San Francisco 49ers Predictions for Playoffs and Best Bets with Super Bowl Odds
The 49ers have been the Super Bowl favorite for most of the season and have separated themselves from the chasing pack thanks to a plethora of offensive weapons and a stout defensive unit. A visit from the Green Bay Packers, who just demolished the Dallas Cowboys, will be a tough test for the 49ers, who will have not played a meaningful football game for 3 weeks by the time Saturday rolls around. The runaway favorites are the team to beat. However, is there still money to be made at the short odds on offer for the Super Bowl hopeful? Let’s take a deeper look.
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Odds to win the divisional round: -500
Odds to win the NFC: -190
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +175
Team Breakdown
The 49ers have a top 5 offense in terms of passing yards, rushing yards, overall yards, and points. In the backfield, Christian McCaffrey has been dominant, leading the league with 21 touchdowns, including tying the NFL record of a touchdown in 17 straight games dating back to last season. McCaffrey’s ability to effectively run the ball, while being a reliable option in RPO’s and flats, allows the 49ers to keep teams honest, forcing them to fill up the tackle box. However, once they do so, one on one coverage down the sideline for Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel is a recipe for disaster. Brock Purdy has been able to consistently find his targets, with both wideouts catching 60+ passes for 890+ yards. Finally, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk are among the best blocking tight ends and fullbacks in the league, allowing Purdy to have plenty of time in the pocket to find his targets. Once you factor in future hall of famer Trent Williams covering Purdy’s blindside, and the fact that he is one of 5 Pro Bowl starters for the 49ers, it’s not surprising to see the 49ers among the league leaders in almost every offensive category.
On defense, the 49ers are nearly as dominant. They are top 3 in both rushing yards allowed, and points, which is the most important statistic, while keeping their pass defense in the top half. While they may give up their fair share of passing yards, due to the fact that they are often forcing their opponents into passing situations to preserve the clock, this is expected. Nick Bosa leads a frightening pass rush, and there is no room for double teams with Chase Young and Javon Hargrave both eager to get their hands on the quarterback. The Pro Bowl caliber talent doesn’t end there, as Fred Warner and Tre Greenlaw comprise the best linebacker duo in the league, with cornerback Charvarius Ward joining numerous teammates at the Pro Bowl. Ward is stellar in the secondary, but safeties Ji’Ayir Brown and Tashaun Gipson Sr. have allowed explosive plays from their assignments numerous times this season. The excellent pass rush usually doesn’t give opposing receivers time to develop their routes, but when the opposition quarterback has time in the pocket, their secondary can be vulnerable to one-on-one coverage.
Path to the Super Bowl
First up for the 49ers will be the Green Bay Packers, fresh off their win over the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay has plenty of belief they can extend their 4-game win streak dating back to the regular season, and their quality pass defense could give Purdy problems. They have plenty of swagger on offense, with Jordan Love looking like a quality successor for Aaron Rodgers, and were the youngest team in NFL history to win a playoff game, with an average age of just 25 years and 214 days. A fearless Packers unit may not have the same skill set as the juggernaut 49ers, but they will not back down when they head to San Francisco next weekend.
In the divisional round, the 49ers will come up against the Lions or the Buccaneers. Detroit just secured their first playoff win since 1992, ousting Matthew Stafford and the Rams, 24-23. Detroit has a solid defense, a well-rounded offense, and has the aggressive play calling needed to give the 49ers trouble. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers made it look easy against the Eagles, winning 32-9 on their home field. Strong play from the lines was a crucial difference-maker. And if they can one again win the battle in the trenches, they have the potential to upset the 49ers in the NFC Championship. Their toughest task will undoubtedly be in the Super Bowl itself, as whoever emerges from a crowded AFC Championship race will have the credentials to give the 49ers a real run for their money.
Best Bets
The 49ers may be the clearcut Super Bowl favorites, and are probably the team most likely to lift the Lombardi trophy next month, but there is no way I can touch them at just +175 odds, or any of their other futures. They are a -500 moneyline favorite over Green Bay and will almost certainly be a favorite in the NFC title game and the Super Bowl. However, a -170 price for an NFC Championship, when they will likely be in the -190 range when kickoff rolls around anyways, is absurd. Injuries could always dismantle their Super Bowl charge, as we saw against the Eagles last season.
There are simply too many variables to warrant a bet at any of these odds, but we do have a solid way to cash in on a potential Super Bowl charge. The Super Bowl MVP award has gone to a quarterback in 12 of the last 17 seasons, but the NFL has slowly been shifting away from that phenomenon, with just 6 quarterback winners in the last 10 years. It is no secret that Brock Purdy is widely disrespected in the mass media, as his success has been attributed to his surroundings rather than his overall play. That makes a +800 price tag on Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl MVP award very tempting. McCaffrey has put together one of the most dominant regular season campaigns in recent memory. And while the regular season MVP award appeared to slip through his fingers, it would surprise nobody if he had a big Super Bowl and took home the hardware. At +800 odds, this is a much better bet than a +175 ticket on the 49ers as a whole, as this price will not be available as the big game gets closer.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey Super Bowl MVP +800
Stay away from the other overvalued 49ers futures.
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