What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?

A new report by Doc’s Sports examines both the worst and best fantasy football draft values from 2020–2024, analyzing 1,261 players across five seasons with a focus on early-round selections and players who delivered outsized returns relative to their draft cost. Using a consistent Value Score methodology, the findings identify both cautionary tales and league-winning picks to guide fantasy managers.

Key Takeaway

Dalvin Cook's 2023 season recorded the lowest value score at -226.6, highlighting the risks of early-round picks.
Allen Robinson is the era's most consistent disappointment, appearing three times among the worst values.
Running backs are the most volatile position, making 13 of the top 25 busts (52%).

Worst Draft Values (2020–2024)

Our Value Score measures how much a player's actual fantasy production exceeded or fell short of expectations based on their draft position, adjusted for games played. The calculation includes baseline expectations derived from draft position, actual fantasy production, and an injury adjustment based on games played out of 17.

The annual worst draft busts ranged from -133.4 to -226.6, with 2023’s Dalvin Cook (ADP 6.0) ranking as the worst draft value in the dataset.

The table reveals the most catastrophic draft investments of the past five years, with Dalvin Cook's 2023 collapse leading a list dominated by early-round failures.

Position Breakdown

RBs: 12 of top 25 worst values (48%)
WRs: 8
TEs: 5

Several players consistently disappointed fantasy managers across multiple seasons, with Allen Robinson leading this unfortunate group.

Surprisingly, players who stayed mostly healthy often produced worse value scores than those with moderate injuries, suggesting performance issues beyond availability.

Best Draft Values (2020–2024)

Late-round picks (Avg. ADP 112.3) offered the largest returns, while early-round safety (Avg. ADP 45.3) did not guarantee results.

Best 7 Late-Round Fantasy Picks

Waiver Wire Heroes (ADP > 250)

The ultimate bargains came from players drafted so late they were essentially free, yet delivered starter-level fantasy production.

Jared Goff (2022) – ADP 289.0, Value Score: +128.8
Hunter Renfrow (2021) – ADP 296.0, Value Score: +107.1
James Robinson (2020) – ADP 335.0, Value Score: +97.1

Drafting in fantasy football is inherently risky: even elite early-round picks can produce disastrous results, while the biggest league-winners are often unearthed in the later rounds or off waivers. Prioritizing health, upside, and opportunity while leveraging late-round values is the surest path to championship contention.

Methodology

Data Sources

ADP data sourced from FantasyPros
Performance statistics from Pro Football Reference

Sample and Scope

Total players analyzed: 1,261 (2020–2024)
Focus on 271 early-round picks (ADP ≤ 60)

Value Score Calculation

Expected Performance Baseline: Expected_PPR = 300 - (ADP × 0.5)
Raw Value Assessment: Value_Over_Expected = Actual_PPR - Expected_PPR
Availability Adjustment: Games_Factor = Games_Played / 17
Final Value Score: Adjusted_Value_Score = Value_Over_Expected × Games_Factor

LimitationsGet sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Linear expectation model assumes even decline across ADPs
PPR scoring applied uniformly
Injury timing not fully modeled
17-game normalization applied retroactively to 2020

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Start:	August 20, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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