Free NFL Prop Predictions - Week 11
by Jay Horne - 11/20/2009
Lightning struck twice last week as our prop selections took an unprofitable hit for the first time this year on back-to-back weeks. Peyton Manning rallied to post four touchdown passes in a comeback win for the Colts, beating out Tom Brady as predicted in passing scores and putting us at a disappointing 1-2 on the week. We may have steered off course in the past few weeks, but rest assured we will get the ship in the right direction starting this week.
Sunday night games have been spectacular this year, especially with the Colts and Patriots show from last week. This game caused a lot of mid-week talk thanks to Bill Belichick's decision to go for a fourth-and-two from the Patriots own 28 yard line with just two minutes to go in the game. This week's Sunday night game will feature the Philadelphia Eagles in a trip to Soldier Field to battle the Chicago Bears. We have some betting props for this matchup along with some other interesting lines, including ones involving Bill Belichick and the Patriots, to mark down for Week 11 in the NFL. These early betting lines can be found at Bodog Sportsbook.
Prop Bet No. 1 - How many interceptions will Jay Cutler throw vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Under 1 ½ (-115)
Over 1 ½ (-115)
Jay Cutler was supposed to be the answer for the Chicago Bears quarterback troubles that have plagued the team over the course of the past few years. However, it seems Cutler has inherited the curse as he leads the NFL with 17 interceptions on the season, including five last week in a 10-6 loss to San Francisco. At first glance an 'over' bet here looks mighty inviting. However, Cutler is not the type of quarterback that normally strings together consecutive horrific performances. In fact, throughout his four-year career, Cutler has only thrown more than one interception in just two of nine games following a game where he threw multiple interceptions. Also in the three games in his career that Cutler threw three or more interceptions, he has never backed that up with more than one pick the following week. The Eagles have a pretty strong defense, but do not expect Cutler to have another disastrous performance. He is still the right man for the job in Chicago and is too good of a quarterback to keep down.
Pick - Under 1 ½
Prop Bet No. 2 - Will New England attempt a fourth-down conversion vs. New York Jets
It's safe to say Belichick's decision last week to go for it may be one of the most scrutinized play calls in recent memory. However, do not expect that to change the future Hall of Fame coach's style of play moving forward. Belichick is one of those guys that like to control the situation and he was trying to let his offense put the game away last week. The question this week is will he attempt another fourth-down conversion or will last week's results cause him to be a little gun shy? The truth is that the Patriots attempt about at least one fourth-down conversion each game with 11 total on the year. Also, the Jets defense held the Patriots to just nine points in a 16-9 loss earlier this season. The Patriots may likely run into some situations where they need to convert a fourth down and produce points. To add to that theory, knowing Belichick he will likely go out of his way to attempt a fourth-down conversion to prove he is not bothered by the criticism.
Pick - Yes
Prop Bet No. 3 - Will either team score in the first six minutes of the game? Titans vs. Texans
The Tennessee Titans offense has really made a 360 turn since Vince Young became the starting quarterback. Young has led the Titans to three straight wins and the offense is averaging 35.5 points during that stretch. The Titans were averaging just 14 on the season prior, but the new offense will now meet up with the Texas, who are averaging 24 points per game. Points will be expected in this one and both offenses are no stranger to scoring quickly. In fact, the Titans have scored 20 points in the first quarter alone in the last three games. Also, Texans WR Andre Johnson ranks third in the NFL with 800 receiving yards on the season and will be matching up with the second worst pass defense in the NFL as the Titans allow 270 yards per game through the air. Both offenses will be poised to score quickly and that will be the case as this turns into a shootout. We have nailed all three of our previous side bets predicting teams to score in the first six minutes and let's hope that continues.
Pick - Yes
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