What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?

by Docsports.com - 7/29/2025

What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?

A new report by Doc’s Sports examines both the worst and best fantasy football draft values from 2020–2024, analyzing 1,261 players across five seasons with particular focus on early-round selections and those who delivered outsized returns relative to their draft cost. Using a consistent Value Score methodology, the findings identify both cautionary tales and league-winning picks to guide fantasy managers.

Key Takeaway

Dalvin Cook's 2023 season recorded the lowest value score at -226.6,, highlighting the risks of early-round picks.
Allen Robinson is the era's most consistent disappointment, appearing three times among the worst values.
Running backs are the most volatile position, making 13 of the top 25 busts (52%).

Worst Draft Values (2020–2024)

Our Value Score measures how much a player's actual fantasy production exceeded or fell short of expectations based on their draft position, adjusted for games played. The calculation includes baseline expectations derived from draft position, actual fantasy production, and an injury adjustment based on games played out of 17.

The annual worst draft busts ranged from -133.4 to -226.6 value scores, with 2023’s Dalvin Cook (ADP 6.0) representing the worst draft in the five-year dataset.

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Top 10 Overall Worst Draft Values

The following table reveals the most catastrophic draft investments of the past five years, with Dalvin Cook's 2023 collapse leading a list dominated by early-round failures.

Year	Player Name	Position	ADP	Fantasy Pts	Games	Value Score	Draft Rd
2023	Dalvin Cook	RB5	6.0	40.2	15	-226.6	1
2023	Allen Robinson	WR21	59.5	62.0	17	-208.2	5
2022	Robert Woods	WR15	42.3	115.7	17	-163.2	4
2023	Elijah Mitchell	RB21	48.0	47.5	11	-147.9	4
2022	Kareem Hunt	RB22	50.8	126.8	17	-147.8	5
2023	Kyle Pitts	TE3	32.0	137.3	17	-146.7	3
2020	Mark Ingram	RB22	42.0	52.9	11	-146.3	4
2021	Allen Robinson	WR13	38.0	87.0	12	-136.9	4
2021	Mike Davis	RB23	53.3	138.2	17	-135.2	5
2023	Antonio Gibson	RB25	60.0	127.4	16	-134.2	5

Position Breakdown

Running backs emerge as the riskiest position for early-round investments, accounting for nearly half of all major busts.

RBs: 12 out of top 25 worst values (48%)
WRs: 8
TEs: 5

Repeat Offenders

Several players consistently disappointed fantasy managers across multiple seasons, with Allen Robinson leading this unfortunate group.

Player	Bust Years	Avg Value Score
Allen Robinson	2023, 2022, 2021	-153.5
Kyle Pitts	2023, 2022	-131.9
Julio Jones	2022, 2021	-119.2
Mike Davis	2021, 2022	-130.9

Injury Impact

Surprisingly, players who stayed mostly healthy often produced worse value scores than those with moderate injuries, suggesting performance issues beyond availability.

Health Status	Count	Avg Value Score	Avg Fantasy Pts
Severe Injury (≤8 games)	1	-126.7	4.2
Moderate Injury (9–12 games)	12	-126.5	80.8
Mostly Healthy (13+ games)	12	-148.7	113.8

Best Draft Values (2020–2024)

Best Values by Quarterbacks

While early rounds produced devastating busts, the biggest steals came from later rounds and waiver wire pickups that delivered exceptional value.

