What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?
What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?
A new report by Doc’s Sports examines both the worst and best fantasy football draft values from 2020–2024, analyzing 1,261 players across five seasons with particular focus on early-round selections and those who delivered outsized returns relative to their draft cost. Using a consistent Value Score methodology, the findings identify both cautionary tales and league-winning picks to guide fantasy managers.
Key Takeaway
- Dalvin Cook's 2023 season recorded the lowest value score at -226.6,, highlighting the risks of early-round picks.
- Allen Robinson is the era's most consistent disappointment, appearing three times among the worst values.
- Running backs are the most volatile position, making 13 of the top 25 busts (52%).
Worst Draft Values (2020–2024)
Our Value Score measures how much a player's actual fantasy production exceeded or fell short of expectations based on their draft position, adjusted for games played. The calculation includes baseline expectations derived from draft position, actual fantasy production, and an injury adjustment based on games played out of 17.
The annual worst draft busts ranged from -133.4 to -226.6 value scores, with 2023’s Dalvin Cook (ADP 6.0) representing the worst draft in the five-year dataset.
**Insert First Graph**
Top 10 Overall Worst Draft Values
The following table reveals the most catastrophic draft investments of the past five years, with Dalvin Cook's 2023 collapse leading a list dominated by early-round failures.
|
Year |
Player Name |
Position |
ADP |
Fantasy Pts |
Games |
Value Score |
Draft Rd |
|
2023 |
Dalvin Cook |
RB5 |
6.0 |
40.2 |
15 |
-226.6 |
1 |
|
2023 |
Allen Robinson |
WR21 |
59.5 |
62.0 |
17 |
-208.2 |
5 |
|
2022 |
Robert Woods |
WR15 |
42.3 |
115.7 |
17 |
-163.2 |
4 |
|
2023 |
Elijah Mitchell |
RB21 |
48.0 |
47.5 |
11 |
-147.9 |
4 |
|
2022 |
Kareem Hunt |
RB22 |
50.8 |
126.8 |
17 |
-147.8 |
5 |
|
2023 |
Kyle Pitts |
TE3 |
32.0 |
137.3 |
17 |
-146.7 |
3 |
|
2020 |
Mark Ingram |
RB22 |
42.0 |
52.9 |
11 |
-146.3 |
4 |
|
2021 |
Allen Robinson |
WR13 |
38.0 |
87.0 |
12 |
-136.9 |
4 |
|
2021 |
Mike Davis |
RB23 |
53.3 |
138.2 |
17 |
-135.2 |
5 |
|
2023 |
Antonio Gibson |
RB25 |
60.0 |
127.4 |
16 |
-134.2 |
5 |
Position Breakdown
Running backs emerge as the riskiest position for early-round investments, accounting for nearly half of all major busts.
- RBs: 12 out of top 25 worst values (48%)
- WRs: 8
- TEs: 5
Repeat Offenders
Several players consistently disappointed fantasy managers across multiple seasons, with Allen Robinson leading this unfortunate group.
|
Player |
Bust Years |
Avg Value Score |
|
Allen Robinson |
2023, 2022, 2021 |
-153.5 |
|
Kyle Pitts |
2023, 2022 |
-131.9 |
|
Julio Jones |
2022, 2021 |
-119.2 |
|
Mike Davis |
2021, 2022 |
-130.9 |
Injury Impact
Surprisingly, players who stayed mostly healthy often produced worse value scores than those with moderate injuries, suggesting performance issues beyond availability.
|
Health Status |
Count |
Avg Value Score |
Avg Fantasy Pts |
|
Severe Injury (≤8 games) |
1 |
-126.7 |
4.2 |
|
Moderate Injury (9–12 games) |
12 |
-126.5 |
80.8 |
|
Mostly Healthy (13+ games) |
12 |
-148.7 |
113.8 |
Best Draft Values (2020–2024)
Best Values by Quarterbacks
While early rounds produced devastating busts, the biggest steals came from later rounds and waiver wire pickups that delivered exceptional value.
