFL season. And there is no clear weakness on this team, on either side of the ball.
I would take the Eagles ‘Under’ 11.5 wins if I had to make a bet on their season win total. I don’t like to argue with history. And as I previously mentioned, 19 of the last 29 Super Bowl losers won 10 or fewer games the next season.
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