Player (Year)	Value Score	ADP	Fantasy Points	Games
Lamar Jackson (2024)	+149.4	38.0	430.4	17
Baker Mayfield (2024)	+147.3	163.0	365.8	17
Josh Allen (2020)	+129.2	82.3	396.1	16
Jared Goff (2022)	+128.8	289.0	284.3	17
Patrick Mahomes (2022)	+124.5	14.3	417.4	17

Best Values by Wide Receivers

Player (Year)	Value Score	ADP	Fantasy Points	Games
Cooper Kupp (2021)	+165.9	52.8	439.5	17
CeeDee Lamb (2023)	+113.2	20.0	403.2	17
Hunter Renfrow (2021)	+107.1	296.0	259.1	17
Ja'Marr Chase (2024)	+106.2	6.5	403.0	17

Best Values by Running Backs

Player (Year)	Value Score	ADP	Fantasy Points	Games
James Robinson (2020)	+97.1	335.0	250.4	14

Best vs Worst Values: By the Numbers

Metric	Best Values (Top 25)	Worst Values (Bottom 25)
Average ADP	112.3	45.3
Average Fantasy Points	362.9	93.6
Average Games Played	16.5	13.0
Average Value Score	+115.8	-137.2

Late-round picks (Avg. ADP 112.3) offered the largest returns, while early-round safety (Avg. ADP 45.3) did not guarantee results.

Best 7 Late-Round Fantasy Picks

Late-Round Gems (ADP > 150)

These late-round selections and waiver wire additions provided championship-level production at minimal draft cost.

Player (Year)	Round	ADP	Points	Value Score
Baker Mayfield (2024)	14	163.0	365.8	+147.3
Jared Goff (2022)	25	289.0	284.3	+128.8
Bo Nix (2024)	17	197.0	317.2	+115.7
Sam Darnold (2024)	18	215.0	308.0	+115.5
Hunter Renfrow (2021)	25	296.0	259.1	+107.1
Daniel Jones (2022)	21	246.5	289.0	+105.6
James Robinson (2020)	28	335.0	250.4	+97.1

Waiver Wire Heroes (ADP > 250)

The ultimate bargains came from players drafted so late they were essentially free, yet delivered starter-level fantasy production.

Jared Goff (2022) – ADP 289.0, Value Score +128.8
Hunter Renfrow (2021) – ADP 296.0, Value Score +107.1
James Robinson (2020) – ADP 335.0, Value Score +97.1

Drafting in fantasy football is inherently risky: even elite early-round picks can produce disastrous results, while the biggest league-winners are often unearthed in the later rounds or off waivers. Prioritizing health, upside, and opportunity and leveraging late-round values is the surest path to championship contention.

Methodology

Data Sources

Our analysis combines Average Draft Position (ADP) data from fantaspros with performance statistics from Pro Football Reference, spanning 2020-2024. From 1,261 total players, we focused on 271 early-round selections (ADP ≤ 60) representing the first five rounds of 12-team leagues—the highest-stakes picks where value assessment is most critical.

Value Score Calculation

We developed a four-step scoring system to quantify draft value:

1. Expected Performance Baseline

Expected_PPR = 300 - (ADP × 0.5)

This linear model establishes performance expectations based on draft position, with each pick expected to produce 0.5 fewer fantasy points than the previous selection.

2. Raw Value Assessment

Value_Over_Expected = Actual_PPR - Expected_PPR

Measures pure performance relative to draft cost, with positive values indicating outperformance and negative values showing underperformance.

3. Availability Adjustment

Games_Factor = Games_Played / 17

Accounts for injury impact while reflecting the real-world consequence of player unavailability.

4. Final Adjusted Value Score

Adjusted_Value_Score = Value_Over_Expected × Games_Factor

Combines performance and availability into a single metric where positive scores indicate draft steals and negative scores represent busts.

Analytical Applications

This methodology enables identification of draft busts and steals, positional risk assessment, and temporal trend analysis across seasons. The score produces intuitive results with strong face validity: value scores range from -226.6 to +165.9, with distribution clustering around break-even and meaningful outliers representing extreme cases.

Limitations

The linear expectation model assumes consistent value decline by draft position and applies PPR scoring uniformly. Injury timing and severity aren't differentiated, and the 17-game adjustment is applied retroactively to 2020 data for consistency.

What Was the Worst Fantasy Football Draft Pick of the Last Five Years?

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