|
Player (Year) |
Value Score |
ADP |
Fantasy Points |
Games |
|
Lamar Jackson (2024) |
+149.4 |
38.0 |
430.4 |
17 |
|
Baker Mayfield (2024) |
+147.3 |
163.0 |
365.8 |
17 |
|
Josh Allen (2020) |
+129.2 |
82.3 |
396.1 |
16 |
|
Jared Goff (2022) |
+128.8 |
289.0 |
284.3 |
17 |
|
Patrick Mahomes (2022) |
+124.5 |
14.3 |
417.4 |
17 |
Best Values by Wide Receivers
|
Player (Year) |
Value Score |
ADP |
Fantasy Points |
Games |
|
Cooper Kupp (2021) |
+165.9 |
52.8 |
439.5 |
17 |
|
CeeDee Lamb (2023) |
+113.2 |
20.0 |
403.2 |
17 |
|
Hunter Renfrow (2021) |
+107.1 |
296.0 |
259.1 |
17 |
|
Ja'Marr Chase (2024) |
+106.2 |
6.5 |
403.0 |
17 |
Best Values by Running Backs
|
Player (Year) |
Value Score |
ADP |
Fantasy Points |
Games |
|
James Robinson (2020) |
+97.1 |
335.0 |
250.4 |
14 |
Best vs Worst Values: By the Numbers
|
Metric |
Best Values (Top 25) |
Worst Values (Bottom 25) |
|
Average ADP |
112.3 |
45.3 |
|
Average Fantasy Points |
362.9 |
93.6 |
|
Average Games Played |
16.5 |
13.0 |
|
Average Value Score |
+115.8 |
-137.2 |
Late-round picks (Avg. ADP 112.3) offered the largest returns, while early-round safety (Avg. ADP 45.3) did not guarantee results.
Best 7 Late-Round Fantasy Picks
Late-Round Gems (ADP > 150)
These late-round selections and waiver wire additions provided championship-level production at minimal draft cost.
|
Player (Year) |
Round |
ADP |
Points |
Value Score |
|
Baker Mayfield (2024) |
14 |
163.0 |
365.8 |
+147.3 |
|
Jared Goff (2022) |
25 |
289.0 |
284.3 |
+128.8 |
|
Bo Nix (2024) |
17 |
197.0 |
317.2 |
+115.7 |
|
Sam Darnold (2024) |
18 |
215.0 |
308.0 |
+115.5 |
|
Hunter Renfrow (2021) |
25 |
296.0 |
259.1 |
+107.1 |
|
Daniel Jones (2022) |
21 |
246.5 |
289.0 |
+105.6 |
|
James Robinson (2020) |
28 |
335.0 |
250.4 |
+97.1 |
Waiver Wire Heroes (ADP > 250)
The ultimate bargains came from players drafted so late they were essentially free, yet delivered starter-level fantasy production.
- Jared Goff (2022) – ADP 289.0, Value Score +128.8
- Hunter Renfrow (2021) – ADP 296.0, Value Score +107.1
- James Robinson (2020) – ADP 335.0, Value Score +97.1
Drafting in fantasy football is inherently risky: even elite early-round picks can produce disastrous results, while the biggest league-winners are often unearthed in the later rounds or off waivers. Prioritizing health, upside, and opportunity and leveraging late-round values is the surest path to championship contention.
Methodology
Data Sources
Our analysis combines Average Draft Position (ADP) data from fantaspros with performance statistics from Pro Football Reference, spanning 2020-2024. From 1,261 total players, we focused on 271 early-round selections (ADP ≤ 60) representing the first five rounds of 12-team leagues—the highest-stakes picks where value assessment is most critical.
Value Score Calculation
We developed a four-step scoring system to quantify draft value:
1. Expected Performance Baseline
Expected_PPR = 300 - (ADP × 0.5)
This linear model establishes performance expectations based on draft position, with each pick expected to produce 0.5 fewer fantasy points than the previous selection.
2. Raw Value Assessment
Value_Over_Expected = Actual_PPR - Expected_PPR
Measures pure performance relative to draft cost, with positive values indicating outperformance and negative values showing underperformance.
3. Availability Adjustment
Games_Factor = Games_Played / 17
Accounts for injury impact while reflecting the real-world consequence of player unavailability.
4. Final Adjusted Value Score
Adjusted_Value_Score = Value_Over_Expected × Games_Factor
Combines performance and availability into a single metric where positive scores indicate draft steals and negative scores represent busts.
Analytical Applications
This methodology enables identification of draft busts and steals, positional risk assessment, and temporal trend analysis across seasons. The score produces intuitive results with strong face validity: value scores range from -226.6 to +165.9, with distribution clustering around break-even and meaningful outliers representing extreme cases.
Limitations
The linear expectation model assumes consistent value decline by draft position and applies PPR scoring uniformly. Injury timing and severity aren't differentiated, and the 17-game adjustment is applied retroactively to 2020 data for consistency.
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